| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.30 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 45 | 0.00 | +4.88 |
| Season to Date | 185 | 263 | 0.00 | -40.20 |
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All plays are for 2 units.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Toronto +143 over CLEVELAND
1:10 PM EST. On the surface, Cory Kluber took a big step back last year from his 2014 breakout. However, he was the same pitcher both years. After hit, strand, and hr/f gods were firmly on his side in 2014, regression in those marks and a few more fly-balls sent his ERA above 3.00. This year, Kluber is the same ace he’s been for three years running. He has an elite BB/K split of 38/163 in 163 innings. His 3.15 ERA has the support of his 3.36 xERA. He throws strikes, he wins games and he comes in with an elite 14% swing and miss rate. Kluber has a lethal enough arsenal to not want to fade him but he’s also had some blowups. Kluber’s 41%/20%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his past 10 starts reveals his risk at Progressive Field. Let’s not forget that Kluber is 13-8 so it’s not like he always wins and never loses.
The real wager here, however, surrounds Marcus Stroman, who has quietly surpassed Aaron Sanchez as Toronto’s ace. For the first 3½ months of the season, Stroman was not the dominant starter he was expected to be. However, you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant starter in the majors over the past five weeks or so. Over that stretch, Stroman’s 2.77 xERA is the best in the majors. Over his last 25 innings, Stroman has 32 K’s with just three walks issued. On top of those strikeouts is an elite 60% groundball rate. Stroman got off to a slow start but his elite profile has kicked into gear. His top-tier control/groundball%/strikeout rate combo make him one of the most difficult pitchers in baseball to score upon and now he’s priced like he’s R.A. Dickey. Win or lose, you will not make a better value bet today than the Blue Jays taking back a tag like this with Stroman on the mound.
Miami +126 over PITTSBURGH
1:10 PM EST. The Marlins go for the sweep here and there is nothing suggesting they won’t get it. Pittsburgh has been a bankroll killer as the chalk all season long and have zero appeal here as the favorite with Ryan Vogelsong going. On August 5, Vogelsong made his first start since a frightening eye injury after being hit in the face by a pitch two months prior. Vogelsong gave up just one run in six innings against the Braves and followed that up with another strong start against the Padres. Then the wheels inevitably flew off in his last start against the Giants. We say inevitably because this is a weak set of skills. Vogelsong drew one (!) swinging strike in his last start in 94 pitches. His swinging strike rate this season is one of MLB’s worst at 5%. He has an overall BB/K split of 15/28 in 39.1 innings. Pay no attention to Vogelsong’s overall surface ERA of 3.20 or to his 2.55 ERA since returning from injury. Vogelsong’s xERA of 5.72 assures us that regression is coming. He’s been greatly aided by an unsustainable 80% strand rate but sooner or later all those hard hit balls will land elsewhere besides right at someone. Vogelsong lived on the margins when he was “good” and now at 38, he’s unlikely to return any profits.
The Pirates are favored here because of Jose Urena’s 6.80 ERA. This game is another example of how surface stats influence the line and how misleading they can be. That’s not to say Urena doesn’t bring risk because he does. He’s a starter turned reliever turned starter and has worked in just 20 games this season with only four of those coming as a starter. He has just 42 innings under his belt this season. However, Urena is a starter at heart. He’s just 23-years-old. He’s spent a lot of time in the minors this season already, all as a starter, so this role is his most comfortable. In the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this season, Urena allowed a mere 41 hits in 48.1 innings and pitched to an ERA/xERA split of 3.17/3.44. xERA’s do not take park factors into consideration so Urena’s numbers are therefore even more impressive. Urena has filthy stuff but the risk comes in his inability or lack thereof to throw strikes consistently. In 750 career minor league innings, Urena has allowed just 49 jacks so he’s able to keep the ball in the park. He’s been pitching in the minors since he was 16 years-old. So, control is the key here. When it tanks (3.6 BB’s/9 in MLB), the MLB results fit but elements of intrigue are a 95+ mph heater and his good slider and changeup both show promise. The seeds of something here and now he needs time to sew the raw materials together at this level. If he’s throwing strikes, he has a great chance to succeed. If he’s not and gets blown up, the Marlins can still win this game.
Arizona +109 over SAN DIEGO
4:10 PM EST. We have backed Luis Perdomo many times this season but he and the Padres have been a pooch every single time we stepped in. As the favorite, we’ll now have to switch gears and attack Perdomo. Perdomo remains a very intriguing speculation. His combination of being able to miss bats (10.8% swing and miss rate) and generating groundballs (62%) gives him a unique profile, especially when considering his mid-90s fastball. However, we are absolutely seeing signs of fatigue now. Perdomo’s swing and miss rate since July 22, covering five starts is down to 8%. His walks are up from 3 BB’s/9 before July 22 to 3.9 BB’s/9 afterward. Over his last 30 innings, Perdomo has walked 14 batters and hit two. He now has 40 walks in 100 frames overall and an unsightly 1.84 WHIP. Pitching with all that traffic on the bases all season long is taxing. As a Rule 5 selection, the Padres have been forced to roster him all season, which is not a problem for a team going nowhere. Thing is, he was supposed to be in the minors all year. Perdomo’s highest level of competition before this season was a mere 26 innings at A-ball. He’s raw as can be and he’s paying the price for it now. Fatigued and getting hit hard over his past eight games, Perdomo is about as unappealing a favorite as there is on today’s board.
If you’ve never watched Braden Shipley pitch before and decide to watch him today, you are very likely in for a treat. Shipley has made just five starts this season so we’re talking about a small sample size. He was also whacked in his last start against the light-hitting Mets so there’s a great chance he’ll be overlooked in the market. Shipley was a first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has been effective with three average to above average offerings. This is his first season above Double-A and he’s done a much better job of commanding the plate with his sinking 91-96 mph fastball. On the one hand, his strikeout rate has been disappointing. On the other hand, he works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. He has some work to do with pitch sequencing, but he’s making strides in all facets of pitching. In three of his five starts, Shipley made the Dodgers, Mets (the first time he faced them), and Brewers look silly in a slew of AB’s. The Padres have never seen him before and could be in for a similar fate.
