| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 14 | 8 | 0.00 | +11.44 |
| Season to Date | 27 | 21 | 0.00 | +12.76 |
#633 Arkansas St +110 over ARKANSAS-LR
7:00 PM EST. In the tale of the tape, this game features two teams with identical records of 11-6 and identical conference records of 2-2, thus, this game is pivotal in the Sun Belt race. Be that Little Rock gets this one at home, that they’re the defending Sun Belt Conference Champion, a 30-game winner in the 2015-16 season and orchestrator of an upset of a #5 seed Purdue in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, one can expect to pay a premium on this host. Little Rock is also a more renowned program compared to that of the Red Wolves, who may be better known for their football program. With all of the achievements of the Trojans and the geographic orientation of this contest, UALR is spotting what will be perceived in this market as a very economical amount of points. However, it’s not. Even though the number is small, the premium you are going to pay is actually large. The team that should win is taking back points or a tag, depending on how one plays it. We’ll choose the latter and here’s why:
Though these two teams have identical records, the Red Wolves have played a much stronger schedule, as their docket ranks 84th in terms of strength of schedule (SOS) compared to that of UALR whose itinerary sits at 330th. When you weigh in out of conference scheduling in particular, the stark contrasts are that much more evident, as the Red Wolves have played the 53rd ranked out-of conference SOS compared to UALR’s 333rd ranked out-of-conference SOS. Undoubtedly, the quality of competition will prime the Red Wolves to be the better prepared club for this contest. The Red Wolves are a dangerous team to sleep on, as this is an outfit that as a 22-point road pooch, pulled off a 78-72 win at Georgetown in the preliminary stages of the regular season. This is a team that took down both Tennessee-Martin and Chattanooga on the road and went muzzle-to-muzzle with a current 15-3 Minnesota squad on the road before the Gophers would get separation to close out the second half and win by just seven, 82-75. In fact a 9-2 run was required in the latter stages of the second half for Minnesota to get away. The market will see a recognizable host that is 6-2 at home and likely be enticed into swallowing the points. Don’t get caught in doing the same. Take the tremendous value being offered on the superior side and know that even if you lose, you went with the “best if it”. Chances are, you won't be ripping up your ticket.
#519 UConn +6½ -103 over GEORGETOWN
12:00 PM EST. The Hoyas have some good wins this season, which included a victory way back on November 21 when they defeated the Ducks by four points on a neutral court. However, the Hoyas were a nine-point underdog against Oregon and that is more relevant than the final score. The very next game, G-Town played #16 Wisconsin and got buried by 16 points. Not to be outdone, the Hoyas then played Oklahoma State the next day after losing to Wisky and they got buried again, this time losing by 27. It is quite obvious that the Ducks were flat that day and we are simply not in the habit of putting a lot of weight on one result. The bigger picture is that the Hoyas are playing extremely close games when facing quality competition and this one falls into that category. Don’t get us wrong, as the Hoyas are a decent team that has played a difficult schedule but the Huskies are equally good and has a chance to win this game outright. The Hoyas most recent win over the Johnnies by a score of 83-55 has likely influenced this number. Furthermore, the Huskies come in with a mark of 7-9 and records also influence the number. Combine to the two and it has created a pretty sweet number on this live underdog.
The Huskies lost to Oregon by 10 on the same neutral floor that the Hoyas beat the Ducks by four. Again, what is more relevant to us is that the odds makers made the Ducks a -9 point choice, which was the EXACT same line that they made Oregon against Georgetown. That further suggests just how equal these two teams truly are. The Huskies have played a tough schedule too that ranks 31st in the country. UConn has lost two games in OT this season and two other games by four points or less, thus, we could easily be discussing an 11-5 Huskies team as opposed to a 7-9 one. It’s also worth mentioning that the Huskies lost to Oklahoma State by just eight points precisely around the same time that the Hoyas lost to that same team by 27. The Huskies possess one of the best defenses in the country. Their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 30th in the country, meaning that teams need more possessions to score the same amount of points against them than others do. To give you an idea of how difficult it is to beat this team by a significant amount, consider that UConn defeated the Hoyas last year despite shooting 4-for-21 in the second half and 17-for-47 overall. The Huskies had a great season last year but bad luck around the basket has prevented them from having a solid record this year. Now we get inflated points because of it and we expect this intruder to come in well under the number and perhaps even win outright.
