| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 45 | 0.00 | +1.00 |
| Season to Date | 65 | 73 | 0.00 | +10.47 |
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Listed pitchers must go
All plays are 2 units w/exception of the Total play, which is 2.06 units to win 2
Philadelphia +155 over N.Y. METS (SIA)
The Mets were just swept in Pittsburgh and were outscored in the three-game set, 21-4. New York has dropped five of their last six games and over that span they have been outscored 40-11 while losing by six runs or more four times. This is not a team you want to be spotting heavy lumber with right now, especially with a 42-year-old making his 10th start of the year. Bartolo Colon is an amazing human being. He has walked just 3 guys in 56 innings while striking out 46 batters. For Colon, it’s all about location, as he can hit his spots like nobody else. However, age catches up to all of us and Colon’s days have to be numbered. He’s very likely going to get by this year and probably even next year but one has to expect more disasters going forward. This grizzled vet's M.O. is “here it is, see what you can do”. A low swinging strike rate says hitters do something, but not enough to knock him from the game. The risk is that one day it becomes batting practice and with his groundball/fly-ball rate of 38%/42% trending in the wrong direction, that day may suddenly hit Colon over the head with a lead bat sooner rather than later. It would surprise us not if the Mets won this game by five runs going away but Bartolo Colon CANNOT be in this price range, ever.
The Phillies are at least competing every day. They may finish last in the division but they are not as easy an out as most expected. The Phillies lost two of three over the weekend in Washington but they’ve still won eight of their past 12 games. They have one-run losses to Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer over that span while defeating Stephen Strasburg and Francisco Liriano among others. Severino Gonzalez comes in with an ERA of 7.11 but that is due to one start (his MLB debut) in which he was whacked by the Cardinals to the tune of 7 runs in 2.2 innings. Gonzalez followed that up with starts in Atlanta and Colorado and allowed just two runs in Atlanta in five frames and one run in Colorado at Coors Field in five innings also. Gonzalez can pitch. Like Colon, he has great command and rarely walks anyone. His fastball works in the 88-92 mph range with his cutter being his most effective pitch. Gonzalez doesn’t strike out many but he has a good arsenal of four pitches that he uses at any time in any count. The Mets have never seen Gonzalez and they’re in poor form right now. Big overlay here.
Kansas City +120 over N.Y. YANKEES (SIA)
The Yankees have lost six straight. They were -160 or more in all three games against Texas this past weekend and lost 10-9, 15-4 and 5-2 last night. They continue to be grossly overvalued and so we’re going to have to start attacking them more frequently. Nathan Eovaldi is not particularly fond of his new home ballpark, as all three of his starts at Yankee Stadium have resulted in a disaster. In three home starts versus Boston, the Mets and Orioles, Eovaldi has been tagged for 21 hits and 10 runs in 16 innings. Three of those 21 hits left the yard. Overall, the long ball has been a problem for him, allowing six over his last five starts. Pitching at Yankee Stadium does not help the cause (+29% LHB HR, +19% RHB HR). Now things get even tougher for Eovaldi, as he’ll face a Royals team that has struck out the fewest times in the entire league and whose .289 team batting average leads MLB.
We’re not even going to write about Jeremy Guthrie because this wager has nothing to do with backing him. Guthrie is always capable of a blowup and we would not recommend playing him when spotting a tag but that’s not the case here. This bet is all about value. It’s about fading the reeling Yankees and taking back a tag with the far superior team. Maybe the Yanks have a slight edge on the mound but even if they do, it’s not a significant one.
Miami/PITTSBURGH over 7½ -103 (Pinny)
It is somewhat tempting to play the Marlins at a price here but the Pirates went off for 21 runs at home this past weekend in three games against the Mets pitching staff. We don’t want to play against the Pirates when they are heating up because they have shown a propensity for big runs over the past couple of years. The Pirates can run their winning streak to four here. Against David Phelps, the possibility of Pittsburgh scoring a bunch more is high. Phelps was moved to the rotation when Henderson Alvarez hit the disabled list in mid-April. He’s responded with a 1.75 ERA across six starts but we’re not buying any of it because Phelps’ skills are still pretty mediocre.
His strikeout rate currently sits at a career low, and the swings and misses are few and far between (5%). Phelps has been extremely fortunate to this point that none of the fly balls that he's allowed have left the park. Marlins Park (-38% LH HR, -22% RH HR) should continue to help limit the homers, but he'll obviously allow some, which will send his ERA north. Phelps has provided some decent innings for the Marlins but the skills and home run per fly ball rate indicate that he's not really pitching better, just getting a little luckier. Expect the Pirates to score at least three runs with five or more being just as distinct a possibility.
Then there’s Charlie Morton making his season debut. Starting 7 weeks behind everyone else is difficult enough for great pitchers but Morton is not in that category. His late start is due to September hip surgery. While Morton’s stellar groundball % remains his best asset, hard hit balls on the ground have a better chance of producing a hit than a fly-ball. Morton was a full participant in the spring where he allowed 19 hits in 15 frames over four appearances (three starts). In those 19 spring innings, Morton struck out three batters while walking five and posting a spring ERA of 6.46. He has performed better in three rehab starts in the minors with two of those occurring at Triple-AAA and one at Double AA. Morton is not going to dominate. He has the ability to dance around trouble from time to time but current Marlins have hit him well with 25 hits in 84 combined AB’s for a BA of .298. We also like that Miami hits the road here. They figure to be more relaxed after a long home stand with several tense moments along the way. Miami has gotten off the mattress with consecutive victories while scoring five times yesterday. Proving the adage that there's no better deodorant that winning, the Marlins have erased most of the negative feelings of the past eight losses weeks and seem to have a new energy about them. Two pitchers that are both capable of blowing up and two offenses that are very capable of putting up a crooked number prompts us to step in with a rare total play.
San Diego +126 over L.A. ANGELS (Pinny)
Tyson Ross is just 2-4 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in nine starts this season. Those extremely misleading surface stats provide us with one of the best buy low opportunities of the season so far. When we look under the hood what we see in Ross’s numbers are a 3.00 xERA, a 65% groundball rate, 10.6 K’s/9 and overall some of the best skills in the game. Ross is all set to produce big time results and the fact that he’s a dog against Jered Weaver is ludicrous. Furthermore, the opposing Angels own a .235 BA and a terrible .659 OPS, which is worst in the AL.
Jered Weaver’s stock is back up after three solid performances against Houston, Toronto and Baltimore with the latter two occurring on the road. That’s nice, it really is but it’s still not close to being convincing. Weaver’s first pitch strike rate is just 52% so more walks are inevitable. The reason he’s not walking more people is because batters are so anxious to swing away at his 83 MPH fastball that they’re swinging at pitches outside the zone. In fact, when Weaver is in the strike zone, batters have made contact 88% of the time, which is the highest percentage against any starter in baseball with five or more starts this season. Weaver’s nine walks in 58 innings does not come with the support of his first-pitch strike rate or overall percentage of strikes thrown. His control is not nearly as good as it appears on paper. Weaver has just 28 K’s in 58 innings so he’s not missing bats either. Weaver’s xERA of 4.40 is the most relevant stat in his profile. He’s still one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game and our relentless attack on him is not going to be missed here. This is a bet that must be made because of the extreme value that it comes with.
