| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.72 |
| Last 30 Days | 27 | 33 | 0.00 | -1.76 |
| Season to Date | 28 | 33 | 0.00 | +0.24 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Mets are 2.1 units to win 2. Other 2 are for 2 units
N.Y. METS -105 over St. Louis (1st 5 innings)
Because our selections are largely based on the starters, we’re going to play a high majority of games in the first five innings only, especially when the respective bullpens are not in our favor. The Cardinals pen has an xERA of 2.88 while the Mets bullpen xERA is 4.23 and that’s a huge difference. Jenrry Mejia had TJS in 2011, forearm tendinitis in May and bone-spur surgery (pitching elbow) in August. He has yet to throw 95 innings in a professional season. The stunner of this profile is his second half pre-surgery effectiveness, with reduced low-90s velocity. Power stuff with big potential, Mejia’s health will determine his ceiling right now it’s looking pretty good. Mejia is walking too many batters but only walked two in his last start in Arizona. The Mets are now 3-0 in his three starts and he seems to be getting stronger each outing. Mejia has a 52% groundball rate, 18 K’s in 16 innings and an elite swinging strike rate of 14%. In his lone start at home this season, Mejia went six full against the Reds and didn’t allow a run on just four hits.
Meanwhile, Tyler Lyons should not be road chalk. Lyons went 2-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 53 IP for the Cardinals last year. He failed to make the team out of spring training but the injury to Joe Kelly prompted his call-up. Lyons is a strike-thrower without world-beater stuff that had a fine AAA year last season with a 3.32 ERA, 86/19 K/BB in 100 innings. He also recorded four pure quality starts in eight St. Louis starts but an unlucky 62% strand rate was the driving force behind his 5.56 ERA. Lyons is a ninth round pick from 2010 that has had an interesting career in the minors, pitching to a 4.30 ERA and a BAA of .306. Lyons comes at hitters with a three pitch mix: a fastball in the 87-90 mph range, a below average change up, and a plus curveball, his go-to pitch but it’s difficult to succeed at this level with only one plus offering. While he prevents hitters from reaching by way of the walk, the amount of hits he allows has driven his WHIP to below average (1.30 career). Some of that can be translated to bad luck (BABIP well above .300), but it may have to do with hitter’s ability to pick up on his pitches and make quick adjustments due to his below average fastball-change-up combo. Lyons does not have the strongest of arsenals and that’s why he’s a career minor leaguer and also why he does not warrant this billing.
Houston +235 over SEATTLE
Price sometimes dictates the play. Despite King Felix being on the hill, the Mariners are a mess right now and cannot be favored in this price range. Seattle has dropped six in a row and has been torched 34 runs against over that span. Furthermore, the Mariners are hitting just .227 as a team, the third worst mark in the majors. Felix Hernandez has maintained elite skills and surface stats for five consecutive seasons. In fact, his strikeout rate per nine innings over that period has continued to go up: 7.8, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.7, 9.5 and his control has improved during the last two seasons. But there are some reasons for concern. His four-seam fastball velocity has declined in three straight seasons and now sits at 92 mph. Every once in a while, Hernandez throws a clunker and these are exactly the type of games they happen because he takes a team too lightly and his focus is not 100%. We’re not suggesting that will occur here but the total here sits at just 6½ and if the Astros can score a couple runs or even have the game tied in the late innings, this wager will suddenly have a whole lot more appeal. With Dallas Keuchel going for the Astros that’s a distinct possibility.
Keuchel had two pure quality starts against the M’s last season. Under the radar, Keuchel has started the season strongly, throwing pure quality starts in each of his last two games. Last season, the Mariners hit only .229 versus left-handed pitching, which was worst in MLB. In 18 innings, Keuchel has walked five and struck out 16. He has an elite 62% groundball rate to go along with an elite 11% swinging strike rate. Keuchel’s 12% line-drive rate is the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers that have made at least three starts. Incidentally, Hernandez’s line-drive rate is 23%. Keuchel’s 3.12 xERA along with his other outstanding skills make him extremely worthy of backing at this price.
COLORADO -1½ +161 over San Francisco
Jorge De La Rosa is 0-3 with a 7.55 ERA and those surface stats have him very undervalued. De la Rosa's surface numbers say "fade," but his skills hold a different message. His strikeout rate is up significantly (20 K’s in 19 IP) and has even surpassed his pre-TJ surgery level. His 20 K’s are supported by his 12% swinging strike rate. De La Rosa has a nifty 54%/15%/31% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his 19 innings so far but his 48% extremely unlucky strand rate has his ERA grossly inflated. De La Rosa’s xERA is 3.55 and he’s exactly why we stress buying skills and not surface stats.
Then there’s Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong got lit up in the first half of last season before getting shelved for three months (broken pitching hand). Upon his return, his second half results were much better but his skills were actually worse. Vogelsong had been significantly outpitching his skills during his 2011-12 resurgence so a return to relevance hinges on him rediscovering a talent he never really had. In three starts, Vogelsong’s swinging strike rate is a measly 5%. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball of 24%/24%/52% is a disaster waiting to happen at this park. Throw is a WHIP of 1.53 at this unforgiving venue and Vogelsong shouldn’t last three innings here, as Coors is +36% runs scored, +33% LHB HR, and +20% RHB HR. Additionally, the Rockies are hitting a sick .374 at home against right-handed starters, making Vogelsong’s chances of success about as low as it can possibly get.
