| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.44 |
| Last 30 Days | 50 | 42 | 0.00 | +27.65 |
| Season to Date | 111 | 117 | 0.00 | +20.43 |
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HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Toronto/CINCINNATI over 8½ -110
The Jays bullpen is overworked and somewhat banged up as well. The Reds bullpen is a complete and utter mess with a 5.74 ERA over the past 10 game. Several of the “best” relievers from both teams are unavailable today because of last night’s 14-9 marathon win by the Blue Jays. The Jays snapped out of their batting slump last night and that took a giant load off their collective shoulders. This is the type of HR hitting park that could trigger another breakout by the Jays offense.
Three names headlined the Reds' starting rotation entering the spring and Mike Leake wasn't among them. Leake's skills are generally the same as they’ve always been and he's leaning even more heavily on finesse to get the job done. Leake's already excellent control has improved even further—and into uncharted territory for him. He's also whiffing fewer batters, but the control has him above the benchmark rate we like. Leake's groundball % is also up past the 50% mark. He's outperformed his xERA by more than half a run each of the last two seasons with help from hit % and strand %. Leake is succeeding so far by doing what he already did, pitch to contact and get hitters to put the ball on the infield. But he's doing it to a more extreme degree than he has in the past. So far it's worked out somewhat with a 3.80 ERA but it's worth remembering that the approach leaves him very dependent on his infield defense and luck to succeed. If his good fortune with hit and strand rates betray him, his ERA could quickly head north and we’ve seen an example of that over his past five starts with his 6.26 ERA over that span.
J.A. Happ brings a 1.56 WHIP to the table for this start and that’s trouble waiting to happen at this venue. He also walks too many batters (24 in 53 innings and 10 over his last 31 innings). Happ has a 4.05 ERA but his xERA of 4.65 is a more accurate barometer of what to expect going forward. He’s only made nine starts this season and his first half last year was ended by a line drive to the head, as if there wasn't enough evidence that he was getting hit hard. Happ’s dominant start/disaster start splits nicely summarize the feast-or-famine nature of his season. As a fly-ball pitcher with shaky control, it's hard to see the disasters suddenly stopping. If J.A. Happ had the choice of passing up a start at any park not named Coors, it would probably be this one. Invest.
Philadelphia +136 over ST. LOUIS
4:05 PM EST. The Cardinals have dropped three in a row while scoring four runs over that span. They have been outscored 9-2 in the first two games of this series and that was with a much more favorable pitching matchup than the one here. Adam Wainwright's return from Tommy John surgery last year was a mixed bag at best but he's leaving little doubt about his status as the club's ace so far this season. In 14 starts, Wainwright has an ERA just over 2.00 and 91 Ks to go with just 21 walks in 100 innings. Still, there are some problems in his profile that suggests some luck. His 43%/23%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile does not stand out in the least. Wainwright has also been aided by a fortunate 79% strand rate and while his swinging strike rate of 9% is decent, it’s certainly not elite. Wainwright is a first class pitcher with outstanding control but he’s not unbeatable like his surface stats would lead one to believe. Besides, this one has nothing to do with fading Wainwright. This is more about fading a struggling Cardinals offense against one of the top three pitchers in baseball.
Cole Hamels has literally been the best pitcher in baseball in the month of June with a 0.30 ERA and 9.7K’s/9 in 30 innings. Hamels has done a tremendous job keeping the ball in the park (0.5 HR/9) compared to his last two seasons (0.9, 1.0). Hamels has a 1.56 ERA through five road starts. He has 76 strikeouts in 74 frames and his groundball rate since the beginning of May is an elite 53%. The Cardinals rank near the bottom in the NL against left-handed pitchers (.233 BA), and Hamels is certainly no ordinary lefty. Count on Hamels to stay hot, as this is without question one of the biggest overlays this season on one of the best pitchers in the game. If you’re looking for true value, Hamel is a must bet when being offered a tag like the one here.
Milwaukee -1½ +126 over COLORADO
4:10 PM EST. Wily Peralta has made some solid steps forward in 2014, primarily due to his growth against lefties: 6.3 K’s/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 49% groundball rate. Peralta’s 95-mph four-seamer gives hope for much more, especially with that consistent 50% groundball rate. RH bats hammer his change-up but a simple repertoire tweak could make a huge difference. In 14 starts, Peralta has put up a skills supported 2.98 ERA. On the road he’s been even better with a 4-2 record and 2.76 ERA. His ERA is bound for some regression (3.54 xERA) but it’s not an overwhelming difference. The bet here is not on Peralta as much as it is on Milwaukee’s offense pounding on Christian Friedirch.
Friedrich makes his first big league start since 2012. That year, Friedrich posted a 5-9 record with a 6.17 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 89 innings. Friedrich takes the rotation spot of Juan Nicasio, who was optioned to the minors earlier this week. Friedrich's call-up is surprising since he's been struggling at Triple-A Colorado Springs with a 7.89 ERA, and 1.47 HR/9 in 67 IP. In eight career starts at Coors Field covering 39.1 innings, Friedrich has allowed an incredible 61 hits with 10 of those leaving the yard. He has a career 8.93 ERA at Coors to go along with an oppBA of .359. The Rockies have lost four in a row and in the past two games both their starters did not make it out of the fourth inning. They Rockies staff has been battered for 31 runs against over the past four games and 21 runs against the last two. They are pretty much out of options in regard to their woeful pen. Brewers hitters will be licking their chops for this matchup against Friedrich and the Rockies pen at Coors Field and so are we.
Baltimore +104 over N.Y. YANKEES
1:05 PM EST. Bud Norris is coming off back-to-back gems against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. In 14.2 innings against that pair, Norris allowed one run, struck out 11 and walked four. In three of his last four starts, which also included the Brewers at Miller Park, Norris did not allow a single jack. Overall, the Orioles have won three in a row and four of the past five games that Norris has started. He’s not going to dazzle but with a 3.73 ERA after 13 starts, he does give the Orioles a chance to win almost every time he takes the mound. Norris is a far better option taking back a price than Vidal Nuno and the Yanks are spotting one.
Nuno was rocked for eight earned runs by the Athletics last Sunday after allowing only three earned runs over 10.1 innings in his previous two starts. Nuno has a paltry 1-3 record over 11 starts with awful ratios (5.90 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) and gives up way too many long balls (1.8 HR/9). That does not bode well here against the division rival Orioles whose lineup includes the AL leader in home runs, Nelson Cruz, and last season's major league home run leader, Chris Davis. The Yanks have won four in a row and eight of their past 10 games and as a result of that, New York comes in way overpriced. The Yankees are not a dangerous team. Truth is, of all the teams in the AL East and that includes the underachieving Rays, the Yanks are the least threating of them all and their winning ways simply cannot last. Put the New York Yankees high on your fade list because aside from Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury, this is a nothing team that is going to start losing a lot of games in the dog days of summer. Today is the first day of summer.
