| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.24 |
| Last 30 Days | 27 | 31 | 0.00 | +1.96 |
| Season to Date | 27 | 31 | 0.00 | +1.96 |
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All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Milwaukee +114 over PITTSBURGH
How do we know that this year’s edition of the Brewers is different from Brewers teams of the past decade or so? Well, a game like yesterday was precisely the type of game the Brewers would have lost in years gone by. Milwaukee had a 4-1 lead going to the bottom of the fourth when Pittsburgh rallied for five runs to take a 6-4 lead. Down 7-6 going to the ninth, the Brewers rallied for two runs in the top of the inning and Francisco Rodriguez closed it out with a perfect ninth. Milwaukee is now 13-5 and they’re finding ways to win. They have also defeated the Pirates in all five games this season and there’s no reason they can’t defeat them again. Geritt Cole has pitched beautifully since being called up last season but he’s laboring a bit this year. Cole has already been tagged for three jacks over his three starts this year. Throw out his start against the Cubbies at Wrigley and in his other two starts, he’s walked five batters and struck out just six over 13 innings. Remember, Cole put up mediocre Triple-A numbers before being called up and while he has a high ceiling, Cole is finding the second go around much tougher now that hitters have had time to study him.
A hamstring injury cost Marco Estrada a third of the season last year. When he returned he had a dominant second half, which mirrored his superb second half in 2012. Estrada has now shown plus-plus ability. Estrada has pitched well over his first three starts, missing bats and inducing ground balls at a good clip. Estrada logged 19 IP against the Pirates a year ago and posted excellent strikeout numbers (9 K’s/9) outstanding command and a 3.03 xERA. Pittsburgh has started cold, batting just .227 through its first two weeks and Estrada might be the best Brewer pitcher of them all. Estrada’s skills command our full attention and as a pooch against the struggling Pirates, he and the Crew are a much better option taking back a tag than the Pirates are spotting one.
N.Y. Yankees/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +104
It took a visit from the Yankees to wake up the Rays bats and wake up they did. In the first two games of this series, Tampa has 32 hits and scored 27 runs. Tampa Bay has worn out both the Yankees starters and bullpen and there is no question they will see the pen again today in relief of Vidal Nuno. Let us bring you up to speed on Nuno. He’s appeared in eight games in the majors, three as a starter and he’s about to turn 27. Nuno turned some heads with a solid 2012 season at Double-A (though he was a bit old for the level), followed up by an impressive spring training and start to 2013 at Triple-A. However, he has never really been able to get over the minor league hump. Nuno is a 48th round draft pick in ’09 who has never been on any top prospect lists. He was actually released from the Indians farm system in ’10 before spending some time playing independent ball. That is where the Yankees found him and he has moved quickly through their system. Nuno does not have a typical starter’s frame at 5-11 195, nor does he have a plus pitch in his repertoire. He has to rely on a deceptive delivery along with a nearly side-arm slot to keeps hitters off-balance. Arm angle makes him much tougher on left-handed batters. Nuno throws four pitches and can locate all of them well: fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. Fastball tops out at 91 mph with pretty good location. He will use his fastball to work ahead in the count and try to get hitters to chase his secondary stuff out of the zone but he’s not fooling anyone at this level. His career numbers at this level are awful, albeit a small sample size, but expected him to thrive today against a scorching hot club would be unreasonable.
Cesar Ramos draws the Yankees for his second start. He likely won’t be on much of a pitch-count leash having been in the Rays bullpen at the start of the season. He’s coming off a shaky outing and the Yankees have fared quite well against left-handed pitching (.797 OPS). New York’s offense has also gotten cranked up over the last week with an .824 OPS over the past seven games. Ramos has been primarily a lefty specialist that was overexposed vs. RH bats. With marginal command against righties and a 91-mph fastball that they torched, he just doesn't have the goods to sustain a sub-4.00 ERA in an expanded role. Ramos has appeared in 148 major-league games over his career and 144 of those were in relief. At the age of 30 and with brutally awful numbers as a starter, we highly doubt he’s going to catch lightning in a bottle here. Both these pitchers have a great chance of blowing up, prompting us to step in.
Seattle +100 over MIAMI
Kevin Slowey has appeared in four games this season, all in relief. He now makes his first start of the season after allowing 15 hits and seven runs in 12 innings in relief. The Marlins are 0-4 in the four games that Slowey has appeared in. He missed all of 2012 after the Twins gave up on him after the 2011 season when they traded him to Colorado for a player to be named later. He never pitched for the Rockies and six days later he was traded to Cleveland for Zach Putnam. He subsequently spent the entire season on the minor-league disabled list. Slowey was out-righted to Columbus and removed from the Indians' 40-man roster on October 31, 2012. He subsequently elected to become a free agent and signed with the Marlins as a non-roster invitee. Not being able to crack the Twins rotation is equivalent to being the 11th man on the 76ers bench. In 92 innings for the Marlins last season, Slowey allowed 106 hits in 92 innings. He has a career ERA of 4.58 and a career BAA of .290. He's a fly-ball pitcher who struggles to keep the ball in the park. Slowey's K rate was in steep decline when he was banished to the minor leagues in 2011. His excellent command rate is owed entirely to the fact he rarely walks batters. Slowey defines a control artist who relies on fly ball outs to get out of innings. The problem is those fly balls are too often line drive rockets into the outfield or balls that leave the park entirely. He'll certainly be helped by getting to face opposing pitchers a couple of times a game but Slowey is a complete stiff that isn’t a stranger to most of the Mariners hitters from his days as a Twinkie. Dude is unplayable.
Brandon Maurer might not seem like an attractive starting pitcher target in 2014. After all, he had an ugly 6.30 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with Seattle in 2013 and he has struggled with back issues early in his career. But there are also reasons to view him as a growth stock. His skills in the second half with the M’s last year were excellent with 8.4 K’s per nine, 2.2 BB/9 per nine and a 47% groundball rate. Maurer already has one of the better curveballs in the AL. He had a 39% K% and 11% swinging strike rate with that pitch. His problem was his 93-mph four-seam fastball, a pitch that batters hit hard, especially lefties (.607 SLG). With more effective heat, Maurer could take a big leap forward and deliver a ton of profit in 2014. We’ll out that to the test here.
