| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.88 |
| Last 30 Days | 25 | 30 | 0.00 | -0.28 |
| Season to Date | 25 | 30 | 0.00 | -0.28 |
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All plays are 2 units with the exception of Jays/Indians, which is 2.18 units to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
CLEVELAND/Toronto under 7½ -109
1:05 PM EST. When we see a total in the AL of under 8 with two seemingly average pitchers it’s a telling sign to play it under. Analyzing Mark Buehrle is like re-watching a favorite movie; you know exactly what to expect: an overachieving xERA, low strikeouts and some outstanding command. However, this year, Buehrle’s K’s are way up with 16 in 21 innings and his control has never been better with just two walks. Additionally, the Indians are hitting a measly .223 against lefties and Buehrle is crafty enough to keep Cleveland’s hitters off balance throughout.
Corey Kluber comes in with a 5.40 ERA after three starts, which makes this low total even more curious. However, his skills are on positive trends. Strikeouts, command, groundball rate are all up, and xERA says more growth ahead. Kluber also has an outstanding 12% swinging strike rate this season. Pay no attention to Kluber’s ERA, as it is a product of bad luck and nothing more. In fact, breakout targets don’t get much better than Kluber and we now get the perfect opportunity to cash in on his poor start with a solid under play against a Blue Jays team that has been hit by the injury bug early.
Atlanta -½ +112 over N.Y. METS (1st 5 innings)
7:10 PM EST. Ervin Santana is coming off a masterful 11-K performance in a win against the Phillies. Santana has pitched two games now after missing the first week of the season, both of which were pure quality starts. In fact, Santana has never looked better. He has 17 K’s and just two walks in 14 innings with a swinging strike rate of 17%. He faces the Mets who lead the majors with 150 strikeouts through 15 games.
Nobody really knew what to expect from Bartolo Colon a year ago, as he came off of 50-game PED suspension and approached his 40th birthday. Dude then goes out and puts up the lowest ERA of his career but skills call it into question, as his lack of swing-and-miss stuff leaves very little margin for error. Truth is, Colon thrived in Oakland because of an outrageously high and unsustainable strand percentage of 83%. Colon has a swinging strike rate of 6%. His strand rate this year is a more normal 73%. Colon's xERA of 4.78 provides a better picture of what his skills are more likely to deliver this year in Queens. And a low-strikeout total for a middling team is of marginal value. Aside from never seeing a hamburger that he didn’t like, a little hr/f regression could quickly send ERA rocketing even worse than it is now. Fade.
Baltimore +122 over BOSTON (1st 5 innings)
1:35 PM EST. Boston continues to be the league’s most overvalued team. The Red Sox are hitting .236. At Fenway they have two wins in seven games. They dropped the opener in this series, 8-4 last night and things absolutely don’t get easier today with Felix Doubrount facing an Orioles lineup that is heating up. Doubront limped to the finish line (9.77 ERA in September) last year as 2H skills fell flat for 2nd straight season. The bigger red flag here was the strikeout rate plunge, making an already shaky control an even bigger liability. In 15 innings this year, Doubront has almost as many walks (7) and he does strikeouts (8). Doubront’s velocity has declined also. He averaged 92.8 mph in 2011/12 and he was down to 90.5 in 2013 and this year it’s even a tick lower than that. He’s also not getting batters to swing at balls off the plate. In 2012, he got swings on 31% of his pitches outside the strike zone, in 2013 it was 24% and this year it’s 22%. As the favorite, Doubront and the Red Sox are an instant fade.
Bud Norris owns some nice skills in a few situations. He displayed this strong skill foundation against RH bats in 2013: 8.5 K/9 2.3 BB/9 and a 43% groundball rate. His command erodes against LH bats. He also seems to lose concentration when the bases are empty. He had terrible skills with the bases empty, compared to outstanding skills with runners on base and with runners in scoring position. Norris is a guy who could end up being a better fit in a late-inning role, since his slider has been his only true swing-and-miss pitch during the last two seasons. Still, he’s a better option taking back a price than Doubront is spotting one and it sure doesn’t hurt that the O’s are batting .260 over the past week while the Red Sox are batting .197 over that same span.
