34-19 ytd

[PARGASPORT]

I like Denver -5.5 tomorrow.
I just believe that New England is just smoke & mirrors. They were out gained in yards per play in each of their last 5 games. They fumbled the ball 7 times in last two games but recovered all 7 fumbles. Brady is only 27/49 with 1 TD and 1 TO in last two games. They are winning because of their ground game lately. However, Blount had more rushing yards in last two home games than in all 8 road games this season combined. Guess what, he is on the road this week. The Patriots are on the road after almost a month and Denver is not the place where you want to play this season. The Broncos are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season. The Patriots are just a .500 team on the road this season and their ATS record away from home is 2-6. They played 0 true road games in last 10 postseason games.

 

[Daigo23]

AMEN!!! YAY!!! Glad to see you are on them! Might have to double up my bet now!!

 

[Junkalunka]

Thanks for posting!

Good luck to us........:aktion033

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

I also expect blount to be held in check. But not because he is on the road, where he has 78 touches for 350 yards this season on the road... A yard per carry of 4.4 yards. Which is very good. But because Denvers Defense does well against big backs like this. Its not like he is the only hope they have. He really hasnt been a big part of the offense until the last couple weeks. He hasnt touched the ball in a game more than 16 times all regular season... If he was the star, he would of touched it 20+ a few times... I wouldnt be surprised to see belichek only use him 10-15 carries. Sure everyone is focusing on him after last week

 

[TheChathamPontiff]

Anyone who uses the Patriots road record as a reason to take Denver doesn't know what they're doing. New England's 4-4 road mark is beyond deceiving.

 

[CHRONICBUD]

Anyone who uses the Patriots road record as a reason to take Denver doesn't know what they're doing. New England's 4-4 road mark is beyond deceiving.

How about Bradys road outdoor AFC Championship record 2-0? Agreed refs cost them in NY and Car. Mia and Cincy could have gone either way only one loss was by > 5.5.

 

[sendacash]

Anyone who uses the Patriots road record as a reason to take Denver doesn't know what they're doing. New England's 4-4 road mark is beyond deceiving.

Den will have a nice home field advantage here. Manning will be able to operate in near silence and under ideal weather conditions. Meanwhile, while the new Mile High is not quite as loud as the old Mile High it is still plenty loud. This will hinder what Brady can do at the LOS and will be a big boost to the Denver defense.

 

[r.a.]

Anyone who uses the Patriots road record as a reason to take Denver doesn't know what they're doing. New England's 4-4 road mark is beyond deceiving.

Really deceiving ... they didn't beat any teams on the road that made the playoffs (Carolina & Cinci) and lost to powerhouse teams like Miami and the Jets. Of course there's the very lucky wins vs. two more powerhouses - Cleveland and Houston.

 

[sendacash]

The Cleveland win had to be ref assisted imo. That one was RIDICULOUS. bwahahaha

 

[MULEKICK]

Go Broncos!!!

 

[Vituperate]

Line is dropping a bit allowing me to find DEN -4 -125…picking up a key number. Parga is absolutely correct. A less than 100% Brady at altitude instead of sea level is a huge shift. Manning's cadence calls are cause defensive havoc in the league. I also have Blount Under prop which has dropped with smart money from 78.5 to 74.5 or so. Still a good play, imo. If DEN is up early Brady will go to the air. Conversely if DEN gets up Manning will got to Thomas and taking Manning U passing yards may be a good thing.

bol all

 

[thesandman1]

And remember, the Cleveland one point win was at home, not at Cleveland.

 

[PatPatriot]

Brady is 7-0 against Del Rio defenses. 17 tds 0 picks.
They don't need to run.

 

[PatPatriot]

Brady is 7-0 against Del Rio defenses. 17 tds 0 picks.
They don't need to run.

A less than 100% Brady at altitude instead of sea level is a huge shift.

What?
CBS Jim Nantz said he has never seen a more confident Brady going into this game (this morning). (He has done more than 70 Pats games)

 

[SerfCap]

I also expect blount to be held in check. But not because he is on the road, where he has 78 touches for 350 yards this season on the road... A yard per carry of 4.4 yards. Which is very good. But because Denvers Defense does well against big backs like this. Its not like he is the only hope they have. He really hasnt been a big part of the offense until the last couple weeks. He hasnt touched the ball in a game more than 16 times all regular season... If he was the star, he would of touched it 20+ a few times... I wouldnt be surprised to see belichek only use him 10-15 carries. Sure everyone is focusing on him after last week

Blount will be a non-factor. He won't come close to 24 carries again. Only time he will see the love is on the goal line if Pats get down to goal to go inside the 3. Belichick is known for switching it up. Besides, I think he knows all the stuff being posted about their running game. They'll be looking to throw this game and that means Vereen. Ridley will see bulk of the carries.

 

[PARGASPORT]

35-19

 

[Scott602]

You guru... Nice work now get out your crystal ball and give us the winner of the Super Bowl. Lol... We're lucky to have you.

 

[LexingtonGambler]

Great Job!!!!!

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Nice call Parga. Blount lol. 5 carries 6 yards. Good call

 

[PatPatriot]

Nice job Parga.

Nice job all year.
Thank you.