| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.40 |
| Last 30 Days | 50 | 40 | 0.00 | +31.25 |
| Season to Date | 117 | 121 | 0.00 | +25.63 |
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All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y.METS +102 over Oakland
Indeed the A's are a top tier team with a 47-30 record but they've lost two straight and they've cooled off considerably after a torrid start. Infact the A's are just 17-13 over their past 30 games and seven of those wins occurred against the reeling Yanks and Red Sox. Oakland dropped the opener of this series last night by a score of 10-1 and that was Scott Kazmir against Bartolo Colon. Things do not get easier here with Brad Mills against Zack Wheeler. Mills has made one start this season against the weak hitting Red Sox and gave up three runs in four innings. He also walked four batters and posted agroundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 45%/45%/9%. The soft-tossing Mills relies on command and varying speeds on his curve-ball and change-up while spotting an 86 MPH fastball when least expected. Notwithstanding Friday's performance, a career 7.53 ERA (and 10 HR in 57.1 IP) points to his inferior stuff and what happens when his command is off. Mills is clearly not recommended until he shows more consistency and in no way can this stiff ever be favored over Wheeler.
Zack Wheeler has a mediocre 3.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP after 14 starts andhe's the reason we put more emphasis on skills as opposed to surface stats. Wheeler's 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity is the sixth-highest among qualified NL SP. An unlucky 33% hit rate is the reason for his elevated WHIP but a correction to the good is coming in both his ERA and WHIP. Wheeler has 87 K's in 87 innings. His elite swing and miss rate of 12% over his last six starts fully supports his strikeouts. Wheeler also has an elite 58% groundball rate over that same span to go along with an xERA of 2.39. Wheeler is the straight goods and his surface stats are likely the most misleading of any starter in baseball. We now get one of the best “buy-low”opportunities of the year and we're not going to pass it up. Invest.
LosAngeles +120 over KANSAS CITY
JamesShields is a pitcher in peril. He's getting himself into several jamsevery game and in fact has allowed 34 hits over his last 24 innings.Shields' strikeout rate is way down and his oppBA this season of .274is almost 20 points higher than his career oppBA. Shields' has been aworkhorse for years but those 1800 career innings at the age of 32are taking a toll. Constant skills erosion, notably strikeout andgroundball rates have deteriorated to red-flag levels. Regressionanalysis says to expect a partial skills rebound but even a returnall the way to '11-'12 levels--which may have well been hispeak--nets worse stats in a luck-neutral season. James Shields' 8-3record is the direct result of outstanding run support but that can'tlast. His xERA of 4.40 over his last eight starts tells the realstory of an overpriced and overrated pitcher.
Forhis entire 12-year, Dan Haren has consistently postedeye-catching strikeout-to-walk ratios. Last year was noexception, but the 4.67 ERA that went along with it wasdisappointing. He appears back on track this season in terms of ERA.Is it just better luck or is there some other reason for theimprovement? Haren has succeeded thus far with a slightly differentskill set than previous years. A high strand % of 77% and lower hr/f is what separates Haren's fromlast season but it is NOT all luck. Haren is once again displayingexcellent control but his K rate and swing and miss rate are at thelowest level in a decade. He's inducing more ground balls than he dida year ago and now carries the highest groundball % of his career tothis point in the season. The drop in swings and misses and rise ingroundball % raises a key question: Is he intentionally pitching tocontact and trying to induce more ground balls or will the loss ofvelocity and strikeouts come back to bite him? Time will tell. Onething we should count on is an increase in strand % and at least aslight rise in hr/f that will cause Haren's ERA to slightly rise.However, Haren's xERA of 3.67 and his 10 pure quality starts in 15tries suggests that would probably be an acceptable outcome. Insummarizing, Haren throws strikes, he rarely walks a batter, he'sinducing more groundballs than ever and he's a far better optiontaking back a tag than Shields' is spotting one.
Atlanta-1 +100 over HOUSTON
Alex Wood returns to the rotation after 11 straight appearances out of the pen. Wood is not a reliever and is much better suited as a starter and we should see immediate results from this talented second-rounder. Wood brings a 5-6 record with a 3.43 ERA into this game but his xERA of 2.77 as a starter is a better barometer from which to judge him. In five April starts, Wood lost three games by scores of 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1. In 60 innings overall he has an elite BB/K split of 15/63. As a starter, he had a 59% groundball rate and an elite 13% swing and miss rate, Wood can downright dominate and his swing and miss stuff should bode well here against an Astros team that has struck out more than any team in MLB.
Collin McHugh is a rags-to-riches story.Formerly Colorado's waiver fodder and NYM farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh -- owner of a career 8.94 ERA a tthe MLB level -- in December, and inserted him into the rotation inApril following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised thathe's pitched like an ace since then. McHugh has been quite the reclamation project: He boasted 8 k's per nine and 2.7 walks per nine in three Triple-A seasons but has amped it up to elite territory,supported by a robust 12% swing and miss rate. It's perhaps a by product of a revamped repertoire featuring more sliders and curveballs. He was torched in his previous MLB stints with his line-drive rate approaching 30% on both occasions. Hitters aren't seeing such juicy offerings this time around (23% LD%), which has also helped to keep his hit % in check. McHugh's hr/f% has corrected to a more palatable level, but he still serves up too many fly-balls,which could turn out to be an issue at Minute Maid Park (+5% LHB HR).It will be interesting to see how McHugh holds up his second time around the league, as his performance thus far is mostly unprecedented. And his success has coincided with another one of Houston's break-out arms, Dallas Keuchel, to form one of the more improbable 1-2 punches in the league. It's worth noting that in 27 IP in June McHugh's swing and miss rate fell to a more reasonable 9%with more walks than he was issuing previously. We knew he'd comeback down to Earth eventually, but how hard he crashes will determine whether he's more than just a flash in the pan. Now that he's no longer flying under the radar, MLB hitters will and probably have studied him more extensively. McHugh may not be fooling hitters much longer and now is the time to sell high.
