| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 44 | 0.00 | +3.68 |
| Season to Date | 70 | 81 | 0.00 | +5.07 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Listed pitchers must go
Twins are 2.32 units to win 2. All others are for 2 units.
MINNESOTA -116 over Toronto
Trevor May is high on our radar of undervalued pitchers. May still does not have sexy surface stats (4.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) but his peripherals have been quite strong with 7.4 K’s/9, 1.6 BB’s/9 and a 41% groundball rate. His 11% swing and miss rate and 63% first pitch strike rate give support to his excellent command. May is getting stronger too. In his last start, he struck out 9 batters in 7 innings and had a groundball rate of 71%. He’s so close to putting it all together and going on a big run. May’s 63% strand rate is very low and once that normalizes, his actual ERA will be corrected. The window to buy low on him will close shut very soon but there is still great profit potential here.
Minnesota is 28-18 and in first place in the AL Central while the Blue Jays are just 22-27 and in last place in the AL East. The market is not giving the Twins enough credit while giving the Blue Jays too much and now we’ll try and take advantage. Toronto has the fewest wins on the road (8) in the American League. Mark Buehrle has two of those eight wins but it’s not because he’s pitched well. Buehrle has had good run support on the road and he needs it because he comes in with a road ERA of 6.30 after five starts. In 30 road innings, Buehrle has been taken yard six times and has allowed 42 hits while striking out a measly 8 batters. Mark Buehrle is batting practice out there. Analyzing him is like re-watching a favorite movie; you know exactly what’s coming, a hittable pitch that is either going to be hit hard at someone or not. Buehrle has never missed fewer bats than he’s missing this year with 27 K’s in 54 frames and a 5% swing and miss rate. Mark Buehlre on the road against a first-place team should be getting a much larger price than the one offered here because his win expectation and skills are so low. If we lose, so be it but we are going with the best of it.
N.Y. METS -1½ +154 over Miami
The Marlins are becoming the laughing joke of MLB. After hiring a manager with no managerial experience and going on to lose 11 of their last 13 games, the Marlins pulled off another WTF move by demoting their third base coach, Brett Butler. Butler was demoted after “confusion over signs” in some recent games. Lenny Harris has been named the new third base coach and Butler will apparently stay on Jennings’ staff as a base-running/outfield coach. It just keeps getting worse for this bumbling franchise. Miami has scored two runs or fewer in eight of their past 10 games. The losing and poor moves by management are taking a toll on the players and now they have to face the great Matt Harvey. Harvey has a BB/K split of 10/60 over 59 innings. At home is BB/K split is 2/27 over 27 innings to go along with a 0.96 WHIP, a 2.33 ERA and an oppBA of .210. The Marlins lack of focus and desire means Harvey has a great chance to dominate and completely shut them down.
Dan Haren has no value whatsoever. He’s somehow managed to post a 4-2 record but it’s all based on good fortune, as his unsustainable 80% strand rate will attest to. Haren’s actual ERA of 3.09 is a complete mirage. His velocity continues to slide (86 MPH) and it has led to fewer swings and misses in 2015. He has 39 K’s in 55 innings but it doesn’t come with support (6% swing and miss rate) so there is much further downside looming in the strikeout department. Haren has surrendered eight jacks in 55 frames. With a groundball/fly-ball split of 31%/46%, plenty more balls will be leaving the yard. Haren has an xERA of 4.49 over his last five starts. In his last start against Baltimore, his line drive rate was 35% and his strand rate 100%. There aren’t many pitchers in the game that are walking a thinner line than Dan Haren and so our attack on this guy will be relentless until the market realizes just how bad he is.
Atlanta +140 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Giants are absolutely killing it these days but we can’t let that get in the way of fading Tim Hudson at this price. Hudson cannot and should not be favored in this range against anyone. Hudson is 2-4 with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He has 26 K’s in 55 frames. He has started nine games but has yet to turn in even one pure quality start. Hudson's skills have actually slipped over the last 31 days with 3.5 K’s/9 and a 5.77 xERA over his last five starts. The Braves offense isn't overwhelming but they are tied for 7th in MLB in runs against RHP. At age 40 and with a ton of miles on that “dead arm”, Hudson carries far more risk than reward.
Mike Foltynewicz has nothing but upside and potential profit, as he can hit three figures with his fastball. Foltynewicz has had five starts since being recalled and has posted a rock solid BB/K split of 12/30 in 30 innings. Over his last two starts, Foltynewicz has a BB/K split of 2/14 over 12.2 innings. Foltynewicz is a former 1st round pick of the Astros that has an electric arm and crazy arm strength. He hits 100 mph in virtually every appearance and holds his top-of-the-scale velocity. His breaking ball--which some call a slider, some a curveball--is an above-average offering that misses bats. Scouts liken him to Angels righty Garrett Richards, for he has top-of-the-rotation stuff and now he’s starting to trust his stuff more, knowing that he’s getting major-leaguers out. You want true value? This is it.
Cleveland +104 over SEATTLE
Not interested in Taijuan Walker as the chalk. Walker has started nine games for the Mariners this year and they have lost seven of them, including the last three by scores of 4-2, 9-4 and 8-2. Walker has surrendered 56 hits in 43 innings (oppBA of .313) and has also walked 23 batters. That equals to a WHIP of 1.84. In each of his last two starts, Walker has walked more batters than he’s struck out. Walker’s groundball/fly-ball rate of 38%/39% doesn’t instill much confidence either. Taijuan Walker gets in several jams each and every time he starts. Rarely is he able to escape them all. We also have to consider how well the Indians are going right now. They took the opener last night after defeating Texas the previous night and snapping the Rangers seven game winning streak. The Tribe has now won eight of their past 10 games while outscoring the opposition 54-31 over that span.
Trevor Bauer has seven pure quality starts in nine tries. Overall, he’s 4-1 with an ERA of 3.02 but on the road, he’s 2-0 with an ERA of 0.44. After giving up five and six runs respectively in consecutive starts against Toronto and Minnesota on May 3 and May 8, Bauer has surrendered just one run in each of his last three starts while going seven full innings or more in all of them. Over his last three starts covering 22.1 frames, Bauer has allowed just 13 hits, walked six and struck out 21. This former top prospect is now transitioning into post-hype stage and he’s not going to remain cheap much longer. Wrong side favored.
