| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 34 | 0.00 | +5.49 |
| Season to Date | 30 | 37 | 0.00 | +3.61 |
All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Minnesota -½ +165 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. When teams get into an OT game with the Canadiens and don’t win it in the five-minute drill, chances are they are going to lose it in the shootout because Carey Price doesn’t often lose shootouts. Instead of taking the Wild including OT, we see much more value in backing them in regulation only. Aside from goaltending, there is a lot to like about the Wild here. First, there is a ceremony before the game begins that is sure to take at least a half hour. The Canadiens are retiring Guy Lapointe’s #5 jersey and that’s a bit odd considering he played in the 70’s. In any case, these ceremonies are a major distraction. We wish we had a schedule of every pre-game ceremony in every sport because we’d bet against it every time. The home team stands on their feet for 30 to 45 minutes while the opposition is in the locker room sitting down and getting jacked up to get on the ice. Besides all that, the Habs are simply not very good. After getting whacked by the Flames and Blackhawks in back-to-back games this past week by a combined score of 11-2, Montreal responded with a 2-1 OT win over Buffalo. The shots on net in that Sabres game was 32-32 and it was the only game this year that the Sabres played and didn’t get badly outshot. We’ve been saying all year that Montreal is grossly overvalued. Of their nine wins only one was justified. When they win it’s because of Carey Price and not because they’re the better team. The Habs may win here because of the big edge they have in net but once again they’ll very likely get badly outplayed.
The Wild are the complete opposite of Montreal. They outplay every opponent and lose because they have inadequate goaltending. Against Ottawa on Thursday, Minnesota outshot the Sens 35-17 and lost 3-0. It’s been the same story for the Wild over and over this year in that they usually hold a 2/1 or 3/2 edge in shots on net and an even bigger edge in time of possession in the offensive end. Minnesota is 7-5 and if they had a quality goaltender they would have fewer losses than any team in the league. Despite the shaky goaltending we’ll continue to back the Wild at these prices, especially against weaker teams because their chances of winning are greater than their chances of losing.
N.Y. Rangers -½ +170 over TORONTO
Regulation only. The Maple Leafs went into New York on October 12th and completely annihilated a listless Rangers team, 6-3. The Maple Leafs scored five goals in the second period of that game against Queen Henrik before he was yanked in favor of Cam Talbot. Talbot came in and stopped all 12 shots he faced and the best news is that Talbot gets the call for this one. The Rangers also get the gritty and talented Derek Stepan back for this game and that’s a huge morale boost for this team. The Rangers are playing much better the past few games as well. They were the better team against St. Louis two games back but lost in OT. In a 1-0 loss to Winnipeg last Saturday, they outshot the Jets 38-25. The Rangers have picked up points in four straight and in four of their past five and we can assure you that a stronger effort against the Maple Leafs this time around is forthcoming.
Teams get jacked up to play in Toronto on Saturday night. Toronto is 1-7 in their past 8 Saturday games with only win over that span occurring against Chicago last week in a game the Leafs were outshot in 47-27. Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses to Arizona and Colorado and that’s not an easy trip. Along the way, they lost Jake Gardiner to an injury, not to mention two gritty players in Brandon Kozun and Daniel Winnick, although the latter hasn’t been ruled out yet. Aside from the Sabres, the Maple Leafs defense remains the league’s worst. They can’t move the puck out consistently and continue to cough it up in their own end when the opposition pressures them. The Leafs have not made any improvements whatsoever. They’re the same garbage team that win games when Jonathan Bernier and/or James Reimer stand on their head. They had a chance to defeat two very beatable teams in their recent two-game trip but instead picked up one lucky point when they pulled the goalie and tied it late in the third. Now they’ll return home to face an energized Rangers team that is looking better each game. The Leafs aren’t going to outplay the Rangers and they’re not going to get any softies on Talbot either. Rangers straight up in regulation is the call.
Winnipeg -½ +200 over OTTAWA
Regulation only. The Senators are the only team in the NHL without a regulation loss at home but that cannot last much longer because they are the second best team on the ice almost every game. Out of 30 teams, the Sens are 28th in time of possession in the offensive end. That puts them ahead of only Colorado and Buffalo. Shot efficiency rating measures a team’s ability to hit the net and that’s a stat that has been around since 1990. Teams’ with a low shot efficiency rating virtually have little chance of finishing high in the standings or even making the playoffs. 14 teams miss the playoffs every year. Last season the four worst teams in shot efficiency rating, Buffalo, Toronto, Edmonton and Washington all missed the playoffs and the same applied in 2012 and 2013. This year the Sens shot efficiency rating is 0.82. The league average is 1.04. The Sens rank third last in the NHL and the proof is in the pudding that their winning ways cannot continue. The Senators have been extremely fortunate but a serious regression is just around the corner.
Winnipeg is so solid throughout its entire lineup. It may surprise you to learn that Winnipeg has picked up points in seven straight with five victories and two OT losses. Three of those five victories were on the road against the Islanders, Rangers and Chicago. The Jets have also killed off 17 straight minors and that includes a perfect 5-5 against Pittsburgh on Thursday against the greatest PP that this league has seen since the Gretzky days. Pittsburgh had connected on 9 PP goals in 24 opportunities before the Jets shut them down. The Pens PP % of 36.5% is pure sickness. The Jets goals against per game of 2.07 rank them 6th in the league. Analytically speaking, the Jets rank high in several key categories and it’s also worth noting that unlike previous years, Winnipeg is playing their best hockey on the road. Andrej Pavelec had previously been a liability for the Jets. This year he’s played outstanding so far if it continues the Jets will have few flaws, as they have goal scorers, point producers and an outstanding group of blueliners. Taking back this sweet price, Winnipeg offers up way too much value to ignore.
Calgary -½ +150 over FLORIDA
3:00 PM EST. Regulation only. In two games against Philadelphia this past week, the Panthers scored three goals. In their past 10 games, the Panthers have scored one goal seven times. In other words, Florida’s most common number of goals scored per game is one. The Panthers have played two 1-0 games so far and five 2-1 games. When you score once per game you are always in serious danger of losing and that makes taking back a tag against the Panthers very appealing indeed. Florida has been stingy defensively but we couldn’t care less because if the Flames can score twice, we have a great chance of cashing this ticket.
Calgary continues its five game road trip here. They have gone 2-1 thus far with victories over Montreal and Washington and a loss against Tampa Bay. Incidentally, the Flames scored 12 times in those three games and that’s with the electric Johnny Gaudreau very much under the weather with flu-like symptoms. Aside from being the hardest working team on ice with perhaps the best core of defensemen, the best thing about wagering on the Flames is that they stay out of the box. Over their past nine games, Calgary has taken just 17 minors, which is less than two a game. Over their past four games, Calgary has taken just six minors. That’s significant here because the Panthers are less capable of scoring on five on five play than any team in the NHL. In 11 games, Florida has 10 five on five goals, which is four less than the Sabres 14. The Flames have scored 28 five on five goals. Lastly, this is a matinee game in Florida that goes off at 3 PM. There will be more people watching bowling in Florida than there will be at this game and that doesn’t bode well for the Panthers morale. Playing to a ¾ empty arena is somewhat depressing and not very energizing for the host and these determined Flames figure to take advantage of everything wrong with the Panthers.
