| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | -8.32 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 48 | 0.00 | -9.48 |
| Season to Date | 70 | 85 | 0.00 | -3.25 |
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Listed pitchers must go
Colorado and Chicago are for 2 units, the others are to win 2 units
Colorado +130 over PHILADELPHIA
3:00 PM EST. Aaron Harang has started the season with a flourish (1.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). But nearly all the credit for his success can be attributed to a trifecta of support in his low 27% hit rate, unsustainable 82% strand rate and 3% hr/f. Harang’s groundball rate of 34% is also weak. His fly-ball tilt (46%), 89-mph four-seam fastball velocity, and HR-friendly home-park continue to give him a lot of blowup risk. Perhaps Harang has some value taking back a price but as the favorite, he has very little.
After being taken 46th overall in the 2012 draft and signing for $1 million, Eddie Butler finished the 2013 season at Double-A Tulsa. He returned there in 2014, and while trying to utilize his four-seamer more, he began overthrowing, causing his arm slot to rise slightly. His sinker didn't have the depth it had a year earlier, and his slider and curveball weren't as sharp. Hence, Butler wasn't ready when he made his major league debut on June 6, 2014. The following day, he showed up with soreness behind his right shoulder and ended up on the disabled list. Butler's sinker, changeup and slider are plus pitches with terrific movement. He also has a developing four-seamer that will get up to 97 mph and an average curveball that is more of a show-me pitch. Butler's sinker, his most dominant pitch, sits at 93-94 mph and has late action. So does his 87 mph changeup, which is his best secondary pitch. His 86 mph slider is sharp and tight but needs a bit more downward tilt. Butler eventually returned to Tulsa and made two late-September starts for the Rockies, but after the second he developed upper-back soreness that caused him to miss the Arizona Fall League. He has gotten stronger and his raw stuff gives him a ceiling as a No. 2 starter. Butler’s 2-5 record and 4.60 ERA is not pretty but he has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his starts, which includes three starts at Coors Field. He has allowed three runs or less in four of his past five starts, where the Rockies have scored just 15 times over those five starts. Butler has some control issues but against this free-swinging team and taking back a price, he definitely has a good chance for a strong outing.
Toronto -107 over MINNESOTA
2:00 PM EST. Kyle Gibson has turned in two mediocre seasons since his return from Tommy John surgery in 2011, but has shown glimpses of becoming a more trustworthy option both in 2014 and 2015. With a 2.72 ERA over nine starts this year, Gibson has attracted quite a bit of market attention. We’re not buying it. One thing that is extremely noticeable is that Gibson's already subpar K-rate has fallen beyond your typical soft-tosser territory. Gibson has 27 K’s in 56 innings. His control looks stagnant as well, although an upwards first-pitch strike % trend may bring him closer to his better minor league control as the season wears on. He's still heavily inducing ground balls, which actually doesn't bode well for hit %, as grounders have a higher percentage of becoming hits than fly-balls. It's clear that you should use Gibson’s 4.14 xERA as your guide and if you've been riding his hot streak thus far, prepare yourself for a crash landing. A 9% swing and miss rate suggests strikeouts should improve some but that's a bit of a stretch for a pitcher that didn't necessarily have that high of a ceiling anyway. Don't expect that sparkling ERA to last long
Aaron Sanchez has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts. Sanchez brings a 3.98 ERA into this game after nine starts but his oppBA of .237 is impressive. Sanchez has control issues and that’s the only reason he struggles. He’s walked 34 batters in 52 innings, which equals to 5.9 walks per nine innings. There is no denying Sanchez’s talent. He has filthy stuff and if he’s throwing strikes he can as tough to beat as any pitcher in the game. Sanchez’s 64%/17%/19% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split is one of the best batted ball profiles in the majors. He’s a tweak away from becoming elite. The Twins have never faced Sanchez, which also works in his favor. Lastly, Minnesota is a free-swinging group. They rank 26th out of 30 teams in drawing a walk. Only Philly, Colorado, the White Sox and K.C. swing at more pitches outside the zone than the Twins. The Blue Jays had a great momentum building win yesterday when they trailed 4-0 after one inning and won 6-4. We like their chances of carrying that momentum into another victory here.
