| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 19 | 23 | 0.00 | +1.18 |
| Season to Date | 19 | 23 | 0.00 | +1.18 |
Winnipeg is 2.14 units to win 2. The other 2 are for 2 units.
EDMONTON +131 over Montreal
OT included. The Canadiens won nine in a row to start the year but not all of them were deserved while many others were against some of the weaker competition in the league. Montreal has played just four of its first 10 games against top-16 teams. They have played the Maple Leafs twice and got outshot by a combined 89-55 in those two games. The Habs have dominated play in just three of their 10 games. We’re not downplaying the Habs hot start. Montreal is a tough out every night with the best goaltender in the game but they’re not invincible and they’re not going to keep winning nine out of every 10 games. Teams that go on prolonged winning streaks often lose back-to-back games after snapping it. During a long winning streak, intensity is high the entire time. We quite often see an exhale of sorts once that streak is snapped. Montreal has taken 31 more minor penalties than their opponents this season, which is the third worst mark in the NHL. It’s an alarming number.
Edmonton is still undervalued. The Oilers are so damn close to being a consistent winner and all it’s going to take is some minor tweaks. The Oilers have played the toughest schedule in the NHL. Six of their 10 games have come against top-10 teams and eight of their 10 games have come against top-16 teams. The Oilers last three games were against Washington, Los Angeles and Minnesota. Combined that trio is 18-7. The Oilers have been tied or leading in the third period in seven of their 10 games so far, which is another indication of a team on the verge of something good. Some minor tweaks in the third period and the Oilers could easily be 7-3 against the toughest schedule in the league. As long as Edmonton keeps being offered prices like this, especially at home, we’ll continue to play them because of the profit potential. The market still sees them as one of the weaker teams in the league but that is incorrect.
WINNIPEG -107 over Chicago
The Jets last four games have come against Minnesota, L.A., Tampa Bay and St. Louis. They were in a position to win them all but only managed to win one of them. In their nine games thus far, Winnipeg has only been dominated twice. The Jets have to clean up some defensive play but they do have the personnel to do that. They are a middle of the pack puck possession team but they have an extremely talented roster with very few holes in it. That said, this one is more about fading the Blackhawks.
The Blackhawks have won six of nine games and are perceived in the market as the same strong team that they’ve been for years. So far nothing could be further from the truth. Chicago’s 6-3 record has been the result of pure luck. Its last three home games were all one-goal victories by scores of 1-0 in OT, 1-0 in OT again and 3-2. The ‘Hawks were out-shot in their last game by Anaheim, 39-24. In their last two road games, Chicago was outscored 7-1 in Philadelphia and Washington. Their opponent shooting percentage is a mere 6½% so once that changes, so too will their good fortune. Furthermore, Chicago’s penalty differential is at -42, which is the worst mark in the NHL and means they have taken 42 more penalties than the opposition. The loss of Duncan Keith to an injury and several other key parts that moved elsewhere has hurt this team dramatically. It has not shown up in the wins and losses yet but it will. All the advanced stats suggest big regression coming over the next 20 games.
Carolina +168 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. What we have here is the 3-6 Hurricanes in Brooklyn to play the 6-3 Islanders. Both records are misleading. Carolina is playing a strong brand of hockey that ranks them second in the league in shots allowed per game. Only the Capitals are better, with the Blue Notes just behind Carolina. Carolina is allowing just 25.4 shots on net per game. In its 3-0 loss in Los Angeles last Friday, Carolina outshot L.A., 40-28. In the ‘Canes 5-2 loss in San Jose the next night, they outshot the Sharks, 34-21. Carolina concludes a tough, seven-game trip here. The ‘Canes are 3-3 on said trip and one has to figure they’ll be focused with a chance to go above .500 in what has to be considered its toughest trip of the year. We targeted the ‘Canes before the season began as having great profit potential and our position on them has not changed. This is a solid team that has been hurt by poor goaltending but Eddie Lack gets the call for this one.
The Islanders truly have an impressive group of forwards with John Tavaras being as dangerous as any player in this league. However, the Isles are far too big a risk at this price because they’re a flawed team with defensive lapses every game. The Islanders are firing away a lot of shots and scoring plenty of goals but they are not going to maintain their almost 12% shooting percentage. Theirs is something severely lacking about that new building they play in also. There is a definite lack of atmosphere from our perspective. (I could be wrong because I’m obviously not there so if anyone wants to chip in on that, I would be interested to hear another take). One of the corners of the rink in the building is void of fans. They have an SUV on display or some other vehicle where there should be people and seats. It’s almost looks and feels like a local arena with a practice going on. Something about it just isn’t right and the Islanders, despite being 4-1-1 at the Barclay Center, have looked very ordinary there. It may not mean much at all but it’s worth monitoring and it is noticeable. Regardless, we like the value on the ‘Canes and we’ll be playing them often at prices like this when offered.
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BTW, if you bet the Sens last night and cashed your ticket, consider it a gift and go quietly into the night without talking to anyone.
