| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 29 | 31 | 0.00 | +12.50 |
| Season to Date | 30 | 35 | 0.00 | +6.58 |
All plays are for 2 units
ARIZONA +115 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. The Rangers are 9-4 and have won four in a row and six of their past seven. Recently, New York defeated Washington, 5-2. The Rangers’ record looks shiny and that win over Washington puts a stamp on their strong start but we’re not buying any of it. The Caps were all over the Rangers in a bad way. New York’s defense was running around in their own end practically the entire night. Washington outshot New York 34-21 and had a huge Corsi for percentage/advantage of 67%. The Rangers played most of that game without the puck. The Rangers other three wins over their current four-game streak came against Calgary, Toronto and Colorado and New York was not dominant in any of them. This is a Rangers team that ranks 27th in puck possession. They rank 24th in shots against and the only reason they’re winning so many games lately is due to nothing but pure puck luck. Regression is on the way. After playing in Colorado last night, Henrik Lundqvist is very likely going to get the day off here. Even if he does not, we’re still playing the Coyotes.
The Coyotes went into New York on Oct 22 and lost 4-1. Arizona outshot the Rangers 35-27 and held a 53-47% puck possession advantage. The ‘Yotes have now won three of their past five games. One of those defeats occurred against Vancouver and once again, Arizona held a significant edge in shots on goal and puck possession. Arizona is one of the best-coached teams in the league. They’ve held their past four opponents to 28 shots or fewer. The Coyotes are a team that few watch. The market is completely unaware of how difficult an out they’ve been all season long and how greatly they have improved from a year ago. You take some enthusiastic young talent, give them some great coaching and some victories over some elite talent (they have wins over Pitt and L.A. already) and anything is possible. What we know for sure is that the Coyotes bring it every game. They love coming to the rink and it shows in their efforts. There are some ex-Rangers on the Coyotes that will also be a little extra jacked up to face them again. The Rangers could get caught napping here after playing in Colorado last night but even if that isn’t the case, give Arizona a great chance to beat this overrated team that is playing much worse than their record indicates.
BUFFALO +135 over Vancouver
OT included. The Canucks have three wins in their last nine games with two of those victories occurring against the Coyotes and Flyers. We know this Canucks team is highly competitive and a tough out but they are still not good enough to be road chalk, especially in a matinee game on the East Coast that starts at 1:00 PM EST. Against Arizona, the Canucks were outshot, 31-22 and they mustered just 20 shots on net in their last game against the Penguins.
This wager however, is more about sticking with the undervalued Sabres than it is about fading the Canucks. Buffalo is coming off a 4-1 loss to the Lightning but Tampa scored three goals early to put the Sabres in a deep hole. After the first period in which the Bolts scored three times on 12 shots, Buffalo allowed just 10 shots on net the rest of the way. This is still an outstanding puck possession team with a Corsi for percentage that ranks sixth in the NHL. Vancouver’s puck possession percentage ranks third last in the NHL ahead of only Detroit and Colorado. The Sabres 26.8 shots against per game ranks third in the league. We had our concerns about the Sabres being flat after four days off against Tampa Bay and even mentioned it in our write-up but they’ll be no such concern for this one. After the first period on Thursday, the Sabres were not flat. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy was under siege in Thursday's second period. Not everything is about shots on net or puck possession but it’s a good barometer of how teams are playing. Buffalo has playmakers, a strong set of forwards and a solid defense that moves the puck out efficiently. Buffalo is still not getting market respect and until that changes, we are not going to let up in trying to take advantage of some favorable lines. This line is hugely favorable and frankly, we’re not even sure the Canucks warrant being favored.
St. Louis +112 over NASHVILLE
OT included. We like the Predators as a team. They have a talented collection of youth and veterans and they almost always have a fighters chance to win. It’s a rare day when the Preds are out of a game. However, Nashville returns home from a difficult four-game trip through San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim and Minnesota. They went 2-2 on said trip, winning in San Jose and Minnesota both by one goal while losing to the Ducks and Kings. We also still have our doubts about Pekka Rinne, who has posted save percentages of .857, .862 and .862 again in three of his past six starts. Every time we watch this guy play, he’s flopping around making more lucky saves then we care to count. Rinne gets lots of positive press and is sitting with a 1.98 GAA and .926 save percentage overall this year but we’re not liking what we visually see. We don’t have the stats to back it up yet but we see Rinne as a liability and not an asset. That’s just an opinion but we’re suggesting his numbers are in for a big-time correction.
Meanwhile, the Blues are still a regular season juggernaut with outstanding numbers both below and above the surface. St. Louis has won four of five with only loss over that span occurring against the Kings. The Blue Notes are also getting healthier, as Kevin Shattenkirk returns for this one while Vladimir Tarasenko also returned this week. The Blue Notes are 9-3-1 after playing the fourth toughest schedule in the league. They are a top-5 team in just about every category, which includes puck possession, where they rank second in the league behind Washington. The Blues are certainly worth a close look when taking back a tag and we especially like that they catch the Preds coming back off that West Coast trip.
Florida +133 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. The Kings went on a dominant 7-0 run recently, which proved once again just how difficult they can be. Since then, however, Los Angeles has dropped two of three to Chicago and Columbus. We would not have our concerns about a couple of losses if they were just that but L.A. is going into its second straight year of inconsistencies. The Kings were streaky all of last season and they’ve been streaky this year with three losses to begin the season, followed by seven wins, followed by losing two of three. We have seen the Kings get lazy at home too for stretches. The Kings are a dangerous team indeed but also one that cannot be trusted in this price range against this quality intruder.
Florida’s stock is low again after four straight losses and that makes us instant buyers at this price. The Panthers will play the final game of a three-game trip to the West Coast and so far they have just one point to show for it. That was against Anaheim on Wednesday when the Panthers blew a 2-1 lead with five seconds remaining in regulation. Thursday night in San Jose, the Panthers were flat as hell and sloppy. Their Coach, Gerard Gallant called it the teams’ worst performance of the year. What follows a poor effort is usually a strong one and so we’ll put that to the test here. Florida is completely off the radar. They’re not scoring a lot and they’re not winning a lot but this is now dig-down deep time to try and salvage a game on this trip. The Panthers are too talented to keep losing at this pace but in their defense they have played a tough schedule recently with games against Dallas, Pittsburgh, Chicago Anaheim and San Jose, all on the road and games at home against Washington and Boston. The bottom line here is that this is a game between two decent teams in which a favorite that lacks explosiveness is tasked with spotting a huge tag to a proven underdog performer that plays efficiently in all areas. We’ll bite.
