| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.92 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 36 | 0.00 | +15.26 |
| Season to Date | 47 | 48 | 0.00 | +16.44 |
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All plays are 2 units and listed pitchers must go.
Minnesota +127 over CLEVELAND
Against a rookie pitcher with questionable skills, Cleveland didn’t score a single run off him last night and went the entire 10 innings without scoring. Over their past three games the Indians have scored five runs. They remain one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, ranking 11th in the AL in runs scored, 13th in BA and 11th in HR’s. Josh Tomlin is a surprise choice as Carlos Carrasco's rotation replacement. Carrasco has been shifted to relief after posting a 6.50+ ERA through five starts, though his 3.52 xERA suggests he deserved a better fate. Tomlin had impressive Triple-A numbers, with 28 K’s and 9 BB in 35 innings spanning five starts, though his extensive previous MLB history suggests a soft-tosser who requires pinpoint control to realize success. Tomlin is 29-years-old and has over 340 innings of major league experience. He has a career ERA of 4.92. Tomlin does indeed have excellent control but he’s never been a high strikeout guy and his K rate at this level has always been at the point of irrelevance. Since he pitches to contact and is a soft-tosser (fastball averages 88 mph), he definitely depends on his defense and good fortune. Any negative deviation in hit % or strand % will cause his ERA to balloon. Since he’s a fly ball pitcher, any bad luck with hr/f will do likewise. Tomlin may have some value as a dog in certain situations but starting for a team that is seeing BB’s at the plate, he has no value whatsoever as the chalk.
Samuel Deduno has some of the filthiest stuff in the Majors. That’s nothing new, as he’s always had the kind of stuff that makes hitters look silly but his problem over the years has been the inability to throw strikes consistently. In 201 career innings, Deduno has walked 107 batters, which has led to an inflated 1.55 career WHIP. Against left-handed bats, Deduno has posted these sick numbers over his career: a 1.85 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an elite 64% groundball rate. In fact, Deduno has posted a 60% groundball rate over the past two seasons over 188 innings. His skills drop off significantly against righties but he’s getting better. He’s a tweak away from being a truly dominant pitcher. In 19 innings in relief this year, Deduno has struck out 18 batters while maintaining his elite groundball rate. Facing an Indians team that is pressing at the plate and that rarely sees a pitch they don’t like, is perfect timing for Twins manager Ron Gardenhire to start Deduno. Don’t be surprised to see him throw a gem but even if he does not, all the value is still on the Twins.
Cincinnati +114 over BOSTON
Felix Doubront has started six games this season and he has a quality start/disaster split of 50%/50%. However, at Fenway it has been mostly disastrous, as Doubront is 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA. Over his last two outings, both at home, Doubront has been tagged for three jacks, 11 hits and 11 runs over 8.2 frames against the Rays and Yankees. Doubront spent the off-season simplifying his pitching motion. However, the drop in his strikeout rate and rise in his control is a warning flag that should be watched closely. Doubront’s swinging strike rate is a pedestrian 7%. His WHIP of 1.57 and fly-ball rate of 40% reveals more red flags. Frankly, there’s no promise here. Doubront has been given numerous opportunities to stick in the rotation but he keeps coming up short. As soon as the Red Sox get some healthy bodies back, Doubront is heading back to the pen where he belongs. He’s a high risk - low reward pitcher and one we want no part of as the chalk.
Homer Bailey is being passed up by bettors due to his poor 5.50 ERA and 1.63 WHIP that he’s posted in six starts this year. Before you follow suit, keep in mind that Bailey’s skills have been firmly elite. Bailey is striking out 9 batters per nine innings. His control is still outstanding and he has a solid groundball/fly-ball split of 50%/20%. A crazy 42% hit rate and 29% hr/f have sabotaged his surface stats. Bailey has endured the third-highest hit rate and second-highest hr/f in the game among starters with at least 20 innings pitched. Those are luck-driven categories so ERA regression is inevitable. Bailey came alive with improved command in second half of 2012 and he held it in 2013. He also gained a couple mph on his fastball. His swinging strike rate continues to creep up and is at an elite 12% this year. Best of all, with two uninterrupted seasons, he's beginning to shake the "injury-prone" label. Bailey’s outstanding dominant start/disaster start split over the past two years indicates that he's a blossoming ace and his skills confirm it. Invest because buy-low targets don't get any better than Bailey.
Toronto +107 over PHILADELPHIA
Drew Hutchison was one of the most impressive starters at spring training this past March where he posted a fantastic 19/4 K/BB in 15 innings as well as a 2:1 groundball/fly-ball ratio. Hutchison emerged as a solid prospect at age 20 in 2011 when he posted an outstanding 171/35 K/BB in 149 IP across three levels in the minors. Then he went under the knife for TJ surgery in late 2012 and rehabbed his elbow for most of 2013. Hutchison has carried his outstanding spring into the season with a 3.30 xERA after his first six starts. Behind that mark are some impressive skills that include 38 K’s in 33 innings, an elite 12% swinging strike rate and a WHIP of 0.86 over his last three starts. Hutchison is the real deal and what’s even more impressive is that he’s accomplished all of this with an unlucky strand rate of 71%. Hutchison is on the verge of ace-status and remains a rock solid investment starting for a Blue Jays team that is among the leaders in every offensive category over their last 10 games.
Cole Hamels has the pedigree to attract some attention here as a small favorite but his skills suggest he may never be the same again. At the age of 30 and with just eight years of pitching at this level, Hamels has thrown over 1600 innings, not including the 81 he’s thrown in the post-season. That’s a lot of innings over a short time span and it may have taken a toll. Some off-season shoulder soreness delayed his start to the season. At spring training this season, Hamels complained of fatigue and pain in his pitching shoulder. He said he pushed himself too hard too quickly. He was skipped in his last start because of the flu and makes just his third start of the season here. In his first two starts, Hamels has walked six batters over 11 innings while whiffing eight. His line-drive rate of 38% combined with all those walks suggests he’s changed his mechanics to avoid doing further damage to his shoulder. In his last start versus the weak-hitting Mets, Hamels walked five batters in 4.2 frames while allowing eight hits. That’s 13 base-runners in 4.2 innings. The Phillies are 0-2 in Hamels’ two starts while being outscored 11-3. Hamels comes with more risk than ever. The sample size is small this season but it still shouldn’t be ignored because even if he’s healthy, Hamels is still a step behind everyone else and he may also be on a strict pitch-count here. In this one game, Hutchison’s chances of success are far better than Hamels’ chances and that’s exactly the way we’ll play it.
