| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +4.52 |
| Last 30 Days | 17 | 10 | 0.00 | +18.41 |
| Season to Date | 17 | 10 | 0.00 | +18.41 |
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All plays are for 2 units.
Listed pitchers must go.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado +122 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Rockies are now 4-0 on the road and 5-2 overall after taking the opener of this series yesterday. Despite scoring just two runs yesterday, the Rockies still belted out 11 hits and now have 49 hits on the road in four games for a combined BA of .320. Meanwhile, the Giants have dropped four in a row after opening the year 3-1 and now they’re a rather lofty favorite against Christian Bergman. Bergman made his major league debut with a spot start last June. Advancing one level per year since signing as a 24th round pick in 2010, he was outstanding in the minors in May of 2014 right before his call-up and put himself on the map for a call-up ahead of other more acclaimed candidates. Bergman is not a flamethrower or dominant pitcher. Rather, he is more or less a finesse righty with pinpoint command of an average pitch mix. The attribute that sets him apart is his ability to locate all four of his offerings. His fastball only sits between 86-92 mph, but he sequences his pitches to the point where his fastball appears quicker than it is. His best pitch is a change-up that features late movement and keeps hitters guessing. Bergman has just 10 career starts at this level and his overall numbers are not pretty. However, he suffered a broken bone on his left hand shortly after his call-up and subsequently missed two months. He now gets a fresh start and we’re willing to go with it because this wager is more about fading Tim Hudson and backing a warm Rockies club than it is about wagering on Bergman.
Hudson went six full innings and didn’t give up a run in his season debut against the Padres at Petco Park. However, he walked five batters and struck out just one so the final stat line was very misleading. Hudson’s xERA in that first start was 5.82. After not giving up a run in his first start and after posting a solid 3.57 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2014, Hudson’s stock is much higher than it should be which makes us instant sellers, as there are warning signs galore. Many of Hudson’s skills declined significantly from the 1H to 2H. He went from 58% groundballs in the first half to 48% in the second. He walked way more batters also. Hudson’s first pitch strike also dropped from 65% in the first half to 56% in the second. His xERA in the second half was almost 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA. As a dog in certain situations, Hudson may have some value but as the chalk in this range, his ceiling is much lower and at his age (40) the risk is growing. The Tim Hudson fade is on.
Washington +110 over BOSTON
Justin Masterson went six innings in his season debut against Philadelphia and allowed just three hits and two runs while whiffing seven batters. Stephen Strasburg gave up nine hits and six runs (3 earned) in 5.1 innings while walking three and striking out five. This is the overreaction line to those combined starts. Masterson’s scattershot skills last year weren't much of a surprise but everything fell apart at once. Theories why: mid-season knee injury; losing 2-3 mph on his pitches; hit% and strand% misfortune; unreal 2nd half hr/f misfortune. Masterson’s ERA spiked by over two runs which eventually led to a September bullpen demotion. Now in a new home with Boston, what are the chances we could see a bounce back? Well, it’s tough to see how he'd return to 2011, 2013 levels. Masterson’s rise in xERA says we can't pin this all on bad luck. His control trend shows he's giving up too many free passes and his first-pitch strike rate of 55% doesn't give much hope for improvement either. The attractive strikeout rate/groundball rate combination still gives Masterson some upside, but the drop in fastball velocity is worrisome. Masterson’s mid-season knee injury in 2014 may have played a factor in the awful 8.07 second half ERA. His elite ground ball rate should aid some recovery, but there are too many holes here to count on a full rebound. Luck correction may get the ERA near 4.00, but with declining velocity and a rising walk rate, Masterson is still too risky to trust as the chalk.
