| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +4.42 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 38 | 0.00 | +9.26 |
| Season to Date | 36 | 38 | 0.00 | +11.26 |
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CHI & COL are for 2 units each. Pitt is to win 2 units.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS and listed pitchers must go.
Chicago +156 over MILWAUKEE
Travis Wood’s falling ERA and nice dominant/disaster start scores throughout his career are all signs of a young pitcher figuring it out. Wood just seems to get better with each passing month over his entire career. He was masterful at home against the Diamondbacks last week, striking out nine in a no-walk, seven-inning performance, while picking up the win. Last year's 4.45 xERA made experts believe his 3.11 ERA would be unsustainable this season, but Wood has thus far silenced critics with a 10.1 K’s per nine, outstanding command and a swinging strike rate of 11%. Wood has now struck out 28 batters in his 25 innings so far while walking just four. It may also surprise you to learn that the Brewers are batting a measly .173 at home against lefties and Wood is a southpaw.
We were backing Marco Estrada as soon as the season started, suggesting he was an under the radar pitcher and he rewarded us with a couple of nice wins as a pup. Well, the value on Estrada is now gone and that makes us sellers at this price. Estrada has put up some nice numbers in four starts (24 IP – 6BB -19K - 2.66 ERA - 1.10 WHIP) but he’s also been the beneficiary of unsustainable hit and strand rates. In fact, Estrada’s hit rate/strand rate combination of 26%/83% is one of the top five most fortunate profiles in baseball over the first four starts. Estrada’s xERA is 3.98, which almost 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA. This high tag on Estrada with regression in his ERA inevitable makes the Cubbies a very worthy pooch.
Pittsburgh -103 over ST. LOUIS
4:05 PM. Tyler Lyons jumps into the rotation for the injured Joe Kelly and makes his second start since doing so. Lyons had a pure quality start in his first outing of the year last week with seven K’s in six innings against the free-swinging Mets. In that start against New York, Lyons also walked four batters in six frames and somehow managed to escape some jams. Lyons does not have world beater stuff. He’s a replacement call-up for an injured starter, otherwise he’d still be in the minors. Lyons is and will be a career swingman/journeyman and he’s not a better option than Francisco Liriano.
Liriano is a lefty. The Cardinals are hitting .158 at home against lefties this season. Liriano has struck out 32 batters over his first 32 innings and his swinging strike rate of 18% is the highest mark of any starter with at least 10 IP. His 4.22 ERA is the result of an extremely inflated 27% hr/f. Liriano is 0-3 and that combined with his ERA makes him one of the best “buy-low” targets after the first (nearly) four weeks. This is a guy that renders lefthanders helpless and is coming off a 16-8 year in which he posted a skills supported 3.02 ERA and now he’s a dog (or pick’em) against a career minor-leaguer? That’s insulting. Invest.
Colorado +112 over LOS ANGELES
In 23 innings, Juan Nicasio has struck out 20 and walked just five. He also has a strong 49%/21%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile and that’s after pitching three of his first four starts at Coors. When you see Nicasio’s 4.30 ERA it may not look appealing but when look at his xERA of 3.38 after pitching three of four games at Coors, you begin to understand how tough he’s really been. However, this wager isn’t about backing Nicasio as much as it is fading Paul Maholm.
A July wrist injury launched Maholm’s second half slide slide last year, shelving him for a month. September elbow soreness didn't help. That 2H hr/f and accompanying loss of command drove ERA way up. Better health could yield better numbers, but Maholm’s strikeout rate and control are walking a fine line that screams out to avoid. You would have to go deep into the archives to find a pitcher that’s more overvalued than Maholm is right now. In 18 innings so far, Maholm has walked eight and struck out six. His swinging strike rate of 4% is the lowest in the majors of any starter or reliever. Maholm’s 5.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP are completely legitimate because his under the hood stats say so. This is one baseball game and anything can happen but in terms of value, Maholm is a must fade because he’s that bad.
