| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +6.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 20 | 0.00 | +18.99 |
| Season to Date | 45 | 34 | 0.00 | +22.31 |
Siena -1½ -110 over QUINNIPIAC
7:00 PM EST. Make no mistake that this is a battle of cupcakes but it bodes importance for both constituents who are currently running in the middle of the pack in the MAAC race. Both teams enter with losing records with the Saints of Siena at 9-13 and the Bobcats of Quinnipiac at 8-13. However, in the MAAC standings, both these teams are separated by just a game overall. Siena is 6-5 in the MAAC while Quinnipiac is 5-6 so the popular ideology here is that Quinnipiac will have to win this game and because it is a home, it is expected to do so. The old adage in college basketball for road teams in weaker conferences is that they have to be 10 points better than the host to emerge victorious but we’re not buying that adage here.
There are several reasons to suggest the Saint Bernard’s are being sold short here. While the Bobcats have compiled their 8-13 mark against the 246th ranked non-conference strength of schedule (SOS), Siena has played the 43rd toughest docket in out-of-conference play. That’s a massive difference that matters. Therefore, any high rankings in terms of pace, points scored, etc., are all skewed numbers when it comes to the host and skewed the wrong way against the visitor. In other words not all 8-13 or 9-13 teams are equal. The bottom line is that Siena has seen and played bigger and badder. The Saints have traveled out to Kansas, George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Florida Gulf Coast and UNC-Asheville. The Saints hosted Vermont and Bucknell and even managed to pull off the upset against the Bison. Kansas needs no introduction and for that matter neither do the Colonials of George Washington or the Bonnies. Currently, Florida Gulf Coast sits atop their standings in its respective conference, as do Bucknell, Vermont and UNC-Asheville. All four of those teams have a legit shot of making the Big Dance. Against quality opposition all season long, the Saints have not looked a bit out of place with a 21-point loss to Kansas, a two-point loss to GW, a 12-point loss at UNC Ashville, a 7-point loss at the Bonnies and a four-point loss at Florida Gulf Coast.
The visitor here is quite accustomed to going on the road and competing. 13 of its 22 games have been on the road. Siena is coming off a disturbing 77-66 home loss against Iona, which has its stock lower than it should be. That loss to Iona works in our favor big time because it has created a very beatable number here. On Saturday, one day after that aforementioned loss, the Saints sat through a three-hour film session. That was their reward for their uninspired effort.
Saints head coach Jimmy Patsos said he followed the advice on handling defeats from his former University of Maryland colleague Billy Hahn, who's now an assistant at West Virginia. "The tape doesn't lie,'' Patsos said Sunday. "We're going to rewind it, and we're going to rewind it, and we're going to rewind it, and we're going to rewind it. Billy Hahn taught me, you have to show them, and show them, and show them."
Siena will come into this one well-prepped and with a ton of energy. They have learned how to rebound after a loss, as they do not have consecutive losses over their past seven games. We now get the superior team that is so much more experienced (Siena has four 1000-point scorers in its starting lineup) and battle tested and we’re absolutely going to bite.
OKLAHOMA +120 over Oklahoma St
9:00 PM EST. One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is not sticking with a team they liked after ripping up a ticket on them the game before but this one goes even deeper and sets up beautifully for the underdog. There are so many great angles at work here and we’ll start with the buy-low, sell high angle. The Sooners are coming off a completely uninspiring and lame effort against #25 Florida on Saturday in a game the Sooners would get steamrolled in by 32 points. That was a marquee matchup that was seen nationally and those that watched it are not anxious to be backing an OU team that looked that bad two days later. The Sooners have dropped three in a row and 10 of their last 12 games.
By contrast, OSU has won three straight capped off by Saturday’s 99-71 resounding victory over Arkansas. The Cowboys have won three straight all by 13 points or more. What we have here is one team coming off a blowout loss playing another team coming off a blowout win. Buy low, sell high.
Let’s now put aside the recent results and focus more on value and what the odds makers think because both are more relevant than a handful of results. On Saturday, the Gators opened as a 1½-point favorite in Oklahoma. Two days later, the Cowboys cannot be priced in the same range as Florida but the results of Saturday’s games have greatly influenced this number. Two games earlier, Oklahoma was a 2-point home favorite over Iowa State so the odds makers have great respect for the Sooners talent and potential. Oklahoma’s blowout loss to the Gators on Saturday was the result of a young team getting a little too jacked up in a marquee game. It happens all the time but we’re not going to put much weight on it whatsoever, especially with “Bedlam” on deck. Of course, OSU had Bedlam on deck too but they had a much weaker opponent on Saturday than the Sooners did.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) ranks the Sooners’ strength of schedule as the second toughest in the nation behind only Wake Forest. Four of Oklahoma’s last nine games have been against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll at the time of competition (#2 Kansas, #2 Baylor, #7 West Virginia, #25 Florida).Lon Kruger’s team just got embarrassed. Oklahoma is now in line to play its best game of the season or damn close to it. While we absolutely respect the Cowboys, they are wrongly favored based on very recent results instead of the entire picture. OU has lost three straight but they were very good in two of those losses and they figure to be very good here too. Regardless of outcome, there is such great value on the home dog here so it must be played.
MERCER -12½ -106 over W. Carolina
7:00 PM EST. Western Carolina is getting far too much credit here only because the Bears of Mercer are not getting enough. The Catamounts are 7-15 overall, which is not much worse than Mercer’s 10-12 record but there is a big discrepancy in talent here that is not revealed in the overall records of these two. That provides us with this outstanding play on a underpriced home favorite.
Western Carolina played the 20th ranked out-of-conference strength of schedule in the country. That gives them some market credibility but what good is it to play superior opponents when you get destroyed every time out. To the opposition, scheduling games against the Catamounts is nothing more than a glorified practice. WCU lost 92-43 to Miami, 66-38 to Ohio State, 98-63 to Marshall, 90-44 to Marquette and 90-37 to West Virginia. Western Carolina is like the Washington Generals playing the Harlem Globetrotters thus, its out-of-conference schedule means jack when they get steamrolled every time they play quality opposition.
Mercer’s out-of-conference strength of schedule ranked 48th in the country but the difference is that outside of a bad loss to Clemson, the Bears competed. Furthermore, Mercer’s 10-12 record is one of the more misleading records in the country. The Bears have played nine games that have been decided by four points or fewer and they’re 3-6 in those games. What’s more remarkable is that all six of those losses have been by two points, and three have come in Southern Conference play. Again, that’s six losses by two points so we could very easily be talking about a 16-6 team as opposed to a 10-12 team. Mercer has led in every single league game thus far and has also had the lead in numerous out of conference games too.
Nine days ago, Mercer went into Western Carolina and won by 20 so the only danger here is that the Bears show up in body only but that’s not who they are. Mercer’s head coach Bob Hoffman said. “The thing I really admire about this team is how no matter what’s transpired, they show up every game and play their tails off. That endorsement by their head coach helps us to seal the seal the deal in our endorsement of the Bears in this game. Western Carolina is used to getting whacked on the road and nothing suggests the same won’t happen here.
OU is a 2 unit bet while the other two are to win 2 units.
