| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.64 |
| Last 30 Days | 26 | 30 | 0.00 | +6.84 |
| Season to Date | 121 | 137 | 0.00 | +29.25 |
All plays are for 2 units
POSTED At 12:45 PM EST.
Edmonton +148 over OTTAWA
OT included. Our only concern with playing the Oilers here is that it’s their fifth road game in seven days but they’ve had a full day off since defeating the Canadiens on Thursday and the trip from Montreal to Ottawa isn’t a difficult one. Edmonton outshot Montreal, 38-26. The game prior, they outshot the Islanders, 36-28. The Oilers recently fired away 40 shots on net against the Sharks in San Jose. These Oilers are creating chances at a high rate recently while allowing 28 shots on net or fewer in five straight. The Oilers have won six of its last 11 games and they appear to be a more cohesive unit of late as well. As one Oiler put it after they won in Montreal, “It’s a lot more run coming to the rink these days”.
Let’s forget about the Oilers for a minute because this one is more about taking back a price like this against the Senators. Ottawa should not be favored in this range against anyone. The Senators are an analytics nightmare. They have one win in their last five games and that lone victory occurred in Buffalo in which they allowed 36 shots on net and were being outshot at one point in the second period 15-0. Ottawa has scored two goals or less in four of its last five games. They have spent more time in their own end over the last 12 games than any team in the NHL. In 5-on-5 play, the Oilers rank 27th in shots on net allowed, ahead of only Colorado, Toronto and Buffalo. Ottawa’s three victories in their past 11 games occurred against Arizona, Toronto and Buffalo and they didn’t deserve to win two of those. Ottawa is very simply a bad team spotting significant juice to a team that is playing better than they are. That’s a bet we’ll make every time and make no exceptions here.
Toronto +201 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal is the latest team lying in wait to put a beating on the Maple Leafs but for the first time in a while, Toronto will be under no pressure to win. Montreal is the team that’ll be feeling the pressure here because they’re supposed to win easy against this hated rival. We’ll get back to the Maple Leafs in a second but first let us get to the Canadiens. Montreal has 74 points, which leads the East. That this team has more points than Detroit, the Islanders, Tampa Bay, the Rangers and Pittsburgh is a bigger miracle than the “Miracle on Ice” back in 1980. The Canadiens are the only team in the NHL that allows more than 30 shots on net a game and is still in a playoff position. The ONLY reason they win games at a high rate is because of Carey Price. Price should win every award that the NHL gives out because without him, Montreal would be hovering around in the standings with the likes of Columbus, Toronto, Ottawa and Philadelphia. Montreal doesn’t get dominated but they sure as hell do not dominate the opposition like their record suggests or even outplay them. Montreal’s last six games have come against Arizona, Buffalo, Boston, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Edmonton. The Canadiens are 3-3 over that span with losses to Arizona, Edmonton and Buffalo. They defeated Philly in OT. Prior to that, the Habs had back-to-back 1-0 victories over Washington and the Rangers but deserved neither. Price is indeed part of the team and he gives them a chance to win every game but Montreal is in line for regression because average hockey teams cannot maintain a winning pace like the one the Habs have been on all season long. Furthermore, as good as Price has been, he always seems to have some trouble against the Maple Leafs. Last year, Price went 2-2 against Toronto with a 3.28 GAA and .906 save percentage. In just one game against the Leafs this season, Price’s save percentage was .889. In the 2012-13 season, Price went 1-3 against the Maple leafs with a 4.12 GAA and a save % of .840. Just like Montreal has Tuukka Rask’s number, the Maple Leafs always find ways to score against Price, as they have his number.
When the Maple Leafs were winning games for the first three months of the season, we told you it couldn’t last and it didn’t. The Maple Leafs subsequently fired Randy Carlyle and the results with Peter Horachek have been disastrous. Believe what you want but Toronto has been playing WAY better under Horachek than they did under Carlyle or Ron Wilson for that matter. The Leafs are a better team in virtually EVERY meaningful statistical category under Horachek than under Carlyle, and in some cases by a huge margin.The Leafs were due to have a bad stretch since their PDO (an advanced stat that combines save % and shooting % in an effort to measure overall performance of a team and highlight teams with outsized "luck") was high for most of the year (thanks to great goaltending) and has now settled to around average, thanks to average goaltending and a really unlucky shooting percentage. Indeed the Leafs are fragile mentally but for this one game they can forget about everything and just play hard with no worries. They are expected to lose so they have nothing to lose. In other words, the Leafs are playing with house money here and their better play of late is about to pay off. In three straight losses to New Jersey, Philly and Nashville, Toronto dominated play and outshot that trio by a combined 92-67. They also dominated Ottawa and lost 4-3. The Leafs are actually playing way better now than they were when they were winning but the results just aren’t there. What we know for sure is they have a good chance to win here. They are playing too good to lose at this pace and they deserve better. At this price against the most overrated and overvalued team in the league, Toronto offers up perhaps the best value on the board. We’re not hoping for a Leafs win, we’re expecting it.
