| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 23 | 0.00 | +22.79 |
| Season to Date | 52 | 39 | 0.00 | +25.91 |
#749 Wagner +108 over FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
11:00 AM EST. Northeast Conference contests very rarely acquire any form of attention and even if they did they would be likened to a preliminary bout, hours before the main event or a mid-card contest. The 11:00 AM start for this fixture implies that almost no one will brandish any interest in this 2016 NEC Championship rematch, especially in the West where coffee machines haven’t even gone off yet. Given the fact that the two participants in this affair are a combined 0-1 ATS on the year despite playing 43 games already, one can assume that neither combatant will be seeing hefty amounts of cash thrown down on them this morning, be it that they have been non-existent on the scope of many books all season long. The good news is that a successful wager, whether it be an ACC primetime contest or a NEC match just after breakfast, pays the same.
For those are who unfamiliar with the Wagner/Fairleigh Dickinson feud, let us take you back to March 8th, 2016. We will certainly get our cigarette ready and throw on a nice suit, playing the role of Rod Serling as we will narrate a brief introduction before taking you into The Twilight Zone where the Knights would secure their first ever NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bid with an eight-point win as a nine-point pooch against Wagner. The Seahawks (Wagner) were expecting to leave Staten Island as a #16 seed in the Big Dance and instead their glass slipper shattered even when they outmuscled FDU on the boards 42-29. Recently, on January 5, these teams would meet again and despite securing 20 more rebounds than Fairleigh Dickinson, while also hitting more field goals than them, the Seahawks would lose by a point.
We can play the revenge angle here but Wagner likely has a rage that really would be appropriate to be chronicled on The Twilight Zone. The Seahawks feel the Monsters are due on Maple Street just like they are due for a win against Fairleigh Dickinson. FDU has been the proverbial monkey on Wagner’s back and with both teams in the top five of the NEC standings, this games bares significance, as the winner remains within striking distance of the current table-topper, Mount St. Mary’s. Wagner has dominated the last two times these two have met and have nothing to show for it. In basketball, when a team gets dominated, they rarely win but somehow Farleigh has overcome that not once, but twice. Vindication comes in the form of a victory and we’re strongly suggesting the better team gets it here. The Seahawks outright get this call.
#540 CLEVELAND ST +4 -106 over Oakland
1:00 PM EST. The Golden Grizzlies home loss to this very Cleveland State team has all been forgotten. As a 14-point underdog, the Vikings would travel to Oakland and knock off the Golden Grizzlies by 11 points when they defeated Oakland 76-65 on January 16th. While we rarely put emphasis on one result, we have a hard time overlooking Oakland’s propensity to lose games against marginalized competition. Look no further than the Grizzlies five-point home defeat against Detroit Mercy as a 18½-point favorite, which preceded the Cleveland State loss and two more losses outright as a favorite against Wright State and Green Bay. The market assessment of this Golden Grizzlies team as a whole has been off all year. We now get to fade the Grizzlies at the right time. In its last outing, Oakland soundly defeated Youngstown State on the road, 90-76 as a seven-point favorite, which will prompt most of this market to trust them again but the oddsmakers do not trust them and that means more to us.
When we say that the market assessment has been off on Oakland, that would be putting it mildly. Previous to the Youngstown State win and as a 12½-point choice, Oakland would require overtime to shake off UW-Milwaukee. Previous to that, the Grizzlies would lose by eight as an eight-point favorite against Green Bay and most notably they would fall by 21 against Wright State on the road as a 3½-point favorite. A 14-point win over Youngstown St and suddenly the Grizzlies get their credibility back? We don’t think so.
Now, Cleveland State get the Grizz again on their own court. While Cleveland State would need nothing less than a tournament victory to earn a trip to the Men’s Basketball Tournament, the amount of parody in this league in particular precipitates a notion that anything is truly possible here. One thing remains certain, which is Oakland has a documented account of poor performances. If it were one or two games we could overlook it but it’s not and now we’ll look to reap the benefits of that ill-perceived market assessment.
#694 UCSB +6 +102 over UC Davis
10:00 PM EST. We are going to continue our assault against UC Davis for a number of reasons. First, spotting road points in the Big West is bad strategy that has proven to be a risky venture. This one is no different. Davis has had only two days to sort themselves out after losing to Cal Poly so we have yet to see what Davis team takes the floor in Santa Barbara and what effect the loss had on their psyche. Prior to the two combatants meeting a month ago on Davis’ floor, the Gauchos owned a four-game winning streak against the Aggies and also winning six of their previous seven overall. The Aggies snapped this era of dominance with authority when they rolled the Gauchos 73-47 as an 8½-point home favorite on January 4th. That result certainly has influence on how this market will proceed but we see it as fool’s gold. When you toss in that the Gauchos have lost their previous five overall, UCSB seems like prime pickins for Davis. However, Davis likely entered that previous meeting in a different state of mind. This was a basketball on the come-up looking to dispatch a conference foe that seemingly had their number. Now, Davis is the team everyone is looking to beat and since ascending to this role, the Aggies have appeared unprepared to be “Kings of the Hill”.
For those citing UCSB’s skid as rationale to stay clear of the Gauchos, we remind you that Cal Poly was on a hideous skid before they knocked off UC Irvine. The Gauchos being on a skid may actually be an understatement, as they have lost five straight, eight of nine and have just three lousy wins all year. UCSB’s last four losses have been by 10, 21, 22 and 26 points respectively. However, the Gauchos played a difficult non-conference schedule that was ranked 33rd toughest in the country and that included games against USC, UCLA, SMU, Nevada and Omaha among others. UC Davis’ out of conference SOS ranked 197th. That said, we’re not going to sugarcoat this is any way. The Gauchos are a weak team that has one lousy conference win in one of the weakest conferences in the country. However, we also are able to recognize when a teams’ stock has hit rock bottom and when that occurs, inflated points follow. That is 100% the case here so when inflated points are offered, it is our duty to grab them and let the chips fall where they may.
Clev St is 2.12 units to win 2....the other two are 2 unit bets.