Oklahoma State +13½ -109 over KANSAS
2:00 PM EST. The #2 ranked Jayhawks are undefeated in conference play. KU is the class of the Big 12 and a perennial national power. They've won 52 games in a row at home and 15 straight games this season. We're not here to badmouth a damn good ball club, but we are here to highlight that this is not privileged information and so when you bet on Kansas, a massive premium is attached to them. Kansas wins a ton of ball games but that's not our concern. When you factor in the “great equalizer,” in the point spread, the Jayhawks aren't nearly as impressive and that’s the real issue here, which further points to the aforementioned premium that is once again in play. Kansas has been a low percentage play when laying the lumber by going just 1-4 in their last five games against the spread. The Jayhawks are not invincible and haven't really had to deal with high pressure defenses this season. KU has played just four teams in the top-100 in turnovers forced and just one in the Top 50. The 'Hawks are guard heavy and could be in in for a little chaos when ball hungry Oklahoma State visits Allen Fieldhouse.
The Cowboys actually handed the Jayhawks their last conference loss at Allen Fieldhouse so at the very least, they are not going to be intimidated in this setting. On paper, Oklahoma State appears to be coming into this one in poor form after an 0-4 start to Big 12 play but we're not ready to write them off yet. The Cowboys can score points in bunches by averaging 87.7 points per game, which is good for second in the conference. OSU is solid without the rock as well with a +3.8 rebound margin. The Cowboys are actually out-rebounding Kansas this season by over three boards a game. Additionally, these Cowboys are battle tested by playing the eighth toughest schedule in the country and looking damn good in a lot of those games. The Cowboys defeated Georgetown by 27, they beat UConn by eight, they lost to #2 Baylor by just four and to Maryland by just one. OSU’s four losses in a row combined with KU’s incredible home winning streak has this one priced even higher. We are in the business of finding value and in that regard, taking back this many points with a team as dangerous as OSU is true value indeed. This is the type of victory that gets teams into the tournament if they are on the bubble so the Cowboys will be ready to go.
#698 E. TENN ST. -20½ -106 over W. Carolina
4:00 PM EST. Very rarely are you going to find a lower-tiered conference team like ETSU spotting 20 points or more to anyone, let alone a conference rival. The market propensity would therefore be to grab the points but doing so will likely cost you a bet because the Catamounts of West Carolina do not belong on the same court as the Buccaneers. Three of Western Carolina’s five victories have come against non-Division I programs, Hiwassee College, High Point and Mars Hill. Its other two victories were against App State and Jackson State but there was no line in the game versus Jackson State and WCU was a 10-point dog to App State. The Catamounts are a team that is used to losing by 30 points or more. In fact, they expect to. WCU has a 50-point loss and four 30 ++ point losses already this year. This is now its third consecutive game on the road after coming oh so close to beating VMI in its latest before falling by just one point. Incidentally, ETSU defeated VMI, 102-75.
The Buccaneers also have a 96-59 victory over Fordham and a 115-71 victory over the Citadel. The 13-4 Buccaneers are not shy about sticking it to someone and the timing to stick it to these dregs could not be better. You see, ETSU is coming off a rare conference home loss to UNC Greensboro so they are not going to take this opponent lightly at all and they are also in a foul mood because of it. The Buccaneers may not be covering point spreads at a high rate but they're still the class of the conference and if this game gets into the mid-70s possession wise, then ETSU has a good shot of scoring 90-plus points and covering very easily in the process. Attack, attack and attack some more.
Ark State +110 is a 2 unit bet while the other three are all to win 2 units.
