| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.50 |
| Last 30 Days | 22 | 28 | 0.00 | -1.09 |
| Season to Date | 22 | 28 | 0.00 | -1.09 |
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Detroit +120 over KANSAS CITY (5 innings)
8:10 PM EST. We are absolutely not putting the Tigers pen up against the Royals pen here so we’ll play this one in the first five frames. Yordano Ventura is another young arm with an electric fastball who started to make gains late in 2015. He turned his top-tier raw stuff into near-elite skills after the All-Star Break with 9.7 K’s/9 and a 53% groundball rate. Ventura’s high rate of strikeouts was supported by an 11.5% swing and miss rate and he’s up to those standards again this year with 12 K’s in 11 frames to go along with a 2.45 ERA after two starts. However, Ventura is not throwing enough strikes. His xERA after two starts is 4.64 and that’s because he’s walked nine batters. He’s always had control problems so there is nothing new or surprising about his results. These pitchers with live arms and control problems are too big a risk to be spotting a tag with and Ventura is not an exception.
Shane Greene is high on our radar this year as one of the most undervalued starters in the game. Greene posted a 9.35 ERA in his final 60 innings of last season before he underwent surgery to repair an aneurysm in his hand that resulted in cold and numbness in the fingers on his throwing hand. Here’s what Greene had to say about it,"My fingers were going freezing cold and turning black and blue," Greene said. It wasn't necessarily that I couldn't feel the ball. It was every time the ball would come off my fingers, it was stinging really bad. It would be like having really cold toes and then stomping your toes. That's the only way I can describe it. It was just a freak thing.""Nobody really had any answers," he said. "I didn't have any pain except for cold fingers, so being a competitor, I just (decided) I'm going to go and compete until they tell me I can't anymore. And it just became an issue where all I could think about are my fingers. So that's when I said enough is enough." Greene said surgery was performed through his armpit and that it didn't take much time to get his range of motion back after the surgery since the issue wasn't muscle-related in any way.
We are going to absolutely give him a pass for last year’s results because of that aforementioned injury. Greene is healthy again. It’s a good thing you are reading this because much of the market is not aware of how good he is. We’re strongly suggesting that Greene’s stuff is legit. When healthy, Greene had a 15%+ swing and miss rate on his slider, curveball, and changeup in 2014. He throws 94 MPH heat with late life and has an elite groundball rate too. Wipe the slate clean on Shane Greene’s 2015 season and start over. The market is sleeping on this guy right now but we’re not. If this ticket doesn’t cash, no big deal because there will be another opportunity to buy Greene at a low cost. However, that window is going to close in a hurry once the market becomes aware.
L.A. Angels +108 over CHICAGO
8:10 PM EST. We’re going to come right back on the Angels today after they went into U.S. Cellular yesterday and whacked the White Sox, 7-0. The South Side has now scored five times in their past four games. They have scored three runs or less in six straight but because they got off to a torrid start, they are overpriced again today against Matt Shoemaker. A shaky 2015 confirmed that Shoemaker’s 2014 was the outlier that included bullpen work, a short trip to the minors, and a Sept. forearm strain. Shoemaker’s control and command regressed as an increase in fly balls led to more HR. With middling velocity and lack of a knockout skill, Shoemakers does not have a lot of upside so we’re not going to sugarcoat his ability. This wager is not about backing Shoemaker but about fading a team that is seeing BB’s and that has a starting pitcher going that is worse than Shoemaker.
Mat Latos has been on five teams since the end of the 2014 season because teams’ can’t dump him fast enough. Latos has a low 52% first-pitch strike rate after two starts this season. He only walked two batters in 12 innings but he’s always had good control so batters are expecting strikes. It doesn’t take hitters at this level long to figure out things so these Angel batters are going to be a lot more patient at the plate than the two previous teams that Latos faced this season. Latos has an ERA of 0.75 after two starts. That’s actually amusing for a guy that has six strikeouts, a 37%/54% groundball/fly-ball split and a 6% swing and miss rate. Nothing in Latos's skillset indicates that any major improvements loom. It also doesn’t help that U.S. Cellular enhances HR by 10%. What we have here is a pitcher with a low ERA of 0.75 (we’re selling high) after two starts that has an xERA of 4.54. Latos’ chances of blowing up here are far greater than his chances of being effective.
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +127 over Oakland
7:05 PM EST. Michael Pineda has a 6.55 ERA after two starts. Many will look at that unsightly ERA and back off but not us because we know better than to put much weight on early ERA’s when a pitcher has such strong skills. Pineda is a legit breakout target. Reference his 11/3 K/BB in 11 innings. Reference his 14% swing and miss rate and 52% groundball rate. A 62% strand rate and 25% hr/f have combined to inflate his ERA. Michael Pineda is an extremely talented starter that we’re itching to get behind. A serious correction to the good is forthcoming and this is the perfect spot for that to occur.
Then there’s Eric Surkamp. Surkamp throws 87 MPH on his best day. In nine innings covering two starts, Surkamp has walked more batters (5) than he’s struck out (3). In his two starts, Surkamp has a 29%/31%/40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. His swing and miss rate is 4% and his first-pitch strike rate is 48%. Overall in his career, covering just 66 frames, Surkamp has a 6.14/5.64 ERA/xERA split. Some guys do well in the minors but don’t have what it takes to make it at the highest level and that’s Eric Surkamp’s story. So, we have a 28-year-old pitcher who looked like a world-beater against Double-A competition but has looked hapless against major league hitters for four years and counting. Some good luck has disguised his lack of skill. That's a pitcher you want to avoid. Both the Giants and White Sox gave up on him and the A’s are next in line.
