| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 12 | 7 | 0.00 | +10.32 |
| Season to Date | 22 | 12 | 0.00 | +19.78 |
ARIZONA -7½ -101 over Oregon
9:00 PM EST. We often play unranked teams at home getting points against ranked opponents but this one is a little different. It is rare to see an unranked team giving away this many points to a ranked opponent but that’s the case here. Oregon comes in as the #23 ranked team in the country. They are also 5-2 in the conference with an overall record of 16-4. The Ducks have two wins over then ranked, Baylor and USC, but neither were true road games, The Ducks are just 1-3 on the road with losses at Boise State, Oregon State and Colorado. They also have a home loss to UNLV. Let’s not forget that the Ducks lost Pac-12 leading scorer Joseph Young who they relied on heavily last year to create shots and knock down three-pointers. The kicker here is that with Young, the Ducks could never compete with Arizona last season, who they lost to three times by a total of 80 points.
We understand that the Wildcats were blown up this offseason. Of their main nine-man rotation from last season, Arizona’s top four players are gone. However, the reason Arizona is still a top team in the Pac-12 is because as it loses valuable players, new ones come in to take their place. Both the freshmen class and the transfer class for ‘Zona are powerfully talented. The freshmen are led by 5-star shooting guard Allonzo Trier. Trier has been called an offensive juggernaut, something the defense-oriented Wildcats could always use more of. Joining him are two, 4-star recruits. As far as transfers go, perhaps no team in the country has had a better crop at its disposal this season. Arizona is seven deep in scorers. They are 16-4 overall (4-3 in the conference) but in reality we could be discussing a 20-0 team right now, as all of the Wildcats losses have been by four points or less. Coach Sean Miller has the blueprint to wreck the Ducks. Arizona looks up, sees Oregon 5-2 in Pac 12 play, themselves at only 4-3, and decides to play ball. The line says so. Pick: Arizona -7½ -101
NOTE: We suspect this line will drop to -7 by game time so we are going to wait on it. We'll update before game time.
#751 Texas State +12½ over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
8:15 PM EST. This market views Texas State as an inferior team to UL-Lafayette, despite nothing drastic separating the two squads. Sure, UL-Lafayette has not lost a game at home at this year and they even enter this game on an incendiary four-game winning streak. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns are just a marginal 9-8 on the year. It is worth mentioning that UL-Lafayette got off to a rugged 5-8 start before marking off their recent allotment of victories. Overall, UL-Lafayette is 5-3 in conference play. Texas State’s 3-4 conference record is not as prolific as the Ragin’ Cajuns but there is not much of a distinct difference between the mark set by the Bobcats and Louisiana-Lafayette.
In overall wins and losses, the two are nearly identical, as Texas State comes in 9-7 and also enter this game on a winning note. When considering that Texas State’s defense ranks 13th nationally compared to the far more mediocre numbers UL-Lafayette posts defending, we are quick to turn away from offensive-oriented squads like UL-Lafayette, as they have proven on a plethora of occasions to be a dicey play. As they say, “The Devil is truly in the details”.
Prior to their most recent win against Arkansas State on Saturday, Texas State took the Sun Belt’s top-team, Arkansas-Little Rock to overtime before falling by a three-ball. Arkansas State sports the nation’s best scoring defense, surrendering just 58.1 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot just 36.9% from the field (3rd Nationally). Texas State put up 74 points and shot 43.4% from the field against the Trojans, displaying improvement and brilliance in their own ranks. Arkansas-Little Rock is an astounding 17-2 on year and lost just one game in their conference against the very same Arkansas State team that Texas State recently took care of by a margin of 10 points.
We saw a similar narrative unfold just yesterday with Virginia Tech, a team that has proven it can play with the best the ACC has to offer and once again they covered at home against a highly touted Louisville team. We are not implying that Texas State will storm into Lafayette and pull off the upset but it would surprise us not if they kept it scary close. The feasibility of a backdoor cover is certainly probable because even a 20-point lead with five minutes left is not safe when you’re laying 13 points. At any angle you wish to attack this market, there is plenty of value in taking the Bobcats on the road against the Ragin’ Cajuns, as there are likely more points spotted than necessary to craft a true 50/50 proposition. We will chalk this up to a possible oversight toward a less scrutinized mid-major market and to the recognizable quality that the host has over the intruder. One thing we will not do is shy away from taking generous points with this better than advertised hound. Pick: Texas State +12½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
#759 Richmond +6 over GEORGE WASHINGTON
9:00 PM EST. You take a 15-4 overall GW team at home (4-2 in the A-10) and put them up against a Richmond outfit that is just 10-8 overall (2-4 in the A-10) and the inclination would be to instantly spot the number. However, we’re always suspicious of lines that look too good and this one fits right into that category, especially when you consider that the Colonials are a perfect 11-0 at home. This one should come with a warning sign that says, “Buyer Beware”. We take nothing away from GW, as they have legitimately won its games and there have been some notable ones. The Colonials have already defeated then #6 Virginia. They also have victories over Tennessee and Seton Hall. However, beneath all that are some disturbing games as well, like the six-point win over Fordham, the three-point win at Saint Louis and the 21-point loss at DePaul. At this point last season, GW had an almost identical 15-4 record. The Colonials would then go on to lose six of its last eight games to put an end to any at-large hopes. They are not a better team this year with some significant losses, most notably Kethan Savage and John Kopriva. Savage opted to transfer while Kopriva stepped into the starting lineup during his senior season and responded by averaging 6.7 points and 3.7 rebounds. He was the tough guy in the paint who did the dirty work. If basketball is all about matchups, we’re convinced that this is not a good one for the Colonials.
As for the Spiders, four starters are back for a team that was on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament last year. The Spiders are coming off back-to-back losses to VCU and Davidson but the former went into OT and the latter was by just seven points. Richmond also has a close, four-point loss to St. Joe’s. This is a team that with some better fortune could have four more wins. Eight of their nine wins have been by nine points or more with seven of those nine being by 15 points or more. The Spiders also have a victory over then #24 California. What we like about the Spiders here is that they’ll always have more/better outside shooters on the floor. Furthermore, Richmond’s, like GW’s, top scorers are forwards. It’ll be hard for the Colonials to find a match-up advantage in this contest and if basketball is all about matchups, then GW could be in trouble here. The Colonials needed two overtimes to get past the Spiders on this floor last season by three points then scored only 48 points in the road re-hook and lost by eight. The power ratings makers generally have GW 1 or 2 points better than Richmond on a neutral floor. You then give the Spiders four more for travelling. We’ll give ‘em a few more for owning more imposing players that the Colonials may not enjoy playing against. Pick: Richmond +5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
