4 reasons NE wins the Super Bowl

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

[h=3]According to numberfire

#1An Improved Rush Defense[/h]The Seahawks finished 2014 with the best rushing offense our database has ever seen. Russell Wilson ended the year as the top-ranked quarterback in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP), and his 60.50 total was the second best one we've seen since 2000 (Michael Vick's 2004 was better). Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch's 27.34 Rushing NEP was better than any other running back, and the best total he's accumulated in his career.
The Patriots finished the 2014 season ranked 17th within our schedule-adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP metric. This looks like the matchup to exploit for Seattle, and it's one they'll try to exploit. But it's not as bad for New England as it looks. Over the second half of the season, the rush defense jumped 11 spots in the rankings, playing like a top-10 unit during the team's final stretch.
Stopping Seattle's ground attack is key for the Patriots on Sunday, and they may be able to do it better than most believe.

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

[h=3]Rob Gronkowski[/h]Once Rob Gronkowski started seeing an uptick in volume after Week 4, the entire Patriots' offense changed. He's a matchup nightmare, and his advanced analytics show just that, outscoring the second-best tight end, Antonio Gates, by 22 Reception Net Expected Points this season. That type of gap in NEP was the same we saw between Gates and the number-eight tight end, Coby Fleener.
On the season, 11 of the 17 passing touchdowns that Seattle allowed this season came against the tight end position. Some of their competition was tough (including five top-11 tight ends in terms of Reception NEP), but some of the tight ends they faced had their best games of the season from an advanced analytics perspective, including Antonio Gates, Mychal Rivera, and Jason Witten. Within the context of Seattle's secondary -- which is beastly -- the tight end position has found moderate success. That's a big advantage for a team with such an important tight end weapon.

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

[h=3]Special Teams[/h]Last week, our own Brandon Gdula analyzed the special teams aspect of the big game. The winner stemming from the analysis? New England, and it wasn't very close.
The Patriots ranked third in Offensive Special Teams NEP, and first on the defensive side. Meanwhile, Seattle ranked 21st offensively and 12th defensively on special teams. New England's offensive special teams ability actually added 27.12 more expected points over Seattle's this year, good for 1.66 points per game. Considering the spread of this game and how close it will likely be, that could be the difference.

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

[h=3]Tom Brady[/h]After struggling at the start of the year, Tom Brady's turned things around and has played like the Tom Brady we've all watched over the last decade. That's a big advantage for New England, who, analytically (and obviously) have the best quarterback in the game.
As a quick comparison, Brady accumulated 123.69 Passing Net Expected Points this season, good for a per drop back rate of 0.20 NEP. That was good for fifth best in the NFL.
Russell Wilson, on the other hand, saw just 47.65 Passing Net Expected Points this year, which equated to 0.10 NEP per drop back. Clearly, he wasn't nearly as effective.
If you factor in Wilson's absurdly good rushing ability, Brady was still better by roughly 22 expected points this season. This is a win for New England.