Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.20 Units
Last 30 Days 43 51 0 -2.74 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 99 123 1 -20.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado/CLEVELAND under 8½
Since coming off the DL, Mitch Talbot has started seven games and has faced the L.A. Angels, Red Sox twice, the Yanks, Texas, Toronto and the Tigers. Search all day long and you won’t find a pitcher in the majors that has had a tougher stretch of games than the aforementioned seven. In five of those seven games, Talbot allowed two runs or less so his 5.02 ERA is the result of on e horrible start and one bad start. Now he gets a break when he faces a Rockies offense that has been unproductive on the road, averaging 3.5 RPG with a .675 OPS. If Talbot can keep his walks down he has the ability to be successful and has been very successful in five of seven starts. Cleveland’s offense has been struggling with a .625 June OPS, while barely surpassing 3.0 RPG for the month and things don’t get any easier here. Jhoulys Chacin’s brilliant rookie campaign shows skill set built for long-term success, even in Coors. He’s posted some amazing numbers this year that includes a 60% groundball rate, 81 k’s in 93 IP, a 2.81 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. The Indians are going to be hard pressed to score anything and the Rocks likely aren’t going to be much better. Play: Colorado/Cleveland under 8½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Chicago +128 over CHICAGO
Mark Buehrle’s numbers just don’t align with his poor skills and it’s just not possible for him to keep pitching the way he does and not get whacked once every three games. Here’s a guy that strikes out one batter every two innings. He is not a groundball pitcher and his split between FB’s and GB’s are dead even at 41%. Over the past month his strand rate has been 82% and therein explains the reason for his success. Fact is, Buehrle’s xERA is 4.97. He’s faced a slew of poor offensive teams that include the A’s (twice), Twins, M’s and Dodgers over the last four weeks and Buehrle has gone nine straight games allowing three runs or less. Guys like Justin Verlander do that, guys like Mark Buehrle do not and it’s just a matter of time before a whole string of disaster starts come his way. Matt Garza is the complete opposite in that he has outstanding skills and a whole lot of nothing to show for it. Garza’s ERA is 4.14. Ask 30 managers which pitcher they’d rather have throwing for them tonight and 30 (including Ozzie Guillen) would say Garza. Garza has 78 K’s and 29 walks in 72 innings pitched. He also has a strong GB/FB profile of 49%/28% but since coming off the DL on June 7, his GB profile is even stronger at 56%. The Cubbies came in here last night and won the opener after they had a decent series against the Yankees with the exception of the final three innings on Sunday. The South Side with Buehrle on the hill is a marriage that’s going to get turbulent very soon. Play: Chicago Cubs +128 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +172 over Tampa Bay
Laying 1½-runs at home with NL rules is definitely risky but the price and pitching matchup adds to the appeal. If you prefer, you can lay the 25 cents on the Brewers and that wouldn’t be a bad bet either. First, the Brewers are 20-7 at home against right-handed starters and Jeremy Hellickson’s numbers are in for a huge regression. There is nothing about his skill set that makes his 3.09 ERA believable. His strikeout rate is average (54 in 84 IP) and so his BB/K ratio. His GB/FB profile is 35%/46% and over the last month it’s even worse at 31%/53%. His xERA is 4.80 and when a guy’s xERA is almost two runs higher than his actual ERA a correction is inevitable. His 23% hit rate is the reason that his ERA is so low but that, too, is in for a big correction. Hellickson is ripe to get whacked and the Brew Crew is the perfect setup for that to occur. Meanwhile Zack Greinke has an ERA of 5.23 but his xERA is 2.77. Can you name a pitcher with a larger ERA/xERA differential than Greinke? Greinke has fallen victim to a dramatically inflated hit % and deflated strand rate. When these correct themselves - and they will - Greinke's xERA tells us that the skills are still there. Greinke's control has never been better. While we expect that to rise ever so slightly, control is often the toughest thing to get back following an injury. Evidently not for Greinke. Check out that strikeout rate of 70 k’s in 53 IP. While we should expect some regression here, this is proof positive that Greinke is pitching better than his 5.23 ERA indicates. That command and skills are truly elite, as they blow away Greinke's standards set in his 2009 Cy Young season. That's not easy to do. It's easy to see that Greinke's sole blemish is his ability to keep the ball in the yard, as his hr/f and hr/9 are nearly double that of his 2010 levels. Once those numbers regress, and they will too, you will wish you had wagered on Greinke when the price was low and you had the chance. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +172 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 43 51 0 -2.74 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 99 123 1 -20.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado/CLEVELAND under 8½
