| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +0.48 |
| Last 30 Days | 14 | 14 | 0.00 | +6.78 |
| Season to Date | 14 | 14 | 0.00 | +6.78 |
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All plays are 2 units. Oakland is 2.1 to win 2.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati +128 over ST. LOUIS
1:45 PM EST. Regarding Mike Leake, it's been deviations in search of a mean for this control specialist. Base proficiencies - control, strikeout rate, command and groundball rate have taken root but a low K rate means more situation dependence (and luck), leading to W-L and ERA swings. Be mindful of uneven results, but 2012-2013 xERA consistency sets a clear mid-line expectation. In other words, Leake has a low-risk skill set but one without much upside. He’s not going to dazzle but Leake’s elite groundball rate of 55% and strong control provide a nice floor. He’ll usually keep his team in the game. That said, this one is more about fading Shelby Miller than backing Mike Leake.
Miller saw his share of ups and downs last year in his first full big league season. Specifically, he had a stellar first half that landed him on the NL All-Star team and struggled as the season wore on—to the point he was left off the Cardinals' Division Series roster. That decision certainly didn’t help his confidence. Miller's underlying skills amplify his second-half struggles. He walked almost twice as many batters a game and struck out two fewer per 9 IP. Miller benefited from high strand rates throughout the season but he was actually a tad luckier in the second half. His hr/f almost doubled and he struggled with gopheritis during an ugly month of August. No matter how talented, when a young starter struggles late in his first full season, conventional wisdom says he merely ran out of gas. We’re not sure that was the case with Miller. Miller’s strikeout rate fell off a cliff in five September starts and his control wasn't the same after the All-Star break. In his first start this year against the Pirates, he walked three batters and struck out just two in 5.1 innings. He also allowed five earned runs on six hits. You can bet there are a lot of eyes watching to see how he pitches in April and May. Miller is feeling the pressure of having to perform well or he’ll be riding buses again real soon. And while the results from the two halves of last season vary dramatically, the results since last July indicate that Miller is a pitcher in trouble and that puts him on our fade list for at least this one start.
N.Y. Mets +134 over ATLANTA
Zack Wheeler had a solid rookie season in 2013 on the surface: 3.42 ERA, 1.36 WHIP. While his overall skills did not support that ERA, he was dominant in flashes. In August of last year for example, Wheeler went 3-2 with a 3.13 ERA and struck out 36 batters in 36 innings. And check out his groundball rate by month: 38%, 40%, 44%, 53%. He's another young righty who was victimized entirely by LH bats but showed dominance against righties. Wheeler had some ups-and-downs but he also had a stretch of eight dominant starts in a 10-start span. He’s an out-pitch versus lefties away from being close to elite and if he figures that out this future #1 starter could make strides quickly. The Braves were shutout by Bartolo Colon yesterday and they are now hitting a measly .220 on the year, which adds to Wheeler’s appeal taking back a tag.
We also like that Wheeler has a game under his belt while Earvin Santana does not. Santana is the Jekyll and Hyde of pitchers. He had a brutal first half last year but made a nice rebound in the second half. Still, his control has never been that good and itappears to be trending the wrong way. Santana gave up five earned runs on eight hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in his start for Triple-A Gwinnett last Friday. One has to wonder if the Braves pitching staff were healthy, whether or not they would’ve even signed Santana. Santana backers need to pause before jumping on his 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP from 2013 to recall that he's only a year removed from a 5.16 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. In his first start of the year and coming off a spring in which that aforementioned outing was his only outing of the spring, Santana is a huge risk in this price range and one we want no part of.
Oakland -1 -108 over MINNESOTA
1:10 PM EST. Phil Hughes is a complete mess. Despite striking out seven batters in his Twins debut in five frames against the free-swinging White Sox, Hughes was still tagged for four runs on seven hits for a BAA of .318. Hughes’ groundball rate over his past three years of 31%, 32% and 32% is the worst in the majors of any starter with at least 50 starts over that three-year span. In his first start against Chicago, his groundball rate was 27%. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, it’s no wonder that Hughes has suffered from gopheritis his entire career. The intense spotlight of New York never seemed to agree with Hughes but even a change of scenery cannot mask the fact that 75% of balls in play have a chance to be hit in the gap or out of the park. Hughes remains pure fade material.
Meanwhile, Jesse Chavez is one of the more intriguing pitchers in the game. Chavez went 2-4 with a 3.92 ERA in 57 innings pitches last year for the A’s, all in relief. He entered this season with 5.99 ERA in 156 appearances after pitching for six other teams since 2008 but with his new team came a new approach. Chavez threw very few fastballs and a lot more cutters and it seems to have worked. Chavez’s skills history and low hr/f suggests it was a career year but we’re not buying that at all. Chavez’s new pitch mix led to a high strikeout rate of 11.5 K’s per nine in August and September last season, not to mention a groundball rate of 55%. In his first start this year, Chavez held the hot-hitting Mariners to one earned run in six full and his groundball rate was 63%. Chavez has new found skills and we’re certainly not ready to dismiss it as a fluke.
