| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.44 |
| Last 30 Days | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.64 |
| Season to Date | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.64 |
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HOME TEAM IN CAPS
ALL plays are for 2 units
Atlanta +113 over MIAMI
The Rays may contend in the AL East and if they do it’ll be because of their starting pitching staff that figures to keep them in most games. With Alex Cobb out with forearm tendonitis and with Alex Colome recently released from the hospital after suffering from pneumonia, and already running behind due to a visa problem, Nathan Karns moves up the pecking order. Karns, a big-bodied and aggressive hurler, was obtained from the Nationals organization in February 2014. He steadily rose through the Nats minor league system and reached Washington for three starts in 2013. He wasn’t effective in any of those starts. Karns spent most of last year in the minors and when he did get the opportunity at the big league level, he went 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 IP for the Rays. Karns has some lofty minor-league strikeout totals but cannot maintain it at this level because he cannot throw strikes consistently with his secondary offerings. That has hitters sitting on his 90-95 MPH fastball. Karns is now a 27-year-old career minor-leaguer with just 24 innings at this level. His 6.00 ERA over those 24 innings to go along with 10 walks tells the story of a career minor-leaguer with promise that can’t throw strikes and that is running out of time. We all know how that usually works out.
By contrast, Wei-Yin Chen throws nothing but strikes and he locates them well. The Orioles had their most successful season in years in 2014 with one of the major contributors being Chen, who went 16-6 for the division-winning team. With free agency looming at the end of the year, Chen is poised for a repeat and maybe more. Chen’s skills were nearly identical in both halves of last year and thus highlighted the effect hr/f can have on one’s ERA. His career-high win total propped up his return on investment and his control and groundball gains suggest his new approach (more two-seamers) worked well. A mediocre strikeout rate limits Chen’s upside but he's a stable cog who's getting better. In 18 innings this past spring, Chen walked one batter. In the end, we certainly trust Chen more than Karns and we trust Baltimore’s offense more as well. The Orioles plate discipline will force Karns to throw strikes when he’s inevitably behind in the count, which is a recipe for disaster. Cheap price to pay on the O’s.
Colorado +125 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers made Kyle Kendrick look like Greg Maddux yesterday. Normally we wouldn’t put too much weight on one game but perhaps we should pay a little more attention to fading the Brewers often right now. This is a team that suffered an epic collapse last year and the hangover might still be lingering. Milwaukee shot out to a 20-7 record that nobody saw coming and they held the division lead for 150 days. The Brewers stumbled to a 9-24 finish, becoming only the fifth team since divisional play began in 1969 to lead its division for at least 150 days and fail to make the playoffs. Just like that, a season of great promise turned into one of great disappointment. That is what occurs when you have a free-swinging or an all or nothing lineup. Opponents began exploiting the Brewers' lack of plate discipline and dependence on the home run, and the runs dried up. With a playoff berth on the line, the offense completely disappeared in September, averaging a meager 2.73 runs per game. This is still a free-swinging lineup that the opposition will continue to exploit. You're not going to transform Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez, Jean Segura, Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis into work-the-count hitters by waving a magic wand. These guys have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Furthermore, Ryan Braun is not healthy and may end up missing significant time. Much of the good work achieved during the 150 days in first place was wiped out by the epic meltdown and it might not be over. A 10-0 loss to open the season doesn’t exactly instill confidence or help matters either. The Brewers will now turn to Matt Garza in game two. Garza continues to be viable mid-rotation starter but that may be short-lived, as there are plenty of chinks in the armor. First, he missed time again, as an oblique strain cost him a month. His velocity, strikeout rate and swing and miss rate have dropped three years in row. Garza’s xERA trend hints that his string of eight straight sub-4.00 ERA's may soon come to an end. Garza's K rate, which was once a major strength, continued its descent in 2014. His poor swing and miss rate trend doesn't bode well for a big rebound, either. His overall skills were a far cry from 2011's peak and the xERA trend confirms there's no growth taking place under the hood. On the surface, Garza's 2014 numbers were pretty much in line with previous seasons. However, three-year declines in strikeout rate, xERA and line-drive rate all say that he's skating on thin ice as he enters his age-31 season. Sprinkle in the team he pitches for and the park he pitches half of his games at and Garza becomes instant fade material when favored.
Jordan Lyles is a pitcher that won’t attract much attention right now. However, he continues to possess some hidden upside. Check out his skills against RH bats: 7.8 K’s/9, 2.6 BB/9, 59% groundball rate. He continues to struggle against lefties but has been working on that exclusively. Lyles is still very young, as he turns 24 years old in October. With a tweak against lefties, he could show some nice profits in 2015. Remember, a broken left hand cost him two months and his first-pass BPI scan is unimpressive. But if you squint, there are some rays. Lyles is a heavy groundballer, which keeps his team in the game and adds to his declining disaster start chart. He has youth, pedigree and now some added confidence on his side after a brilliant spring in which he allowed just eight hits in 21 innings and posted an ERA of 0.86. The Rockies offense is among the best in the game with 1 through 6 being as tough as any group in baseball. The Rockies were projected to finish last by just every publication and expert out there. You think they are not aware of that? Of course they are and because of it they bring a huge chip on their shoulder into the season to prove everyone wrong. The bases for those predictions are all centered on a weak starting pitching staff but Jordan Lyles has upside and this offense will continue to go off often. This is perhaps the best value on today’s board and one we surely are not going to miss.
Baltimore -113 over TAMPA BAY
The Rays may contend in the AL Easy and if they do it’ll be because of their starting pitching staff that figures to keep them in most games. With Alex Cobb out with forearm tendonitis and with Alex Colome recently released from the hospital after suffering from pneumonia, and already running behind due to a visa problem, Nathan Karns moves up the pecking order. Karns, a big-bodied and aggressive hurler, was obtained from the Nationals organization in February 2014. He steadily rose through the Nats minor league system and reached Washington for three starts in 2013. He wasn’t effective in any of those starts. Karns spent most of last year in the minors and when he did get the opportunity at the big league level, he went 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 IP for the Rays. Karns has some lofty minor-league strikeout totals but cannot maintain it at this level because he cannot throw strikes consistently with his secondary offerings. That has hitters sitting on his 90-95 MPH fastball. Karns is now a 27-year-old career minor-leaguer with just 24 innings at this level. His 6.00 ERA over those 24 innings to go along with 10 walks, tells the story of a career minor-leaguer with promise that can’t throw strikes and that is running out of time. We all know how that usually works out.
By contrast, Wei-Yin Chen throws nothing but strikes and he locates them well. The Orioles had their most successful season in years in 2014 with one of the major contributors being Chen, who went 16-6 for the division-winning team. With free agency looming at the end of the year, Chen is poised for a repeat and maybe more. Chen’s skills were nearly identical in both halves, and thus highlighted the effect hr/f can have on one’s ERA. His career-high win total propped up his return on investment and his control and groundball gains suggest his new approach (more two-seamers) worked well. A mediocre strikeout rate limits Chen’s upside but he's a stable cog who's getting better. In 18 innings this past spring, Chen walked one batter. In the end, we certainly trust Chen more than Karns and we trust Baltimore’s offense more as well. The Orioles plate discipline will force Karns to throw strikes when he’s inevitably behind in the count, which is a recipe for disaster. Cheap price to pay on the O’s.
