All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +105 over WASHINGTON
Unfortunately for the Nats, this isn’t Doug Davis, Rodrigo Lopez, Randy Wells or any other third rate pitcher that the Cubbies throw out there on most nights. Matt Garza is a top-two pitcher on 95% of the teams in this league. His profile stands out from top to bottom and bad luck has been his only flaw. Garza has an outstanding strikeout rate, a rock-solid groundball bias of 50%, very good command and a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) of 110. His 3.77 ERA is higher than his actual and more impressive xERA of 3.00. The Cubbies lose a lot of games because their pitching is putrid. When Ryan Dempster or Matt Garza start, they have a very good chance of winning because the Cubs offense is pretty decent with a .264 BA, which is fourth in the NL. The Nats offense is worse, much worse in fact. Prior to last night’s win, the Nats previous six runs scored came on a groundout, walk, wild pitch, fielder's choice, error and infield single. Washington's last 10 wins have been by one run or extra innings and that charmed existence cannot last. The Nats are batting .183 over the past week and the combination of that offense and Livan Hernandez pitching is far too risky as the chalk. Hernandez needs no introduction. He has average stuff and relies on his defense to make outstanding plays to keep him in games. No pitcher over the past five years has gotten into more jams than Hernandez and no matter how you break this one down, the Cubs offer up some real good value here. Play: Chicago +105 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +106 over MILWAUKEE
The Reds have the top OPS (.826) against lefties and will face one here in Chris Narverson. Narveson was really good in April and most of May but then his lack of skills caught up to him. Since May 24, Narverson has allowed four runs or more in six of eight starts. His two good starts over that span came against the Pujols-less Cards and the Twins. When he faced the Twins for the second time in his latest start, they got to him for 14 hits, two jacks and seven runs in 4.2 innings. He faced the Reds on May 30 and was knocked out after four innings after giving up five runs. Current Reds are batting .316 off Narverson in a combined 76 AB’s. The Brewers line-up changes completely when Ryan Braun is not in there and it looks like he’ll be sitting this one too, as he nurses a sore calf. Braun is the heart and soul of this team and line-up and his absence is a huge one. Homer Bailey can’t stay healthy but when he pitches he’s damn good. He makes his third start since coming off the DL and was much sharper in his last game than he was in his first game back. He went seven full against the Tribe and allowed just two earned runs. Overall, Bailey has walked just eight batters all year while striking out 34 in 42 IP. His solid 3.64 ERA matches up with his xERA of 3.52 and with Braun out of the line-up and with a whole bunch of other hitters never seeing a pitch they didn’t like, the Reds are in a great position to take the opener in this series. Play: Cincinnati +106 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +106 over SAN FRANCISCO
Since coming off the DL, Barry Zito has allowed two earned runs in 13 innings and the Giants have scored 21 runs in those two games. That’s two abnormalities, as the Giants have trouble scoring 21 runs in a month. Now for the FLUKE ALERT on Zito. Here’s what they’re saying about Zito, "He's commanding his curve." "He's added a slider to keep batters off balance." Yeah, ok. Good thing you’re reading this, because this is the only sentence you should believe ... "This is still Barry Zito." Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the mid 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre crap that says he can't get out of trouble on his own and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA suggests. He’s walked 12 and struck out 10 batters and again, that 3.81 ERA is a complete mirage. Don't get us wrong… Zito will deliver some decent innings because he pitches in a park where that’s inevitable. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. If you are a Zito backer, back off now because if ever there was a FLUKE, Barry Zito is it. Meanwhile, Cory Luebke is one of the brightest young pitchers in the game. In 50 IP he’s struck out 56 and walked 17. Since being inserted into the starter’s role, where he’s much more comfortable, in his two starts covering 11 innings, Luebke has struck out 13, walked two, gave up three hits and zero earned runs. Overall, he’s allowed just 27 hits in 50 IP and his 0.88 WHIP is further proof to just how good this kid is going right now. If you make one wager today, this should be it. Play: San Diego +106 (Risking 3 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +105 over WASHINGTON
