| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.56 |
| Last 30 Days | 16 | 15 | 0.00 | +9.34 |
| Season to Date | 16 | 15 | 0.00 | +9.34 |
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All plays are 2 units. Oakland is 2.06 units to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Oakland -½ -103 over MINNESOTA (1st 5 innings)
1:10 PM EST. Dan Straily may seem like a starter with a limited ceiling given his mediocre 4.25 career ERA. But there are more reasons for optimism if you give him a closer look. The high strikeout rates he posted in the minors are no mirage. He owns an elite 11.1% swinging strike rate and he is dominant against RH bats. Straily whiffed seven batters in 5.1 innings in his first start of the year against the Indians. This all bodes well against the Twins because Minnesota leads the AL in striking out with 82 already. That’s eight more than the Angels, who have struck out the second most times in the AL with 74. The kicker here, however, is that Mike Pelfrey is on the hill for the Twins.
Recovering from Tommy John surgery early in the 2012 season, Mike Pelfrey surprised many by starting 2013 in the Twins’ rotation. After going 5-13 with a bloated ERA, even more were surprised that he’s in the rotation this year. Pelfrey's track record isn't very impressive. He’s never struck out many batters and with league-average control, that’s a lot of base runners. When hit% and strand% are out of whack, things get ugly, as they were in the first half of 2013. Pelfrey improved in the second half but that was mostly due to hit% and strand% correction. His skills showed that it still wasn’t an impressive performance. Despite Target Field being a pitcher’s park (-25% LH HR), Pelfrey struggled at home with a .319/.374/.450 line. The lack of dominance can be seen in his 21%/34% dominant start/disaster start split. Another point of concern is that due to the TJS recovery, he had 133 more IP in 2013 than 2012. Mike Pelfrey doesn't miss bats and too many batted balls miss gloves. For that matter, 2010 wasn't real either; the quest to reclaim that season is what is keeping him employed. Don't be taken in, as Pelfrey might be the biggest stiff in baseball.
N.Y. Mets +127 over ATLANTA
David Hale has made three career starts in the majors and has some impressive numbers. Hale was outstanding in two starts late last year, recording a 1.93 xERA (1.09 ERA) with outstanding command. In his first start this year against the Nationals, Hale went five full and allowed just five hits and zero earned runs. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, Hale has been a very consistent minor league pitcher since 2012. He comes at hitters with a three-pitch arsenal featuring a low-90s fastball, plus slider, and improved change-up. His delivery is clean and easy, allowing him to show good arm strength and easy velocity. However, minor league hitters batted .279 against him. In that first start against Washington, Hale had a line-drive rate of 31%, suggesting balls were hit hard but right at people. He ended that game with a 100% strand rate and a 1.40 WHIP. The kid has upside for sure but he doesn’t strike out many and his Major League career is a tiny sample size right now that reveals some flaws. With a 0.56 ERA in three MLB starts and pitching for the Braves, Hale is overvalued.
Jenrry Mejia had an electric spring several seasons ago, throwing in the mid-90s with tons of movement. Elbow issues have doomed him ever since. He had TJ surgery in May 2011, then got another taste of MLB action in mid-2013 when he posted outstanding skills across the board, which included a 58% groundball rate and nine K’s per 9 innings. In his first start against the Reds, Mejia went six full innings and allowed just four hits and one earned run while striking out eight batters. True to form, Mejia’s groundball rate in in his first start was 57%. Mejia did walk five in that game but his stuff is no nasty that he can overcome walks better than most. He owns a mid-90s, sinking fastball that misses a lot of bats. Indeed this game is a toss-up but with the Mets having the more proven pitcher and at least a 50% chance of winning, the value is on their side.
Arizona +115 over SAN FRANCISCO
Randall Delgado went 5-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 116 IP for the D-Backs a year ago. It was a bag of mixed results for this former top prospect after his June call-up. Delgado traded in Ks for more control but the net gain was minimal, especially with a cruel hr/f. The flashes he's shown, however, are promising and you can completely ignore his first start of the year, as it came in Colorado and that park is as tough as it gets on pitchers. Truth is, Delgado has an elite groundball rate of 61% in 20 of his past 27 major league starts. His strikeout rate is creeping up and although he’s still a risk, Delgado is a far better option taking back a tag than Ryan Vogelsong is spotting one. This one is all about fading Vogelsong.
Vogelsong got lit up in the first half of last season before getting shelved for three months (broken pitching hand). Upon his return, second half results were much better but his skills were actually worse and that’s why we always look under the surface. Vogelsong had been significantly outpitching his skills during his 2011-12 resurgence so a return to relevance hinges on him rediscovering that secret sauce. That’s a longshot at best. Vogelsong's meltdown was both a product of bad luck and skills deterioration. He allowed more line drives—a lot more line drives—than he had the previous two seasons as opponents hit almost .300. Vogelsong's control strayed a bit and his K rate abandoned him, especially after he returned from missing two months with a broken pitching hand. He allowed fewer fly balls (as many turned into line drives) and those fly balls left the park at a higher rate. A higher hit % and lower strand % also helped do him in. You can pin Vogelsong's woes on several factors and not all were his own doing. But the overriding problem was that opponents made contact more frequently and when they did they hit the ball harder. While the Giants exercised an option to bring him back for another year, there is plenty of risk in assuming the 36-year-old will bounce back and be anything near the pitcher he was in 2011-12. Avoid.
