| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +7.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 11 | 3 | 0.00 | +19.53 |
| Season to Date | 11 | 3 | 0.00 | +19.53 |
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All plays are for 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Seattle +101 over OAKLAND
10:05 PM EST. Drew Pomeranz is another former top prospect who is showing signs of becoming an impact pitcher, finally translating his raw stuff into strikeouts. Pomeranz went 5-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 69 innings for the A’s last season after splitting time between the pen and the rotation (10 starts, 10 appearances out of the pen). Star of the action thriller, "Escape from Colorado”, Pomeranz’s xERA gains were mostly skills-supported. There's a "but" here, though. Pomeranz’s poor first pitch strike % means he’s falling behind too many hitters and that’s something that rarely works out well. Chances are strong that he'll give a bunch of those ERA gains back unless he can consistently throw strikes. This past spring, Pomeranz walked eight batters in 17 innings and in his MLB career he has walked 96 batters in 205 innings. Pomeranz has the stuff but not the control and there will be no breakout until he can start getting ahead of hitters more.
Taijuan Walker has also had some control issues at this level (22 BB in 53 innings) but his is a much smaller sample size than his mound opponent. Control was not a problem for Walker this past spring, where in 27 innings, he walked just five batters. In 38 innings last year for the Mariners covering five starts and three relief appearances, Walker went 2-3 with a 2.61 ERA. This premium prospect was derailed by a balky shoulder but he brings 95 mph heat and some of the nastiest stuff you will see anywhere. Walker is healthy now and he’s re-worked his mechanics in an attempt to locate his pitches better. If this past spring is any indication, he’s well on his way to a breakout. Walker possesses swing and miss stuff. He whiffed 26 batters this past spring in 27 innings while surrendering just nine hits and posting an ERA of 0.67. There might be some bumps in the road for this growth stock but he’s been unfazed pitching on the road in his young career, where he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 41 innings. Walker has our attention and we’ll put that to the test in the opener of this series.
San Francisco/SAN DIEGO over 7 +113
10:10 PM EST. We don’t play a lot of totals because there is usually better value on sides but this is one total that appears very beatable with some strong value. Petco Park is no hitter’s paradise but it doesn’t have to be with these two stiffs going. Brandon Morrow won the fifth spot in the starting rotation, according to manager Bud Black. That’s something of a surprise since Morrow's competition Odrisamer Despaigne posted a 2.12 ERA over 17 spring innings and is coming off a 2014 MLB debut in which he posted a 3.36 ERA over 16 starts and 96 innings. In contrast, the injury-plagued Morrow posted a 4.76 ERA in 17 innings this spring and threw a total of 87 innings over 2013-14 with a 5.64 ERA. In those aforementioned 17 spring innings, Morrow allowed 24 hits. Injury struck Morrow again (torn tendon sheath in right hand) last season. There are some who will continue to cling to the memory of 2012's ERA and speculate but a scan of pretty much every important trend (strikeout rate, command, first-pitch strike, swinging strike rate, xERA and disaster starts) shows that it wasn't real back then. Even if Morrow is healthy, he’s pure garbage.
Despite three straight years of 4.00+ ERA entering 2015, Tim Lincecum enters the season in San Francisco's starting rotation. Lincecum is coming off a career-low strikeout total in 2014, as he bounced between the rotation and bullpen. Now six years removed from his Cy Young days, is there any chance we'll see flashes of his former self? No. Signs of Lincecum's decline are everywhere. Falling velocity, falling strikeout rate puts a lid on his overall upside. He still generates a fair amount of swinging strikes, but the high strikeout totals are now a distant memory. He was never stingy giving up walks, and subpar first pitch strike rate suggests it will stay that way. The skills trend sums it up well. Lincecum's profile has turned from elite hurler to “hold your breath and pray” starter. Lincecum's xERA is still in workable shape, but we may not be saying that in a month from now and there are too many indicators trending in the wrong direction to bet on any kind of production surge. An average fastball velocity below 90 has had a damaging effect on Ks, and he's struggled against lefties in recent seasons. This pitching matchup figures to see lots of free passes, lots of hard hit balls and perhaps a long ball or two as well. Six runs or less beats us but all the numbers suggest that staying under that figure is extremely unlikely.
