| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | +9.32 |
| Last 30 Days | 8 | 3 | 0.00 | +12.33 |
| Season to Date | 8 | 3 | 0.00 | +12.33 |
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Cleve 2.14 units to win 2 - Toronto 2.2 units to win 2 - KC 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cleveland -107 over HOUSTON
2:10 PM EST. It’s only two games in but when you take a young team like Houston that is batting a mere .127 combined after two games in, you are going to likely see some of them pressing a little. That gives Trevor Bauer a bit of an edge even before he throws one pitch. Bauer went 5-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 153 innings for the Tribe last year. This former top prospect is now transitioning into post-hype stage. His swing and miss stuff says a strikeout rate recovery could be taking hold, but his control/first-pitch strike picture remains muddier. Bauer was actually a very good pitcher in 2014 when he pitched from a full windup with 9.3K’s/9, 3BB/9 and a oppBA of just .212. If he can harness his control against opposite-sided batters (4.6 BB/9 against LH bats compared to a 2.5 BB/9 against RHers), good things will start to happen. Bauer is close. He’s one or two tweaks away from taking a big step forward and fulfilling his prior top-prospect upside. If he’s made those tweaks and his spring performance says that is very possible with just one walk in 21 spring frames, this will be last month to get him cheap. Bauer also has a chance to get great run support here.
Asher Wojciechowsk makes his major league debut in Houston's Minute Maid Park. Probably the only thing you need to know to avoid him in this matchup is last season's minor-league ERA of 5.22 at AAA Oklahoma City. Add in the fact that he's a fly-ball pitcher opening in a ball park that increases RHB homers by 12% and RHB homers by 8%, and you have the recipe for a potential disaster.Signed in the 1st sandwich round (2010) with two plus pitches, Wojciechowsk has seen his stuff back up to an average 90-93 mph fastball and an average slider and changeup. 2014 was mostly lost after a lateral injury, limiting him to 76 IP, though he did return strong yet hittable. Wojciechowki does possess good polish and is a gamer and Houston likes his attitude on the mound, but he’ll need to keep the ball on the ground after giving up 10 HR in only 76 IP last year. Wojciechosk would not be here if Brett Oberholtzer, Brad Peacock, Dan Straily, or even Mark Appel were ready. When one or two of those guys return, Wojciechosk is very likely headed back to riding buses. This game is listed as a pick-em but there is nothing equal about any of it. Indians have a significant edge on the hill, both in talent and experience, in the pen, and at the plate.
Toronto -110 over N.Y. YANKEES
Both teams are 1-1. However, Yanks should be 0-2 because they had one of the luckiest victories you will ever see yesterday. The Yanks were getting mowed down for the second consecutive day when in the eighth inning, Chris Young blooped a double down the right-field line off of reliever Aaron Loup that landed a few feet fair and Jacoby Ellsbury lined a single to center before things got a bit crazy. Loup then plunked Brett Gardner with a 2-1 pitch, loading the bases. In came Brett Cecil.The lefty closer’s second pitch went to the screen, with Young scoring and putting the tying run on third. After striking out Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira was walked intentionally, re-loading the bases. Cecil then hit Brian McCann with a first-pitch changeup forcing in the tying run.Up came Chase Headley, who hit a 2-1 roller back to the mound. The ball kicked off Cecil’s wrist and deflected past shortstop Jose Reyes for what proved to be the winning run. It was a tailor-made double play ball had it not glanced off Cecil. The point is, the Yanks offense is putrid. They are old, slow and once you get by Brett Gardiner, every hitter after him is worse than the next. The Yanks should have scored one run yesterday after scoring once on Monday and should be 0-2. Now they’ll face Daniel Norris, a guy most Yanks have never faced before.
Norris had a breakout season in 2011, as the 2nd-rounder climbed from High-A to MLB in the same season. That ascent makes him more risky than most young starters with just 65 innings pitched above AA. Norris went under the knife in Oct to clean out his elbow, adding to that risk. However, Norris had an outstanding spring and living in Toronto, we were able to follow his progress closely. Norris pitched 24 innings this past spring and struck out 29 batters. Norris works down in the zone with quick arm action and good movement on his pitches. He leads with a fastball that can reach 96 mph. The coupling of good movement and velocity has it well on its way to becoming a plus pitch. Norris also throws a curve and change-up that have good velocity separation from the fastball, and both pitches have the potential to become plus offerings. Norris has ace potential. He has developed his arsenal well beyond what most 22-year-olds have at this early stage in their career and he has the poise and confidence to go out there and dominate this older lineup.
C.C. Sabathia is 34 years old with nearly 2700 career innings. Season-ending knee surgery last July ended his 5.00+ ERA disaster. Blame a crazy hit%, hr/f for part of it but blame age, heavy workload over the years and skills deterioration more. Sabathia’s average fastball velocity (88.8) in 2014 was the lowest of his career and the third straight year his velocity declined. Sabathia is 30 pounds heavier than he was at this time last year so that time off last year didn’t serve him so well. Sabathia wasn’t spending his recovery period at the gym; he was spending it at White Castle. Sabathia worked just 4.2 innings this past spring and surrendered nine hits with three of those leaving the yard. He also gave up six runs in those 4.2 frames. All those years of putting near-300 LBS on those legs cannot be fixed by one surgery. An old, out-of shape Sabathia with weak knees is instant fade material and if you decide to make just one bet today, this should be it.
KANSAS CITY -1½ +160 over Chicago
We’re usually not in favor of spotting 1½-runs with the home team but this one has a very good chance of cashing and we much prefer the +160 take-back as opposed to laying 35 cents. This one is all about fading John Danks. The good news regarding Danks is that he maintained sufficient health last year to approach 200 innings pitched. The bad news: Those innings were worse than mediocre. Danks’ strikeout rate is still not back to where it was before his 2012 shoulder surgery. Until it reappears, when you see Danks as the listed pitcher say "Thanks, but no Danks." With $31.5 million due over the next two years, the South Side are forced to use this guy instead of swallowing the contract. Danks maintains a decent first pitch strike rate so his control isn’t in trouble but a league-average swing and miss rate means his strikeout rate will remain below average. Danks’ xERA of 4.62 last year (4.74 actual ERA) shows there’s not much promise. 2010 was a long time ago. A 24%/22% dominate start/disaster start profile in 2014 sums it up—not many dominant performances, a handful of disasters, and a whole bunch of mediocrity. In 10 spring innings, Danks posted an ERA of 6.97 after allowing eight runs.
Free-agent starter Edinson Volquez signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Royals on Thursday, Dec. 18. Volquez posted career bests of a 3.04 ERA (3.95 xERA) and 1.23 WHIP in 2014. While he made large strides in cutting down on the walks (3.3 BB/9), he also tied a personal worst in hit-by-pitch (14), and his 6.5K’s/9 was his lowest since 2006. However, a spike in his first-pitch strike rate led to his career-best control. Volquez capped his season with a 1.36 ERA over his final 10 starts. Volquez does come with some risk because he can be wild and ineffective from time to time and he signed for big money, which takes away some incentive. Furthermore, current White Sox batter have just 12 hits in 58 career AB’s versus Volquez for a combined BA of .207 so at least he’s had some success there. This one is a bit more of a gamble than the others but it comes with a nice payout that is worth the risk.