Strasburg burst onto the scene in 2010 with one of the most highly anticipated debuts in the history of this sport. He made 12 starts that year and missed almost all of 2011 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. From 2012 to 2014 Strasburg posted ERA’s of 3.16, 3.00 and 3.14 but his xERA’s in those three years was 2.96, 2.98 and 2.78. Many people believe or have stated that Strasburg is overrated but we’re not in agreement with that and neither are his numbers. Make no mistake about it, Strasburg is firmly entrenched among the elite starters in this league. Strasburg topped the 200-inning mark for the first time in 2014 and tied for the National League lead in strikeouts. There's every reason to believe he'll be among the top starters in the league again in 2015. Strasburg has a well-rounded skill-set that screams, "Rotation anchor". He gets a lot of swings and misses so expect him to continue striking out more than a batter per inning. Prior to 2014, his control sat at a very acceptable level for such a high strikeout pitcher but he took a step forward last year and it was supported by his first-pitch strike rate. After allowing three walks in two of his first four starts, it happened just two more times in 30 starts the rest of the way. He's not an extreme ground baller, but does a pretty nice job of keeping the ball down. He was a little unfortunate with both his home run per fly ball rate and hit rate, which inflated his ERA a bit. Given his groundball tilt, outstanding K-rate and last year's first-pitch strike rate that sent his control into elite territory, there's a strong chance he’ll return full value on any investment made on him throughout the year. Justin Masterson cannot be favored over Stephen Strasburg.
Miami +105 over ATLANTA
The Braves are 6-1 while the Marlins are 1-6, which is precisely the polar opposite of what was projected for these two clubs prior to the season. Because of the hot start/cold start combination, we now find some value in backing the Marlins behind Tom Koehler. Koehler landed a spot in the starting rotation last spring and went on to post a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts. The biggest change in his skills was a boost in strikeout rate from a puny 5.8 K’s/9 in 2013 to a near league average 7.2 in 2014. His swing and miss rate hints at another very modest uptick. Koehler is not going to blow anyone away and he may even be the odd man out when Jose Fernandez returns. However, he has been a reliable starter and has had success against the Braves by allowing just 20 hits in 84 AB’s (.238) against current Braves. However, we’re not counting on Koehler to get us to the cashier’s window because his skills are middling. Instead, we’re relying on the potentially potent offense of the Fish to break out against Trevor Cahill.
First off, current Marlins have hit a combined .361 against Cahill with 44 hits in 122 combined AB’s. This past spring, Cahill worked 10 innings and surrendered 14 hits and walked five batters, which led to a xERA of 5.66. Last year, Cahill went 3-12 with a 5.61 ERA in 111 innings for the Diamondbacks. Cahill’s dreadful season included a bullpen demotion, a minor league stint and a career-high ERA. A change in approach didn't help, as his once-elite groundball % went away and his uptick in strikeouts came at the expense of his control, which first-pitch strike rate suggests may not recover. The Braves acquired Trevor Cahill on April 2nd and one day later made the somewhat surprising decision to release Wandy Rodriguez and keep Eric Stults. This seems like a desperation move by the Braves and one the Diamondbacks were quick to oblige. The setup here is sweet. The Braves are overpriced because of their hot start while the superior Marlins’ bats have been sleeping. Trevor Cahill provides the Marlins with a wake-up call and we’re quick to get behind it. So should you.
STARTER SCOUTING REPORT:
Matt Andriese (RHP - TAM)
With Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly out of commission for the short-term, the Rays have told the 25-year-old Matt Andriese that he has made the team as a starter to begin the season. He was acquired from the Padres, his original organization, in January 2014 and has put together several consistently good seasons. He was a third round selection in 2011 and is in the majors for the first time. Andriese is a durable starter with well above average control and command. In 2014, he allowed more HR than his first three seasons combined, but he generally lives low in the zone and induces a high amount of groundballs. The tall righty maintains his average velocity—89-94 mph—late in games and has proven durable. He throws both his curveball and change-up for strikes, though neither are true put away offerings. Andriese does a nice job of repeating his delivery, though it has some degree of effort and throwing across his body. He owns a career 3.38 ERA, 2.3BB/9, and 7.6 K's/9 in 483 minor league innings.