Tampa Bay +115 over MIAMI
7:10 PM EST. You take a recognizable major-league pitcher with pedigree like Dan Haren and put him up against a pitcher that nobody has heard of (Steve Geltz) and what you get is some decent value on that unknown. We should also mention that the Marlins are winless in three games while scoring just three runs and now that first victory becomes even tougher to get. Enter Steve Geltz.
Geltz’s strikeout rate jumps out more than anything else though it is questionable whether that can be sustained in the majors. Geltz was originally signed by the Angels as a non-drafted free agent in 2008 before being traded to Tampa Bay in March 2013. He has spent the last three years in Triple-A and did get a brief look in the big leagues in 2012. He is a short, durable and aggressive reliever who pitches off of his solid-average 90-94 mph fastball. The velocity doesn’t stand out but he throws it with plenty of deception and his arm slot gives it some quality, late movement. Geltz also uses an average curveball but the reports out of spring are that his arsenal is improved greatly. He was surprisingly strong against left-handed hitters in 2014 (.156 oppBA). Geltz had a decent spring. He pitched 10.1 frames and allowed just seven hits while striking out eight and walking none. In his brief major-league career covering 12.2 frames, Geltz struck out 19 batters. Now getting his first opportunity to stick in the starting rotation, we’re definitely willing to roll with this guy taking back a price against Dan Haren.
Haren had an ERA above 4.00 for the third consecutive year, though his 2014 mark was a dramatic improvement from his 4.67 ERA in 2013. Haren's command remains excellent, but there are plenty of red flags. He's consistently been very stingy with the walks, and that's not likely to change much. However, last year's control wasn't backed up by his first pitch strike rate, which dipped to its lowest point since 2007. His velocity continues to slide, and it led to fewer swings and misses in 2014. There's further downside looming in the strikeout rate department. Haren’s cutter is his most frequently used pitch and batters have had a great deal of success against it the past few seasons. In 2014, he got just a 9% swinging strike rate on the pitch. In the previous six years, it had been at 14 percent or above. Haren toyed with the idea of retiring once he was traded to the East Coast but could not refuse the money (11M) and we don’t blame him one bit. If he was going to get paid based on his performance, he would have likely retired. Haren’s swing and miss rate and first pitch strike rate are wavering. Last year’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 39%/20%/41% and his weak hr/f demonstrate that he pays dearly for his mistakes. Declining velocity, advancing age, the desire or on the verge of hanging it up says things only get tougher from here. As the chalk, Dan Haren is pure fade material.
Washington -1½ +113 over PHILADELPHIA
7:05 PM EST. Former 1999 first-rounder and 2014 tri-team hot potato, Jerome Williams continues to hang on to a swingman role for pitching-desperate teams. That pedigree is his only redeeming quality, since skills have been lifeless in all but one of nine MLB seasons. Evaporating swing-and-miss stuff offers no hope for a late-career spike either. Current Nationals have hit .415 off of Williams and you can expect more of the same here.
Gio Gonzalez faces the punchless Phillies offense, which had a terrible .674 OPS versus left handed pitching last season to go along with a .663 OPS at home. In eight career starts at Citizens Bank Park, Gonzalez is 4-2 with a 2.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 9.7K’s/9 in 51 IP. After missing a month with an inflamed shoulder, Gonzalez came back strong as ever in the 2nd half. Though his fastball velocity was down a tick, he used his changeup more often and more effectively down the stretch. After using that change-up 10% of the time in 2013 and 13% in 2014 prior to the 1H injury, 20% of Gonzalez’s pitches over the rest of the 2014 season were change-ups. It was an extremely effective pitch, drawing a whopping 24% swing and miss rate. Seven straight dominant start outings to end the season highlights his potential for a sub-3.00 ERA again. Gonzalez threw 19.1 innings in the spring and struck out 24 batters. Gonzalez is the real deal and provides us with a great opportunity to cash this ticket in perhaps the biggest pitching mismatch of the day.
