| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Last 30 Days | 29 | 32 | 0.00 | +10.56 |
| Season to Date | 29 | 32 | 0.00 | +10.56 |
All plays are for 2 units
Winnipeg +109 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Jets are undervalued here because they’ll be playing their fourth straight on the road and tail-end of back-to-backs after a victory in Toronto last night. We could not care less about the schedule because this is a highly energized group that is far superior to the Senators. Winnipeg only needs a few minor tweaks to be a true monster. They have the speed, the size, the talent, the coaching and the goaltending to defeat any team in a seven-game series. Winnipeg needs to cut down on penalties and tighten up defensively to take that next step. They have clearly been working on the latter part of that equation, as they have allowed just 26, 26 and 21 shots on net over its past three games. Winnipeg has won three of its last four games and they’re 5-2 on the road. It would have to be an extremely unfavorable situation for us to pass on the Jets taking back a tag in Ottawa. This situation is by no means extreme in any way.
Ottawa has one victory in six home games. They rank 24th in the league in Corsi for percentage, meaning the opposition has the puck a lot more than they do. The Sens also rank 27th in shots allowed per game, which is further proof that they don’t have the puck as often as the opposition. Ottawa was recently outshot by Calgary 38-23. In their 2-1 OT victory over Montreal on Tuesday, they were outshot 37-27. The Sens have put up some weak possession numbers against a strength of schedule that ranks 27th in the NHL. The Sens are overvalued here because they have won three of their last four games including their most recent in Montreal but rarely are the Senators the better team on the ice.
Buffalo +158 over Tampa Bay
OT included. The Lightning have one victory over their last six games, a 4-3 win in Carolina in a game they were outshot in 35-31. That was also the only game over that stretch in which the Bolts scored more than one goal. Tampa has scored seven times in its last six games with four goals occurring in one game. The Lightning will now play their third straight game on the road and their sixth road game in their past eight games overall. Yeah, they may snap out of it because this is an offense that is very likely going to wake up at some point. However, you would have to be a little nuts to pay this price to find out if this is the night they wake up.
We generally don’t like to play on teams that have had an extended rest but the price here on the Sabres is too good to allow that to get in the way of the great value here. The market still doesn’t believe in the Sabres and we hope it remains that way. The Bolts shouldn’t be this price at home against Buffalo let alone on the road. Buffalo went into Tampa on October 17 and lost, 2-1. The Sabres held the Lightning to 22 shots on net while recording 32 of their own. That was the sixth straight game that Buffalo had lost to Tampa Bay, including four last year. Previously, the Sabres just didn’t have the horses to compete with this enemy but now they do and they know it. The point is that the Sabres are sick of losing to the Lightning and for the first time in years they have the personnel to do something about it. This is a resurgent Buffalo team with an impressive young group of skilled forwards and defensemen, not to mention a young, Swedish goaltender that has been brilliant in back-to-back games. Buffalo’s puck possession numbers ranks sixth in the league. The Sabres shots against per game also ranks sixth and their shots for per game rank 4th. None of Tampa’s underlying metrics are superior to Buffalo’s and while that may change over time, we’re 12-14 games into the season and Buffalo just keeps getting better. The Sabres have won three of four. They’re playing well and winning games, which means this group of young guys can’t wait to get back on ice. Buffalo is not going to be the opposition’s whipping boys. This is the chance to prove so. Huge overlay.
Nashville +103 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Wild are winning a lot of games so far but we have our concerns. For one, the Wild have allowed 15 goals against in their past four games and this could become a serious issue for them once again. We all know the story -- Devan Dubnyk bursts onto the scene for the Wild in Buffalo, and instantly turns the season around for a Minnesota team that was going nowhere fast. After a trade that sent him from sunny Arizona to Minnesota, Dubnyk exploded while starting 39 of the final 40 games of the season. His brilliance earned the 29-year-old Calgary native a six-year, $26M contract extension with the Wild. This is a guy that Edmonton traded to Nashville for Matt Hendricks. Nashville traded him to Montreal, where he was sent down immediately and never played a game for the Habs. In the summer of 2014, Dubnyk signed with the Coyotes as an unrestricted free agent and they subsequently traded him to Minnesota. He’s been around since 2009 and has never had a full year of consistency. In his last three games, Dubnyk has posted save percentages of .885, .862 and .880. Minnesota has had great puck luck so far, which has resulted in plenty of goals but we’re seeing some of the same vulnerabilities as we did last year when they couldn’t buy a victory. Taking back a tag with Nashville, we’re willing to put those vulnerabilities to the test here.
Earlier this week, we talked about the Maple Leafs embracing hockey analytics to exploit market inefficiencies in their quest to find puck-possession driving players. Toronto isn't the only team focused on that. Another good example are the Nashville Predators who, like Toronto, were long-time skeptics of the value of hockey analytics -- until attending a draft day seminar held by Eric Tulsky, now of the Carolina Hurricanes. The organization quickly embraced this new perspective, signing Derek Roy, Mike Ribeiro, and Anton Volchenkov last summer for a total combined cap hit of just $3.05 million, while completing a big deal with the Pittsburgh to acquire James Neal.
After years of playing without the puck and relying on superior goaltending, the Predators began last season with one of the coaches most favored by the numbers and a roster full of possession-driving players. This newfound adoption of analytics and “money-puck” players achieved immediate dividends, resulting in a 16-point surge in the standings, and a promising first-round performance where they actually outscored the eventual Stanley Cup champions 21-19. It's therefore no surprise that GM David Poile continued that trend this past summer when he signed Barret Jackman and Cody Hodgson for that same combined annual cap hit of just $3.05 million. The Preds are a top-8 team in puck possession. They have outshot their past six opponents, which includes Los Angeles, Tampa, Pittsburgh and Anaheim twice. Over that span, they outshot the Pens 39-25 and outshot the Ducks in their last game, 42-28. Against the red-hot Kings five days ago, Nashville produced 34 shots on net in a 4-3 OT loss. Although we still have our reservations about Pekka Rinne, this is a live pooch with good numbers across the board both above and below the surface and we’re absolutely willing to roll with them here.
