Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 31 44 2 -14.76 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 162 200 4 -27.58 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Texas +101 over ANAHEIM
The Angels had a chance to at least make a move and now they only have slight chance of splitting the series providing they win the next two. L.A. has been outscored 15-7 in the first two games and aside from being mentally demoralizing it also heavily taxed the pen. In fact, over their past three games, the Angels pen has faced 82 batters and over the past five games they faced 99 batters and that puts some added pressure on Earvin Santana. Santana has been one of the top three pitchers in baseball over the past five weeks. Over that stretch he’s 5-0 in six games started with an ERA of 1.09. There’s nothing negative to say about him and another great start surely would not be a surprise. However, pitchers are like racehorses. Only the best of the best stay consistently good and the rest peak and dip and Santana has peaked way past expectations for an extended period of time and a poor or average start is forthcoming. With a taxed pen and a with just one win Angels win in their past six games, Santana will pitch figuring he has to be near perfect and those are tough conditions. Meanwhile, the Rangers are flying. They’re beating everyone and they’re beating them badly. It seems like they’re scoring seven, eight or nine runs every night and that allows the starters to relax and pitch their game. C.J. Wilson is 11-5 with an ERA of 3.28. Over the past month he’s 2-2 with an ERA of 3.57. Wilson has been consistent all year with a solid strikeout rate, excellent control and a solid groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 49%/20%/32%. The Angels will be pressing here, they’re sinking fast and they’re beatable. Play: Texas +101 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +104 over BOSTON
Although the TAM offense is mediocre overall (.716 team OPS — 16th in MLB), they are much better on the road (.748 OPS — 4th) and will face the unimpressive skills of John Lackey. Lackey is 6-0 with a 3.92 ERA in his last seven starts, which is a miracle in itself when you consider that the opposition has hit .353 off him since the break. Lackey has a genie following him around and it’s simply impossible to sustain the fortune he’s had much longer. Lackey is pitching better than nobody in the majors. Balls are being roped but they’re being hit right at guys and the only reason he’s winning games is pure luck and some incredible run support. The Red Sox have averaged 9.7 runs per game over his past seven starts but that, too, cannot last. Furthermore, the Sox are in funk. They’ve scored 12 times in its last four games. They had six hits combined in yesterday’s DH. David Ortiz is out. Comparing David Price to John Lackey is like comparing Jennifer Lopez to Joan Rivers. In two starts at Fenway, Price has posted an ERA of 1.98. He’s coming off a 5-1 win over the Yanks and C.C. Sabathia. If the Red Sox win here, so be it but we’re going with the best of it here by a wide margin and if you make one bet today, this should be it. Play: Tampa Bay +104 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +116 over COLORADO
Aaron Cook shouldn’t be favored over Jack McKeon, let alone Ricky Nolasco. Cook has a job only because the Rockies are paying him a ridiculous 10M this season. He has two wins in 12 starts and in 68 innings he’s walked (28) more batters than he’s struck out (24). The Rox have lost his last three games and over that span covering 16 frames, Cook has been tagged for 12 runs and 18 hits while walking seven. He also has a WHIP of 1.68 and a BAA of .312 over his past six starts. If he has a great game by his standards, he’ll throw five innings and allow three runs. If he has a Cook-like game he’ll get knocked out before the fifth and allow five runs or more. Aaron Cook is batting practice, period, and if he’s working next year it won’t be throwing a baseball, as his contract runs out after this year in what has to be considered one of the worst contracts in baseball history that paid him 34M over three years with a mutual option in 2012. There’s a better chance of The Astros winning the World Series this year than there is of Colorado exercising that option on Cook. Ricky Nolasco is 2-1 in his past three with an ERA of 1.66. He’s 5-0 lifetime vs the Rocks with an ERA of 2.27. Over his past three starts he’s walked two batters in 21 frames. Nolasco is serviceable, he has good skills and while he can be wildly inconsistent, against Aaron Cook, taking back a tag, this is a wager that should be made 100% of the time. Play: Florida +116 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 31 44 2 -14.76 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 162 200 4 -27.58 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Texas +101 over ANAHEIM
