| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 19 | 17 | 0.00 | +11.92 |
| Season to Date | 19 | 17 | 0.00 | +11.92 |
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All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Miami +100 over PHILADELPHIA
Not crazy about the Phillies as the chalk, especially when one of their third, fourth or fifth starters are scheduled. Jonathan Pettibone gets the call here and he didn’t even make it as the Phillies fifth starter but is penciled in only because Cole Hamels is on the rack. Pettibone started 18 games for the Phillies last year and went 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA over 100.1 innings. On the surface, Pettibone had a solid debut before a shoulder strain sidelined him for the final two months of the season. Before you go all-in, as a groundball pitcher with a very low strikeout rate and very few swinging strikes, Pettibone’s success is dependent upon his defense. Without the skills to control his own fate, he's mediocre end-rotation fodder. It’s also Pettibone’s first start of the year while most starters already have two games under their belt and Nathan Eovaldi is one of them.
2013 was a solid showing for Eovaldi. He put up a 3.39 ERA along with a particularly strong finish (2.43 ERA) in September. His fastball velocity (96.1 mph) was tops among starters in 2013. Couple that with a promising swinging strike rate and we have a potential ace on our hands that nobody knows about. In August and September of last year, right-handers could not hit him. Entering the off-season, Eovaldi was an off-speed pitch away from being a truly dominant starter. It now appears as though he’s added a couple more pitches to his arsenal. In his two starts, Eovaldi has struck out 14 batters and walked one in 13 innings of work. He has an elite groundball rate of 53%, a xERA of 2.71 and an outstanding (although unsustainable) line-drive rate of 8%. Eovaldi’s combination of a blazing fastball and high groundball rate gives him a unique profile and the fact that he’s a pooch against Pettibone is bordering on ludicrous.
N.Y. Mets +146 over L.A. ANGELS
Jonathon Niese's 2013 season seemed all but over with news of a partial tear of his rotator cuff and a 4.32 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in mid-June. His decision to rest instead of get surgery paid huge dividends down the stretch, as Niese went 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA after his return. The injury risk casts a dark cloud over Niese's outlook for 2014, but his skills are attractive—if his shoulder stays attached. Niese's ability to keep the ball on the ground has limited the long ball and kept his ERA in check. He's shown the ability to consistently post elite command rates with an above average strikeout rate. In his first start of the year against the Reds, Niese allowed just two runs on six hits and was yanked with two outs in the sixth inning. Overall, his solid command, strong groundball tilt and consistent history presents potential reward. His health makes him a risk and we would not play him as a favorite but as a big pooch against Jared Weaver, Niese and the Mets certainly have value.
Weaver remains the de-facto ace of a green Angels’ rotation and based on his surface stats alone there's no debating that he should be. Weaver has posted five straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERAs. While some might point to this as a positive, we see something completely different. We’ve been suggesting for two years that Weaver is on the brink of a collapse. Last season for the second straight year he posted a pedestrian strikeout rate. With fastball velocity that continues to wane (86 mph in '13), don't expect Weaver to improve upon that number. After a dip in '12, Weaver's xFB tilt returned but damage was mitigated once again by a hr/f% that refuses to regress to league average. Perhaps most damning is the quality of contact opponents are making off him. Incremental ticks in line-drive% and contact suggest he's becoming more hittable than ever. Out-pitching xERA has long been Weaver's M.O., and his 2013 results were no different. But unlike in past years, the discrepancy was fueled less by a fortunate hit%/strand% and more due to questionable skills, which makes his dominant start/disaster start scores all the more befuddling. Now an aging extreme fly-ball pitcher with average velocity, this is not the time to bank on one more year of ace-like results. Weaver’s extreme luck for 3+ years may have run its course, as he’s started 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA. Weaver is not an ace, he’s a fifth starter but he’s in the price range of an ace making him one of MLB’s most overvalued starters.
Washington +107 over ATLANTA
No question this is a close game but when we can take back a tag on the Nationals in a game they have at least a 50% chance of winning, you can pencil us in almost every time. The Nationals are 7-3 overall and they are 2-0 against lefties. They will face a southpaw here in Alex Wood. Wood went 3-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 78 innings for Atlanta a year ago. This 2012 second rounder flew through the minors and dominated early, with four pure quality outings in four starts last August. But the workload caught up with him as he was cuffed around in September. With a high groundball% and solid command, the foundation is in place for sustained success. With that, we’ll keep an eye on Wood and will happily invest when he’s a dog on the road. That’s when he’ll hold some value. As a favorite against a team that is superior to the one he pitches for, Wood and the Braves have little value here, prompting us to step in.
Taylor Jordan allowed just six hits and one run in 6.1 innings in his first start of the year against these same Braves and gets another crack at them here. Jordan might be viewed as a sixth starter because once Doug Fister returns, Jordan or Tanner Roark will likely head to the bullpen. That talk just gives Jordan even more profit potential. He made big strides this spring against LH bats, helping to produce an overall spring line of a 20/2 K/BB in 20 IP. With swing-and-miss stuff and an extremely high groundball rate, Jordan remains a strong bet to emerge as an impact starter in 2014. Of course the Nats can win this one.
