| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.72 |
| Last 30 Days | 45 | 48 | 0.00 | +4.00 |
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HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Philadelphia +125 over ATLANTA
The Braves won 7-3 last night over the Angels but that was a misleading score, as L.A. had 12 hits and plenty of opportunities to blow the game wide open early on. Atlanta could not muster a damn thing for five innings off of Hector Santiago, one of the biggest stiff starters in the league. The Braves are on a current run of just five wins in its past 12 games and will send out their ace in this one, Julio Teheran. Teheran is 6-4 in 14 starts with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Teheran has exciting skills, but he's not yet elite. His pretty surface stats have been aided by very lucky hit and strand rates of 24% and 81% respectively. A 1½-variance between ERA and xERA usually doesn't last very long. The strikeout and walk ratios are very good but Teheran’s 78 K’s in 97 frames says he’s not blowing away hitters. Teheran also gives up a ton of fly-balls, which puts HR damage into play, especially once that hit rate normalizes. Teheran definitely has the skills in place to be a productive pitcher. His ability to limit walks coupled with some strikeout potential at a young age should be coveted. However, his underlying skills haven't backed up the elite numbers he's posted so far, making him an overvalued pitcher, especially against a guy like Cole Hamels.
Hamels is not good, he’s great. Pitching half his games at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, Hamels comes into this one with a 3.07 ERA after 10 starts. He has struck out 70 batters in 67 frames while walking just 22. In four road starts, Hamels is 1-1 with an ERA of 1.95, an oppBA of .223 and a xERA of 2.16, which is the best xERA of any starter in baseball with four or more road starts. Hamels has thrown seven straight pure quality starts. He has a 1.85 ERA over his last six starts, along with an elite batted ball profile of 52%/18%/29% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball. For whatever reason, Hamels’ has fallen off the radar of elite starters but it’s not justified. He’s been as good as Felix Hernandez and others but has just two wins because of a true lack of run support. He remains a top-shelf pitcher at a second-tier price. Invest.
Kansas City +128 over DETROIT
We’re not jumping off this bandwagon just yet. Kansas City has now won seven in a row while outscoring the opposition 45-17 over that span. They went into Chicago this past weekend and outscored the South Side 22-5 over the three-game sweep. The Royals are hitting a league-leading .345 over the past seven games and they remain the toughest team in the major leagues to strike out. In fact, K.C. batters have struck out a league low 173 times. Jason Vargas has been as steady as ever for the Royals. He’s thrown 11 pure quality starts in 14 games. Vargas has also seen an uptick in strikeouts with 27 over his past 33 innings and he’s been near flawless on the road with a 1.60 ERA after six road starts. His road dominance will not continue but Vargas and the red-hot Royals definitely offer up some value here against Justin Verlander and the Tigers.
Verlander is not the dominant pitcher one has come to expect but he’s priced like one in almost every start. He sports a 4.61 ERA and a 67/39 K/BB after 92 frames and it’s not because of bad fortune. Verlander’s groundball rate is in serious decline and has hit a career low of 38% over his past five starts. On the year, Verlander has a 1.51 WHIP but that is also trending the wrong way to an eye-opening 1.83 WHIP over his past six starts. Verlander’s decline in K’s is the result of diminished velocity. According to PITCHf/x, his average 93.1 MPH fastball is the lowest of his career and marks the fifth straight season of velocity loss. He’s also walking more batters and has in fact walked 15 over his past 32 innings. Verlander has close to 1900 career innings and it’s started taking a toll. The Tigers have dropped four of his past five starts and there is nothing in Verlander’s pitching profile that suggests a rebound is coming anytime soon. The Royals are seeing beach balls and we’ll continue to ride them out until they cool off.
Chicago +103 over MIAMI
Jason Hammel taking back a tag of any kind against Tom Koehler must be bet. Koehler comes in with a 3.68 ERA and an oppBA of .229 but it’s nothing more than a mirage. In 78 innings, Koehler’s BB/K split of 35/56 is bordering on troublesome and does not in any way support his surface stats. A mediocre K rate coupled with poor control rarely results in long-term success. Koehler brings both to the table. Koehler’s WHIP of 1.28 is worse than the league average but note that his WHIP of 1.50 in his last five starts raises more red flags. Despite the solid surface stats we've seen from Koehler, there simply isn't much to get excited about from a skills perspective. His numbers have been propped up by some good luck, which makes this is a classic case of skills not supporting the stats. We may have already seen the best Koehler has to offer and he is without question the second best starter in this contest. Regression is coming.
Jason Hammel has walked six batters over his past 30 innings while striking out 33. His 33 K’s over that span and his 76 K’s in 83 innings overall are completely supported by his 13% swing and miss rate. Hammel has nine pure quality starts in 13 tries. He has posted a 2.06 ERA since the beginning of May with a strong 1.06 WHIP. A change in Hammel’s pitch mix could explain the sudden skills surge. He threw his four-seam fastball 30% of the time in 2013. He's throwing it only 10% of the time now. He uses his two-seam fastball 50% of the time and it has become a lot more effective for him. His K% on that pitch has jumped from 10% to 18%. Hammel has been tagged for two earned runs or less in seven of his past 10 starts. He just threw seven shutout innings against the Marlins 10 days ago and that was five days after he threw a seven inning, four-hit gem against the Brewers. Hammel has been taken yard just one time over his past nine starts and certainly offers up some value here against his inferior mound opponent.