Chicago +156 over HOUSTON
Current White Sox have 17 hits in 55 AB’s against Dallas Keuchel for a BA of .309. Keuchel’s 6-1 record in 10 starts with a 1.98 ERA has him and the Astros very overpriced here. No starter in MLB has received more help than Keuchel so far, which is reflected in his 20% hit rate, 84% strand rate and 4% HR/F. Once those marks regress or normalize, his almost league-average skills likely will push his ERA well over 3. Keuchel has just 49 K’s in 73 frames and his 89.6 MPH fastball leaves much to be desired. Keuchel is definitely a decent pitcher but he’s definitely not better than Jose Quintana.
By year’s end, xERA almost always holds true. It can be frustrating to see these average pitchers thrive early in the year and beat us but it all evens out over time. Just stick with it and these true values plays will eventually start hitting at a very decent percentage. That said, Jose Quintana is anything but average and can’t be this big of a dog against the Astros. Quintana is quietly building on his breakout season of 2013. At age 26, he has been extremely reliable for two years and counting. In 54 innings, Quintana has a BB/split of 15/48. His groundball rate has increased from 46% over his first four starts to 56% over his last five starts. He’s 2-5 with an ERA of 4.67 but pay no attention to that, as his 65% strand rate has been extremely unlucky. Over his past six starts, Quintana has allowed two runs or fewer in five of them and has only been taken yard one time over those six starts. A pitcher this good does not hold a 4.67 ERA for long and if you were to make one bet on a pitcher’s ERA to come down significantly over the next three months, that wager should be placed on Jose Quintana. Big time overlay here.
SAN DIEGO -110 over Pittsburgh (Pinny)
The Padres broke the Pirates seven-game winning streak yesterday and we often see consecutive losses after a teams’ long winning streak is broken. Spotting this cheap price with Tyson Ross against Charlie Morton is value at its best. Ross rules the day with this favorable matchup at home in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Ross needs to rein in his uncharacteristic BB/9 of 4.6 but with his career-high groundball rate of 64% and 10.4 K’s/9, he doesn't even need the correction coming in his 36% hit rate to be an elite option. In 10 starts, Ross has a 80%/0% dominant start/disaster start split. His first pitch strike rate of 64% strongly supports fewer walks in the future. Ross is missing bats at an elite rate and that is reflected in his 14% swing and miss rate and 69 K’s in 59 innings. His best pitch is the slider (25% swing and miss rate) and he has used it even more—up 4% to a whopping 45% this year. He has always induced a lot of groundballs, but his % is up to an eye-catching personal best 64%. Ross has clearly pitched better than his ERA and WHIP indicate and we get to benefit from his surface stats by playing him at a very cheap price.
Charlie Morton made his first start of the year last week against the Fish and picked up a 4-2 win. He allowed eight hits in seven frames and stranded 86% of those base-runners. Morton didn’t walk a batter but he wasn’t missing many bats either, as evidenced by his 5% swing and miss rate. One game means nothing. Morton wasn’t bad at all and he wasn’t great. He’s always been serviceable with a strong groundball tilt but he started the year late and he’s not going to thrive for extended stretches and probably won’t hit his peak until late June or thereabouts. Tyson Ross -110 over Charlie Morton is a wager that must be made, period, because of the extreme value it holds. Ross is elite, Morton is not.
Scouting:
Alex Gonzalez (RHP - TEX)
The Rangers first-round selection from 2013, Chi-Chi (as he likes to be called) has an exciting four-pitch mix, a lean and projectable 6’3”, 210-pound frame, and good overall polish from his time at Oral Roberts. His plus fastball works 92-95 with good movement and he can locate the pitch across the whole zone. Gonzalez’s second wipeout pitch is a 83-87 mph slider, also with excellent movement. Both the curveball and changeup are inconsistent but show average to above-average potential in time. His ability to use all four pitches will be central to hitting his upside, as he already keeps the ball on the ground and minimizes hard contact, giving the overall package a solid mid-rotation starting profile with possibly more in the tank. Gonzalez has struggled this season with his repertoire, walking nearly four batters per nine innings and showing the most depressed K-rate of his short career (5.4 K’s/9). With Phil Klein optioned back to Round Rock, Gonzalez will get a shot at a start in the rotation, but his 2015 stats portend more seasoning is needed in the minors. His career minor league numbers: 224.0 IP, 3.17 ERA, 7.0 K’s/9, 2.3 BB/9, 10 HR, .250 oppBA, 1.29 WHIP.
STATS: 2015 Round Rock (AAA) 8 gs, 3-5, 4.15 ERA, 43.1 IP, 3.9 BB/9, 5.4 K’s/9, 2 HR, .275 oppBA, 1.50 WHIP
