| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +4.70 |
| Last 30 Days | 21 | 38 | 0.00 | -23.04 |
| Season to Date | 82 | 109 | 0.00 | -7.28 |
All plays are 2 units and one of these days I'll pick a winner
Tampa Bay -½ +142 over CALGARY
Regulation only. After a run of 10 straight wins at the Saddledome, Calgary has lost its last two there against the Ducks and Kings and scored just one goal. We’re not going to judge the Flames on those two losses because for the most part, Calgary is a difficult out and they play with as much heart and determination as any team in the league. However, the Flames are still flawed in that they spend too much time in their own end blocking shots and chasing around the opposition. The Flames simply have so much more appeal when taking back a price but this one is more about buying Tampa before they get hot.
For the first time all year, the Bolts are healthy. They have endured a plethora of injuries to key personnel in the first half. The Lightning now have every player back and that includes Andrej Palat and Tyler Johnson, who make up two thirds of what could be considered one of the best and most dynamic lines in the NHL. That also takes some pressure off Tampa’s first and third lines. Defensively, Tampa is loaded with high quality players that could crack the starting six on just about any team in the NHL. If the season ended today, the Bolts would miss the playoffs. After being home since December 20 for six straight games, the Lightning will now embark on what the team is considering a crucial four-game trip that begins here. With a game under their belt since the reuniting of the “Kid Line” and with their sights set on a successful trip, the Lightning figure to be ultra-focused, ready and very sharp in an attempt to get this crucial trip off on the right foot. We're buyers.
Washington -½ +145 over BOSTON
Regulation only. The Bruins probably played their worst game of the season against the Canadiens in the Classic but we’re not so sure they’ll respond well. You see, Boston is still missing David Krejci and Brad Marchand. That messes up everything in terms of the Bruins’ lines. The B’s first game without that pair was not a pretty sight and things don’t figure to get much better here. We absolutely love that the Bruins head out for a five-game trip after this one because this team has been answering a lot of questions after that ugly loss and likely can’t wait to get the hell out of town for a few days.
Washington’s coach Barry Trotz has the blueprint for completely negating whatever Claude Julien has planned. It’s almost like a football coach having the opposing teams’ playbook to study. Since Trotz arrived in Washington, the Caps and Bruins have met four times. The results are as follows with Washington winning each game: 4-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 4-1. That’s right, Boston has scored once in four games against Trotz’s Capitals while allowing 13 goals against and Marchand and Krejci weren’t missing then. It’s also worth noting that the Caps have dropped the first two games of their current five-game trip so they figure to be even hungrier than they would have been had they won those first two games or even split. Give a big psychological edge to Washington and give them every other edge too. Man, this is a pretty sweet price spotting a half puck on a team with such a high win expectation.
BUFFALO +118 over Florida
OT included. We’re not going to discuss the Sabres much because this wager is more about fading the overpriced Panthers right now. That said, Buffalo has lost four in a row and they were the better team on the ice in three of those four games. Buffalo continues to improve but the results don’t reveal that. The market responds to results, which provides us opportunities to buy low and this is one such opportunity. Buffalo is a disciplined and structured team that has taken the second fewest minors in the league and they’re on the verge of stringing together a run as long as the goaltending holds up. To be clear, Buffalo is playing some damn good hockey right now and they figure to be jacked up for a chance to snap the Panthers hot streak.
The Panthers stock is higher today than it’s been in over a decade. Florida sits alone atop the Eastern Conference standings after winning their ninth straight game on Sunday over Minnesota. The town of Sunrise and surrounding areas have noticed. If you watched that game on Sunday then you saw a packed house in a frenzy cheering the Panthers on to the final buzzer. That’s something the Panthers haven’t enjoyed for a very long time either. Nine wins in a row, the city is in a frenzy and the Florida Panthers are the best team in the East right now. The only thing missing is singing candlesticks. Truth is, the Panthers win streak is due to the hot goaltending of Roberto Luongo. In their last two wins against Minnesota and New York, Florida allowed 40 shots on net in both games while mustering just 20 and 29 respectively. It’s also worth noting that they had nine PP opportunities over those two games, yet still allowed the opposition to fire away 80 shots on net. The Rangers and Wild held an incredible 93-54 combined Corsi for edge and it’s not just those two games that the Panthers were the inferior team in. Only three teams in the NHL have had more face-offs in their end this season than the Panthers. They rank 28th in Corsi for. What really stands out, however, is Florida’s PDO of 101.3, which ranks fifth in the NHL. Over its nine game winning streak, Florida’s PDO is first in the NHL by a wide margin.
PDO or SPSV% is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage. PDO is usually measured at even strength and is viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is. Florida’s puck luck has been off the charts recently and we can assure you that regression is on the way. We’re selling high and will do so until the value on fading them is no longer present. Florida is a decent team for sure but they are absolutely not a juggernaut that should be winning nine games in a row and this is the perfect letdown spot. The Panthers woke up a city that was sleeping on hockey and the players celebrated that last win in front of their fans like they won a playoff series. They’ll now stop in Buffalo before playing four games on the Canadian West Coast. It’s time for Florida to come back down to Earth and this is the perfect setup for that to happen.