Since coming off the DL, Mitch Talbot has started seven games and has faced the L.A. Angels, Red Sox twice, the Yanks, Texas, Toronto and the Tigers. Search all day long and you won’t find a pitcher in the majors that has had a tougher stretch of games than the aforementioned seven. In five of those seven games, Talbot allowed two runs or less so his 5.02 ERA is the result of on e horrible start and one bad start. Now he gets a break when he faces a Rockies offense that has been unproductive on the road, averaging 3.5 RPG with a .675 OPS. If Talbot can keep his walks down he has the ability to be successful and has been very successful in five of seven starts. Cleveland’s offense has been struggling with a .625 June OPS, while barely surpassing 3.0 RPG for the month and things don’t get any easier here. Jhoulys Chacin’s brilliant rookie campaign shows skill set built for long-term success, even in Coors. He’s posted some amazing numbers this year that includes a 60% groundball rate, 81 k’s in 93 IP, a 2.81 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. The Indians are going to be hard pressed to score anything and the Rocks likely aren’t going to be much better. Play: Colorado/Cleveland under 8½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Chicago +128 over CHICAGO
Mark Buehrle’s numbers just don’t align with his poor skills and it’s just not possible for him to keep pitching the way he does and not get whacked once every three games. Here’s a guy that strikes out one batter every two innings. He is not a groundball pitcher and his split between FB’s and GB’s are dead even at 41%. Over the past month his strand rate has been 82% and therein explains the reason for his success. Fact is, Buehrle’s xERA is 4.97. He’s faced a slew of poor offensive teams that include the A’s (twice), Twins, M’s and Dodgers over the last four weeks and Buehrle has gone nine straight games allowing three runs or less. Guys like Justin Verlander do that, guys like Mark Buehrle do not and it’s just a matter of time before a whole string of disaster starts come his way. Matt Garza is the complete opposite in that he has outstanding skills and a whole lot of nothing to show for it. Garza’s ERA is 4.14. Ask 30 managers which pitcher they’d rather have throwing for them tonight and 30 (including Ozzie Guillen) would say Garza. Garza has 78 K’s and 29 walks in 72 innings pitched. He also has a strong GB/FB profile of 49%/28% but since coming off the DL on June 7, his GB profile is even stronger at 56%. The Cubbies came in here last night and won the opener after they had a decent series against the Yankees with the exception of the final three innings on Sunday. The South Side with Buehrle on the hill is a marriage that’s going to get turbulent very soon. Play: Chicago Cubs +128 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +172 over Tampa Bay
Laying 1½-runs at home with NL rules is definitely risky but the price and pitching matchup adds to the appeal. If you prefer, you can lay the 25 cents on the Brewers and that wouldn’t be a bad bet either. First, the Brewers are 20-7 at home against right-handed starters and Jeremy Hellickson’s numbers are in for a huge regression. There is nothing about his skill set that makes his 3.09 ERA believable. His strikeout rate is average (54 in 84 IP) and so his BB/K ratio. His GB/FB profile is 35%/46% and over the last month it’s even worse at 31%/53%. His xERA is 4.80 and when a guy’s xERA is almost two runs higher than his actual ERA a correction is inevitable. His 23% hit rate is the reason that his ERA is so low but that, too, is in for a big correction. Hellickson is ripe to get whacked and the Brew Crew is the perfect setup for that to occur. Meanwhile Zack Greinke has an ERA of 5.23 but his xERA is 2.77. Can you name a pitcher with a larger ERA/xERA differential than Greinke? Greinke has fallen victim to a dramatically inflated hit % and deflated strand rate. When these correct themselves - and they will - Greinke's xERA tells us that the skills are still there. Greinke's control has never been better. While we expect that to rise ever so slightly, control is often the toughest thing to get back following an injury. Evidently not for Greinke. Check out that strikeout rate of 70 k’s in 53 IP. While we should expect some regression here, this is proof positive that Greinke is pitching better than his 5.23 ERA indicates. That command and skills are truly elite, as they blow away Greinke's standards set in his 2009 Cy Young season. That's not easy to do. It's easy to see that Greinke's sole blemish is his ability to keep the ball in the yard, as his hr/f and hr/9 are nearly double that of his 2010 levels. Once those numbers regress, and they will too, you will wish you had wagered on Greinke when the price was low and you had the chance. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +172 (Risking 2 units).