The Angels had a chance to at least make a move and now they only have slight chance of splitting the series providing they win the next two. L.A. has been outscored 15-7 in the first two games and aside from being mentally demoralizing it also heavily taxed the pen. In fact, over their past three games, the Angels pen has faced 82 batters and over the past five games they faced 99 batters and that puts some added pressure on Earvin Santana. Santana has been one of the top three pitchers in baseball over the past five weeks. Over that stretch he’s 5-0 in six games started with an ERA of 1.09. There’s nothing negative to say about him and another great start surely would not be a surprise. However, pitchers are like racehorses. Only the best of the best stay consistently good and the rest peak and dip and Santana has peaked way past expectations for an extended period of time and a poor or average start is forthcoming. With a taxed pen and a with just one win Angels win in their past six games, Santana will pitch figuring he has to be near perfect and those are tough conditions. Meanwhile, the Rangers are flying. They’re beating everyone and they’re beating them badly. It seems like they’re scoring seven, eight or nine runs every night and that allows the starters to relax and pitch their game. C.J. Wilson is 11-5 with an ERA of 3.28. Over the past month he’s 2-2 with an ERA of 3.57. Wilson has been consistent all year with a solid strikeout rate, excellent control and a solid groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 49%/20%/32%. The Angels will be pressing here, they’re sinking fast and they’re beatable. Play: Texas +101 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +104 over BOSTON
Although the TAM offense is mediocre overall (.716 team OPS — 16th in MLB), they are much better on the road (.748 OPS — 4th) and will face the unimpressive skills of John Lackey. Lackey is 6-0 with a 3.92 ERA in his last seven starts, which is a miracle in itself when you consider that the opposition has hit .353 off him since the break. Lackey has a genie following him around and it’s simply impossible to sustain the fortune he’s had much longer. Lackey is pitching better than nobody in the majors. Balls are being roped but they’re being hit right at guys and the only reason he’s winning games is pure luck and some incredible run support. The Red Sox have averaged 9.7 runs per game over his past seven starts but that, too, cannot last. Furthermore, the Sox are in funk. They’ve scored 12 times in its last four games. They had six hits combined in yesterday’s DH. David Ortiz is out. Comparing David Price to John Lackey is like comparing Jennifer Lopez to Joan Rivers. In two starts at Fenway, Price has posted an ERA of 1.98. He’s coming off a 5-1 win over the Yanks and C.C. Sabathia. If the Red Sox win here, so be it but we’re going with the best of it here by a wide margin and if you make one bet today, this should be it. Play: Tampa Bay +104 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +116 over COLORADO
Aaron Cook shouldn’t be favored over Jack McKeon, let alone Ricky Nolasco. Cook has a job only because the Rockies are paying him a ridiculous 10M this season. He has two wins in 12 starts and in 68 innings he’s walked (28) more batters than he’s struck out (24). The Rox have lost his last three games and over that span covering 16 frames, Cook has been tagged for 12 runs and 18 hits while walking seven. He also has a WHIP of 1.68 and a BAA of .312 over his past six starts. If he has a great game by his standards, he’ll throw five innings and allow three runs. If he has a Cook-like game he’ll get knocked out before the fifth and allow five runs or more. Aaron Cook is batting practice, period, and if he’s working next year it won’t be throwing a baseball, as his contract runs out after this year in what has to be considered one of the worst contracts in baseball history that paid him 34M over three years with a mutual option in 2012. There’s a better chance of The Astros winning the World Series this year than there is of Colorado exercising that option on Cook. Ricky Nolasco is 2-1 in his past three with an ERA of 1.66. He’s 5-0 lifetime vs the Rocks with an ERA of 2.27. Over his past three starts he’s walked two batters in 21 frames. Nolasco is serviceable, he has good skills and while he can be wildly inconsistent, against Aaron Cook, taking back a tag, this is a wager that should be made 100% of the time. Play: Florida +116 (Risking 2 units).