| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.92 |
| Last 30 Days | 11 | 9 | 0.00 | +3.56 |
| Season to Date | 24 | 20 | 0.00 | +8.88 |
#522 NORTHEASTERN -10 -106 over Drexel
7:00 PM EST. Northeastern went into Drexel just 10 days ago as a -4½-point choice and won by five after the game went into OT. Many folks played the chalk that day and got very lucky to cash their tickets after the OT. Thing is, those that played Northeastern and spotted -4½ points are not going to be anxious to spot more than twice that here with that last game being so fresh in their minds. The Dragons probably should have won that game and now they’re getting double digits just 10 days later? Thing is, college sports is not like the pros. What gets lost is that these are 18 and 19-year-old kids having the time of their lives. Playing on the road and staying in hotels or just traveling with the team is part of the process that is so much fun. Focus is almost always higher when a team plays at home so when Northeastern traveled to Philadelphia to play the Dragons early last week, it was a “road trip” that occurred the day after New Year’s and we rarely put emphasis on scores that time of year. Now it’s the Dragons turn to travel to play their 11th game on the road this year and this is likely their toughest opponent so far. The Dragons have lost to Monmouth (78-65), Rutgers (87-66), Niagara (93-74), Rider (90-82), Penn (75-67) and James Madison (78-67) on the road and they are absolutely going to lose here too with the only question being by how much.
Drexel’s last game was against CAA leader UNC Wilmington, who is 4-0 in the conference. That game was at Drexel University and the Dragons were a 12-point dog at home. They lost 90-72 and now they’ll go on the road to play another 4-0 team in the conference only this time the Dragons are taking back less points here than they were at home. That provides us with this opportunity.
The Huskies defense is the best defense the CAA has to offer. They are always making shots difficult for the opposition and they don’t let up for a second. The Huskies already have a win in UConn (a team that beat Temple last night) and a win over Michigan State. Northeastern has played 11 games on the road so far and just five at home. Despite the difficult schedule, Northwestern is 11-5 overall and it is also 5-0 at home with recent victories of 20 and 36 points over William & Mary and Delaware respectively. Drexel is not a difficult team to whack. This time around, Northeastern will be paying attention, unlike they were 10 days ago back in Philly. Lay the points.
#590 MOREHEAD STATE +4 +102 over Belmont
7:00 PM EST. Belmont is in first place in the Ohio Valley with a 9-4 overall record and a 3-0 record in the conference. The Bruins have won five in a row and eight of their last nine games so their stock is through the roof right now. The Bruins also finished in first place in the conference last season with a 12-4 record but got upset in their conference tournament opener by Austin Peay, who went on to win the entire OVC Tournament. It was a disappointing end to the season and it would appear that the Bruins are even more determined this year. However, we have some concerns. For one, the Bruins have no depth. Their starters are playing a ton of minutes and that could lead to trouble should they get into foul trouble. Furthermore, the Bruins have played an easier schedule than Morehead State. Belmont’s SOS ranks 225th in the country while the Pioneers SOS ranks 125th.
Many expected Morehead State to take a step backwards last year. They had lost four starters and they did need some time to come together, but by OVC play, this was a very good team. Heading into the Ohio Valley conference tournament, the Eagles won six straight games. Their NCAA Tournament dreams were thwarted by Tennessee-Martin in the semifinals of the conference tournament, but Coach Sean Woods took his team to the CBI and made the most of the opportunity. After cruising past Siena, Duquesne and Ohio, Morehead State was in the CBI Finals. They won the first game of the best of three series at home against Nevada, but lost the next two in Reno, including a thrilling 85-82 overtime loss in the decisive game three. Now it is time to build off of that success and while their overall record is just 6-10, the Pioneers are 2-1 in the conference and a win here ties them with Belmont at 3-1.
The Pioneers have had two OT losses this year. That’s a four-game swing so instead of being 6-10, they could just as easily be 8-8 and 3-0 in the conference. Morehead State played both Purdue and Pitt to make up two other losses. After that heartbreaking OT loss to open OVC play, the Pioneers have responded with back-to-back victories. This is a resilient, determined and very focused host that does a lot of things right and while they may have the second best collection of talent in this matchup, they have an intangible edge that cannot be measured in stats. This is a live pup that can win outright.
#570 CAL SANTA BARBARA +7 -105 over Cal Irvine
10:00 PM EST. UC Irvine has started off 2-0 in the Big West and raised its record to .500 overall. They have now won four games in a row. The Anteaters won their Big West opener, 82-67 over Long Beach State and came back to whack Hawaii 84-56 in their latest. Cal Irvine raced out to a 19-point halftime lead against Hawaii and then coasted in the second half. Hawaii has dropped off from last year but it was still an impressive win. The Anteaters are 5-1 ATS against their last six Big West opponents and 17-5 ATS against teams under .500. UC Irvine is 9-9 this year but three of those losses occurred against ranked teams, St. Mary’s, Arizona and then #25 California. Cal Irvine very simply brings the vastly superior resume into this game and thus, the market will be all over this favorite and it’s easy to understand why.
Cal Barbara has been off for eight days. The last time we saw them, they were opening up conference play against UC Davis and got steamrolled 73-47. The Gauchos are 0-1 in the Big West and 2-11 overall. UCSB’s two victories this season have come against Sonoma State and CSU Bakersfield. The Gauchos are also 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. On top of all that, the Gauchos have some issues with players regarding eligibility. No matter how you break this game down, it is damn near impossible to make a case for the dog getting a measly six points but we’re not in the business of breaking down games.
Yesterday we pointed out another game that looked too good to be true when a 13-2 Dayton team went into UMass as a -6½ point choice and lost outright. This one absolutely falls into the “looks too good to be true” category also. There are many strategies we employ and one of them is being able to recognize when the odds makers are hanging a proverbial carrot over our heads. That is certainly the case here and we’re urging you not to take the bait. The Big West is a weak conference, which means spotting road points with any team in this conference is very risky business that will likely not turn out well. The right play here is to take the points and that's precisely how we'll proceed.
Two plays are to win 2 units....Morehead State is +4 +102 so that is a 2 unit bet to win 2.04 units. Most of you will get on Morehead State @ +4.5 -107 but I'm taking +4 +102.
Best of luck.