Columbus +214 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. Seriously? +216? Get in line for this one because the Jackets are just too good a hockey team to ignore at a price like this one. In fact, Columbus is actually healthier now than they’ve been all year. When you look at the Jackets injury list, it looks long and that’s only because the current injured players were replacement players for the regular forwards, who are now all healthy. The Jackets rallied from a 3-1 deficit last night to defeat the Flyers in OT but it should have never come down to that, as Philly was clearly the second best team on the ice. The Jackets dominated for the first 10 minutes of every period. Their relentless pursuit of the puck was a thing of beauty and we can’t imagine it’ll tail off here. We actually suspect the Jackets will be better tonight after having all four lines healthy for the second consecutive game. The Blue Jackets fourth line of Corey Tropp, Mark Letestu and Jared Boll can take the play to the opposition on any shift. That line gives the Jackets the luxury of a balanced attack in which the coach can put out any one of four lines at any time. Playing the tail-end of back-to-backs means nothing here, as Columbus had been off since Monday prior to last night so they have plenty left. The Jackets have now won three of their past four with only loss over that span occurring against Los Angeles. In their last three wins over St. Louis, Ottawa and Philly, the Jackets have outscored that group 15-5. They could definitely go off again here against Jaroslav Halak.
In the world of hockey analytics, the theory is that a team's record in one-goal games is almost entirely unpredictable. The Islanders last four wins over Toronto, Edmonton, Buffalo and Philadelphia have been by identical 3-2 scores. The Islanders are an extremely lucky 22-4-1 in one-goal games this year for an unsustainable winning percentage of .815. That’s not just an anomaly, it’s next to impossible to maintain. Prior to those last four 3-2 victories in which they could have just as easily gone 0-4, the Islanders lost three straight to Detroit, Boston and Florida and was outscored 13-5. Prior to defeating Edmonton and Toronto, Halak posted save percentages of .800, .889, .897 and .875 in four straight games. Halak is just as likely to give up four or five as he is one or two. Dude is fighting it right now. To take the Islanders luck even a step further, consider that they rank dead last in the NHL in killing penalties. Man, you talk about puck luck and a charmed life and the Islanders are at the top of the list. This team is in huge danger of losing as a big favorite here and we are so on it.
Carolina +167 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Coach Mike Yeo is a genius when Devan Dubnyk is in net. After all, Yeo has guided the Wild to a 10-1-1 record since they acquired Dubnyk. Mike Yeo is an idiot and needs to be fired when Darcy Kuemper is in net. You see how ridiculous these TV analysts sound? From Kypreos to Watters to Reonick, these morons actually think we care or believe what they have to say. They insult our intelligence every time they speak. Only a complete idiot couldn’t see the correlation between losing and Minnesota’s brutal goaltending before they acquired Dubnyk. Well, Dubnyk gets the night off here and now we get to take back a ridiculous price against a putrid and rusty Kuemper. No chance are we passing up on it. The market forgets quickly and it has forgotten how the Wild just kept losing game after game with Kuemper in net. The entire team has a different mindset too and it’s not a positive one.
Meanwhile, the ‘Canes are playing great hockey. It may surprise you to learn that they had picked up points in seven of eight games prior to losing to Anaheim on Thursday. They outshot the Ducks 36-17 and lost 2-1. The ‘Canes are 10-6 over their past 16 games. They lost to Nashville, St. Louis (in OT), Vancouver, St. Louis again in OT again, the Rangers and Anaheim. They have competed against the elite while beating every team not in a playoff position over that 16-game span. Carolina is scoring goals at a good pace and they’re playing outstanding defensively as well. They now catch the Wild in a difficult spot. Minnesota has been going too good. They are giving Dubnyk a break here in preparation for a three-game, Western Canada trip that begins Monday in Vancouver in what will be its most important three-game trip of the year. The Wild are also without a couple of key forwards that didn’t hurt them in their 2-1 win over Florida. Minnesota has scored two goals or less in six of its last 10 with a healthy lineup and a reliable goaltender backing them. That is not the case here, This Minnesota team is extremely ripe to get beat here and with that garbage can in net fir the Wild, the 'Canes offer up tremendous value.
