| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 49 | 40 | 0.00 | +28.85 |
| Season to Date | 115 | 120 | 0.00 | +23.23 |
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HOME TEAM IN CAPS
SEATTLE +102 over Boston
The Red Sox are 4-6 over their last 10 games but three of those wins came against the Twins at Fenway, where Boston scored five times in the three games and somehow swept the three games. Their other win over that span occurred on Sunday at Oakland, 7-6, as they managed to salvage one game in the four-game set. Boston has scored two runs or less in seven of 10 and three runs or less in nine of 10. The Red Sox are actually fortunate that they’re not on a run of 10 consecutive losses and now they’re favored in Seattle with Jake Peavy going? While Peavy posted a 2.87 ERA in four April starts, he scuffled in May, with a 6.59 ERA in five starts and June hasn’t been much better. Among his problems is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. He’s also allowed 14 bombs in 93.2 frames. Since Peavy's hit % and strand % are in the normal range, there aren’t many signs that his ERA will improve any time soon. He no longer has the oomph to blow hitters away. While he averaged 94 mph average fastball in his salad days, he’s been consistently at 90 mph for the past four years and is down to 89.5 MPH this year. That’s reflected in his low swinging strike rate of 6% since May 1. The drop in skills tells the story of a pitcher who is sporting the highest home run and walk rates of his career and he is not challenging hitters. In other words, Peavy has staked out a place firmly on the edge of both the strike zone and effectiveness in general and it is hard to put too much faith in him while he’s sitting there.
Erasmo Ramirez is a pooch here because he’s 1-4 with an ERA of 4.62 after 10 starts. That makes Ramirez one of the best “buy-low” targets heading into July. There is so much to like about this guy and we’ll start with his history. Ramirez went 5-3 with a 4.98 ERA in 72 innings for the Mariners last year. However, a spring triceps issue lingered all season, ending a possible breakout season before it could begin. Ramirez showed in five August starts what could've been (2.84 xERA - 1.11 WHIP). In 2012, Ramirez pitched 59 innings after beginning the year in the M’s pen and spending a good portion of the year in the minors. A late call-up saw him and post a 2.44 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in six starts after the September call-up. Ramirez still owns those 2012 skills, only this time around they’re better and he also has more experience. Ramirez has 40 K’s in 49 frames but his elite swing and miss rate of 12% suggests even more K’s per nine are coming. Over his last four appearances, Ramirez has posted an ERA of 2.41 and he has not allowed a single run in his last 15.2 innings. With good health, there's plenty of profit in Ramirez’s young and talented arm the rest of the way. We’ll put that to the test here against one of the most beatable pitcher/team (Boston/Peavy) combos in the league.
Minnesota +165 over L.A. ANGELS
The Angels are tough, especially at home where they have won 23 of 37 games but the value here on the Twins is too great to pass up with Kyle Gibson going against C.J. Wilson. Wilson's “A” consistency may have left him a bit undervalued entering 2014, because despite some nice results since his breakout in 2011, he lacked significant upside due to age (33) and control issues. So far in 2014, he's making a case to capture our attention once again. Wilson has 93 K’s in 100 innings to go along with an elite 54% groundball rate. His 3.34 ERA is right in line with his xERA of 3.31. The lingering issure with Wilson is a lack of control and that’s a big problem when laying lumber like this. Wilson has 40 walks on the year and 15 over his last 31 innings. The result is a pitcher that throws too many pitches per batter and is often forced out of the game early because of a high pitch count. When taking back a tag, we could live with that because his other skills are great and he can beat anyone at any time. However, as a significant favorite, the risk on Wilson is greater than the reward and that applies here.
By contrast, Kyle Gibson has walked five batters over his last five starts covering 33 frames. Gibson’s 56% groundball rate is the best in the majors among starters with 10 or more starts. Gibson is flashing the upside that made him a premium prospect a few years ago. Gibson has thrown a dominant start in four of his last five starts and has not allowed an earned run in any of his last three. Over his last five starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.09 ERA, a ridiculous 66% groundball rate and a very solid 12% swinging strike rate. Gibson has been aided by a fortunate strand rate over the last month and there is some regression coming because few pitchers can maintain the run that Gibson is on right now. However, taking back a tag like the one offered here with Gibson and a Twins’ club that has won four straight overall and that always gives the Angels fits, is once again far too much value to ignore.
Detroit -1 +118 over TEXAS
When these two get together it’s one blowout after another. In fact, over the past 9 meetings, the winning side has won by five runs or more eight times and has covered the 1½-run-line all nine times. This time around the Tigers come in swinging some hot bats while the Rangers are cold with five straight losses. Texas will now face a pitcher they don’t hit well in Drew Smyly. Although it’s a small sample size, current Rangers have just five combined hits in 33 career AB’s (.152) against Smyly. Smyly has surrendered two earned runs or less in three straight starts and he’s pitching with more confidence than he has all season right now. That’s half the battle. Everything in Smyly’s profile, from groundball rate, to strikeouts to his swing and miss rate to walks issued are trending the right way.
Meanwhile Colby Lewis may be the least appealing starter in baseball. A quality start has long been considered a start in which the pitcher goes six innings or more and allows three runs or less. That model is simplistic and takes very few factors into consideration. Our model that says for a quality start, the pitcher must deal the following:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a pure quality start; he gets nothing no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
If a pitcher accomplishes two of the last four criteria and goes at least six innings, he gets a pure quality start otherwise he does not.
We mention this again because Colby Lewis has zero pure quality starts in 12 attempts this year and is the only pitcher in the league with six or more starts without a quality start. Over his last 27 innings, Lewis has walked 16 batters and struck out 16. Overall he has a 1.86 WHIP, a 5.97 ERA, an xERA of 6.46 over his last seven starts and a brutally awful groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 27%/24%/49 over that same seven-game stretch. Lewis has no confidence, he's not throwing strikes and he's not the right guy to propel the Rangers into snapping out of their current funk against a Tigers team that has won four in a row and scored 23 times over that span.
