| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 11 | 9 | 0.00 | +3.94 |
| Season to Date | 11 | 9 | 0.00 | +3.94 |
#570 ST. BONAVENTURE -5 -106 over UNC Wilmington
6:00 PM EST. This is really a good time of year to go after overvalued teams with great records and skewed numbers and we trust we found another one here in the Seahawks. UNC Wilmington is 7-1 and on a five game winning streak. The Seahawks attracted attention last March when they took a three-point lead into halftime against Duke in their first-round matchup at the big dance. The market is more aware of them this year, especially since they are putting up some sick offensive numbers. UNC Wilmington has scored 102, 97 and 126 points respectively in its last three outings. However, in its last game against the Division II Pfeiffer Falcons, the Seahawks allowed 113 points. The 2-6 Western Michigan Broncos also hung 92 on UNCW. The Seahawks 7-1 record is a bunch of skewed numbers on their home court. They have traveled twice this season with the first game being a victory against Eastern Kentucky in a game that went into OT and the latest being that aforementioned Western Michigan game. This season the Seahawks interior defense has been awful. UNCW is allowing opponents to shoot 54.8 percent on 2-point attempts (ranking 299th), which is a major problem that has been masked because of its record. They have also played a bunch of marshmallows and there is a price to pay for playing weak competition. That price should be paid up in full here.
First off, the Bonnies play in the tougher A-10 conference. Very quietly, St. Bonaventure tied Dayton and VCU atop the Atlantic 10 with a 14-4 record a year ago. Marcus Posley is the only significant loss for the Bonnies but they have three transfers from the Division I ranks stepping in. The Bonnies are 6-2 and have the best two players on the floor in this game by a wide margin in Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, who are averaging 23 and 21 points per game respectively. Denzel Gregg and Idris Taqqee are in the process of going from role players to stars. Last season, Gregg was named the conference’s sixth man of the year and that’s after limited playing time. Gregg is one of those rare players that disrupts everything his opponents are trying to do. The Bonnies are a very athletic, talented, versatile and deep team that should easily be able to exploit the Seahawks many flaws and win this one going away.
#613 Tennessee-Martin +13 over ILLINOIS STATE
3:00 PM EST. When you consider the body of work of the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks so far this season, there are two possible conclusions. This is either the bet of the year so far or the sucker bet of the year so far but sucker bets are usually reserved for marquee match-ups that take plenty of action of which this one will not. We’ll therefore consider it a strong play. The Skyhawks enter at 8-2 and they have compiled a resume of victories at home and on the road that is worth mentioning. The Skyhawks have won their last three since being tarred at Kentucky by a score of 111-76 on November 25th. Still, scoring 76 on the #1 team in the country is worth something and the Skyhawks did that despite turning it over 17 times. The Skyhawks threatened Ole Miss on their own court to kick off the 2016-17 season. UTM lost by just a three-ball and could have easily won that game. Since that loss, its only other defeat was the aforementioned Kentucky loss. Tennessee-Martin remains undefeated against opponents that are not from a Power Conference (in this case their two losses are against teams from the SEC). The Skyhawks have victories over Duquesne and they also beat a Florida Atlantic team that knocked off Ohio State.
Illinois State’s crown achievement so far is a home win against current #23 New Mexico. They also played TCU tough in a nine-point loss. Perhaps the market’s assessment of this contest is compelled by the Redbirds two games against quality competition, as there is no other explanation that could justify the points the Redbirds are spotting here. The Skyhawks are a better shooting team overall, they have a stronger bench and they even have an edge in the free-throw department, which could be key when taking back lumber like this. We also like that the Redbirds have played just seven games thus far while the Skyhawks have played 10 and are more battle tested. Illinois State should be weary of this Tennessee-Martin team, as they clearly have aspirations this year of playing in games of consequence come February and March and while the Redbirds have played a couple of decent teams, so, too, have the Skyhawks and they didn’t look out of place in any of them. Another big difference is we are getting massive points here. That is our prompt to step in.
#615 E. Illinois +126 over W. ILLINOIS
3:00 PM EST. Make no mistake about it that these are two very weak basketball teams that might lose 20 games each this year. However, a win with one of these dregs pays the exact same as a win with Villanova or Notre Dame. The difference is that the oddsmakers pay more attention to marquee match-ups while games like this can easily slip under the radar.
Western Illinois has owned its crosstown rivals over the years and that is the main reason that the Leathernecks are the chalk here. Eastern Illinois has lost the last seven trips here. The market often puts emphasis on one teams' domination over another but we often do not, especially when it’s stretched out over time. In other words, a victory from four, five, six or seven years ago has zero impact on what happens here. It’s actually beyond ludicrous that bettors use these useless “trends” to make picks in order to rationalize their decisions. Well, with thousands and thousands of games played every year, trends develop over time and some stick out more than others. We can sometimes use those useless trends to our advantage by playing the better team at a price, which is precisely the situation here.
EIU is 5-4 overall and they also have a winning ATS record. The Panthers also knocked off the Leathernecks in Charleston (at home) just under a month ago. The Panthers defeated the Leathernecks by a score of 73-64. EIU has been the better program the past few years but they haven’t been able to get this monkey off their back until that aforementioned win very recently.
Western Illinois is getting progressively worse as the season wears on. They have lost three straight to Miami (Ohio), American and Chicago State. Its two wins this year in eight tries have come against two Division II schools in Oak Hills Christian and Crown College. In other words, the Panthers have yet to defeat a Division I school, yet here they are favored over a team that has four Division I wins in eight attempts. We get the better outfit that has broken the WIU winning streak in this rivalry series We also get to take back a tag against a team that has lost five of their last six overall. Regardless of EIU’s recent loss at Northern Kentucky, we have to like the Panthers’ competitive edge in this matchup, as they have the game plan, the better talent and the blueprint to beat this team again, just like they did less than a month ago.
Eastern Illinois is a 2 unit bet while the other two are to win 2 units.
Thanks again for all the positive feedback in previous threads and I mention that because I'm superstitious as hell.
Good luck!
