| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Last 30 Days | 17 | 21 | 0.00 | -1.62 |
| Season to Date | 17 | 21 | 0.00 | -1.62 |
All plays are for 2 units
Buffalo +175 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. The Flyers are very warm with four wins in their past five games with the latter two occurring in OT. Since losing 7-1 to Florida in their second game of the year, Philly’s only loss was to Dallas by a score of 2-1. The Flyers are playing well and they have the puck possession numbers to back it. There will be plenty of opportunities to cash in on the Flyers but that will come later when they’re a pooch. In this price range, Philadelphia is still too risky, even against Buffalo.
With Robin Lehner out with an early injury, the Sabres have problems in goal but that’s not going to prevent us from playing them at this price. You see, Buffalo has outshot its last four opponents and held a significant edge in puck possession in all of them. They Sabres recently held the Lightning to 22 shots on net, the Habs to 26 shots on net and the Maple leafs to 24 shots on net. It may surprise you to learn the Sabres rank third in the NHL in shots allowed per game so they are really playing some pretty good defense. It is risky to wager on teams with poor goaltending but at this price, the risk is worth it.
We also like the “ceremonial” angle. Philadelphia is retiring Daniel Briere’s number tonight after a 17-year career. What that means is the players will be standing around on the ice for 45 minutes to an hour prior to the drop of the puck. There have been dozens and dozens of ceremonies over the years and we often see the host come out flat as a result. The players have other obligations too. They are required to attend a ceremonial dinner. The night becomes more about Daniel Briere than a hockey game. It takes the players out of their routine while the visitor is resting and waiting for the game to start. This is an event that the organization started planning in early August. Frankly, it’s more of a distraction than a benefit and provides us with a great opportunity to fade the home team. Besides all that, Buffalo is actually playing some pretty good hockey, notwithstanding the results.
Edmonton +165 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Minnesota has been solid with a 5-2-1 record but four of its wins have occurred against Colorado, Arizona, Columbus and Anaheim. Combined, Colorado, Anaheim and Columbus are 4-20 and the Coyotes aren’t exactly a powerhouse either. Minnesota might be a very good team but we’re not ready to concede that notion just yet. They had a huge run the second half of last year but have been only slightly above average or average for years. Furthermore, the Wild will play their fourth game in six nights here, Devan Dubnyk might be out (if he’s not, we’re fine with that) and they have Chicago, St. Louis and Nashville up next. We don’t like the scheduling spot for Minnesota and at this early point in the season we absolutely don’t trust them in this price range.
Edmonton’s stock is still low after back-to-back losses and with just three wins in nine games. However, a close look reveals that Edmonton’s losses have come against Washington, Los Angeles, Dallas, Nashville and St. Louis (twice). Outside of a weak performance in Dallas, Edmonton played toe-to-toe with all others. In its 7-4 loss to Washington, backup goaltender Anders Nilsson allowed six goals on 17 shots before being yanked so that score is misleading. The Oilers are coming off a hard fought 3-2 loss to the red-hot Kings on Sunday. With the talent they have and the outstanding goaltending almost every night from Cam Talbot, Edmonton is no longer an easy out. The Oilers tough schedule (ranked third toughest in the league so far) figures to serve them well here against a Minnesota team in a vulnerable spot, that has played the 25th toughest schedule so far. Great value here.
BOSTON -1½ +165 over Arizona
OT included. Rarely will we spot 1½-pucks in the NHL. You may see it twice a year because it has a low win expectation with NHL totals being in the 5 to 5½ range. However, teams win by two or more goals all the time and this is one of those huge situational plays with a big advantage that we don’t want to miss. You could play Boston -½ -115 but we prefer the -1½ with a big take-back for the simple reason that if Boston is up by a goal late in the third period, Arizona will pull the goaltender, thus giving us a good chance for an empty-netter. Teams are pulling their goalie with over two minutes left and usually closer to three minutes so that empty netter is more of a possibility now than years gone by. We’re not likely to need an empty netter anyway.
Arizona is coming off back-to-back wins in Ottawa and Toronto. As mentioned yesterday, the Coyotes have six players from Ontario and a bunch more that played in the Ontario Hockey League for two or three years. It was a hugely emotional two-game set in Ottawa and Toronto and all the Coyotes did was win them both. In the first period of last night’s games, Arizona lost center Martin Hanzal to an injury. Center Antoine Vermette was already out. That’s a big hole up the middle, which was was blatantly noticeable in the third period when the Coyotes could not get out of their own end. Arizona built a 4-1 last night in Toronto but was life and death to hold onto it in the third. The Coyotes were running on fumes in that third period. They’ll now travel again to play their third road game in four days and fourth road game in six days. That’s after two very satisfying victories. Situational betting really doesn’t get much better than this. Arizona will be running on fumes this entire game. The ‘Yotes are very likely to get badly outplayed here. If we don’t cash this ticket, it’ll be because of bad luck or some remarkable goaltending by likely backup Anders Lindback. We doubt that too because Lindback is to goaltending what Ernest Borgnine was to tap-dancing.