Unfortunately for the Nats, this isn’t Doug Davis, Rodrigo Lopez, Randy Wells or any other third rate pitcher that the Cubbies throw out there on most nights. Matt Garza is a top-two pitcher on 95% of the teams in this league. His profile stands out from top to bottom and bad luck has been his only flaw. Garza has an outstanding strikeout rate, a rock-solid groundball bias of 50%, very good command and a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) of 110. His 3.77 ERA is higher than his actual and more impressive xERA of 3.00. The Cubbies lose a lot of games because their pitching is putrid. When Ryan Dempster or Matt Garza start, they have a very good chance of winning because the Cubs offense is pretty decent with a .264 BA, which is fourth in the NL. The Nats offense is worse, much worse in fact. Prior to last night’s win, the Nats previous six runs scored came on a groundout, walk, wild pitch, fielder's choice, error and infield single. Washington's last 10 wins have been by one run or extra innings and that charmed existence cannot last. The Nats are batting .183 over the past week and the combination of that offense and Livan Hernandez pitching is far too risky as the chalk. Hernandez needs no introduction. He has average stuff and relies on his defense to make outstanding plays to keep him in games. No pitcher over the past five years has gotten into more jams than Hernandez and no matter how you break this one down, the Cubs offer up some real good value here. Play: Chicago +105 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +106 over MILWAUKEE
The Reds have the top OPS (.826) against lefties and will face one here in Chris Narverson. Narveson was really good in April and most of May but then his lack of skills caught up to him. Since May 24, Narverson has allowed four runs or more in six of eight starts. His two good starts over that span came against the Pujols-less Cards and the Twins. When he faced the Twins for the second time in his latest start, they got to him for 14 hits, two jacks and seven runs in 4.2 innings. He faced the Reds on May 30 and was knocked out after four innings after giving up five runs. Current Reds are batting .316 off Narverson in a combined 76 AB’s. The Brewers line-up changes completely when Ryan Braun is not in there and it looks like he’ll be sitting this one too, as he nurses a sore calf. Braun is the heart and soul of this team and line-up and his absence is a huge one. Homer Bailey can’t stay healthy but when he pitches he’s damn good. He makes his third start since coming off the DL and was much sharper in his last game than he was in his first game back. He went seven full against the Tribe and allowed just two earned runs. Overall, Bailey has walked just eight batters all year while striking out 34 in 42 IP. His solid 3.64 ERA matches up with his xERA of 3.52 and with Braun out of the line-up and with a whole bunch of other hitters never seeing a pitch they didn’t like, the Reds are in a great position to take the opener in this series. Play: Cincinnati +106 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +106 over SAN FRANCISCO
Since coming off the DL, Barry Zito has allowed two earned runs in 13 innings and the Giants have scored 21 runs in those two games. That’s two abnormalities, as the Giants have trouble scoring 21 runs in a month. Now for the FLUKE ALERT on Zito. Here’s what they’re saying about Zito, "He's commanding his curve." "He's added a slider to keep batters off balance." Yeah, ok. Good thing you’re reading this, because this is the only sentence you should believe ... "This is still Barry Zito." Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the mid 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre crap that says he can't get out of trouble on his own and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA suggests. He’s walked 12 and struck out 10 batters and again, that 3.81 ERA is a complete mirage. Don't get us wrong… Zito will deliver some decent innings because he pitches in a park where that’s inevitable. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. If you are a Zito backer, back off now because if ever there was a FLUKE, Barry Zito is it. Meanwhile, Cory Luebke is one of the brightest young pitchers in the game. In 50 IP he’s struck out 56 and walked 17. Since being inserted into the starter’s role, where he’s much more comfortable, in his two starts covering 11 innings, Luebke has struck out 13, walked two, gave up three hits and zero earned runs. Overall, he’s allowed just 27 hits in 50 IP and his 0.88 WHIP is further proof to just how good this kid is going right now. If you make one wager today, this should be it. Play: San Diego +106 (Risking 3 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
