Hey Rxers: Have not posted for a bit but I'm feeling so good about these plays that I figured I would share.
LOS ANGELES -½ +153 over San Jose
Regulation only. Some teams can’t escape their ghosts. The Blue Notes were once again knocked out early in the playoffs after being the favorite to win the Cup for most of the year. Now it’s the Sharks’ turn. San Jose has been regular season giants for years but has always failed to get by a round or two in the playoffs, especially when the going got tougher. With a 3-0 series lead over the Kings and seemingly being ready to alleviate that choke label, San Jose lost game 4 in Los Angeles to give the Kings a little life. No big deal, as it was unreasonable to expect a sweep before the series began and they would surely finish them off back at the Shark Tank in Game 5. Didn’t happen. The Kings dominated play, made the Sharks uncomfortable and instilled some doubt in both the players and Antti Niemi’s fragile mind while proving to themselves that they can defeat this team again. Now the series shifts back to L.A. and we frankly have no idea how the Sharks are going to pull this one out. San Jose is wounded, they are scared, they are getting beaten physically and they are getting worn down. Poor offensive penetration, no drive and no killer instinct whatsoever has been seen in the Sharks last two games. Despite being up 3-2 in the series, the Sharks are on the ropes.
At the end of the day, San Jose just does not have the playoff mentality to knock off a giant in on the road (isn’t that the reason the Bruins got rid of Joe Thornton). Jonathan Quick has his confidence back while Niemi has been pulled in consecutive games. Darryl Sutter, to his credit, has stuck with Quick when other coaches would have panicked and switched. Todd McLellan is in panic mode. Yeah, the Sharks can still win this series but momentum has taken a huge shift and if San Jose does win this series, it’s not going to happen at the Staples Center. Prepare for Game 7.
MINNESOTA -½ +125 over Colorado
Regulation only. We have the Wild in the series for a rather significant wager but that’s not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. You see, for almost every shift, period and game, the Wild have been the better team by a wide margin but the Avalanche have gotten every bounce in this series and it’s actually mind-boggling to see them up 3-2 in the series. In the two games in Minnesota, Colorado looked like a minor-league team compared to the Wild. Truth is, this series should be over. When you look at puck possession, time in the offensive end, defense, shots on net and scoring chances, Minnesota should have swept this series. The good news is that they are not demoralized. Adversity makes teams stronger and Minnesota has looked better with each passing game. Had it not been for two tying goals with the net empty in Games 1 and 5, this series would be over. Furthermore, it’s not a case of weak goaltending hurting Minnesota either. Darcy Kuemper is rock solid in net but again, every bounce has gone the Avs way, as Kuemper has not allowed a soft goal and nothing suggests that he will.
You can’t keep getting outplayed by such a wide margin and expect positive results. In the two games in Minnesota, the Wild outshot the Avalanche 46-22 and 32-12 respectively. Nothing is going to change here except the margin of victory for Minnesota is likely going to be by two, three or four goals. Even the outstanding goaltending of Semyon Varlamov is not going to bail the Avs out in Minnesota because the Wild are so much better and they’re hungry like wolves. Bet with confidence here because Minnesota will not be denied a chance to win this series in Colorado in Game 7.
COLUMBUS +115 over Pittsburgh
OT included. Do we really have to go over this again? Do the Penguins really deserve to be favored in Columbus just because they finished much higher in the standings? The regular season proves nothing. Just ask St. Louis, who would have much rather finished eighth and played Anaheim instead of Chicago. We could write an entire book on why the NHL regular season and playoff format is a complete farce but that’s an argument for another time. The issue at hand here is this series and while Pittsburgh has deserved every win, so, too, have the Jackets and it would be unreasonable to think the Jackets can’t win this game.
In that respect, we have to play the value. Columbus has played better at home than they have at the Igloo. They have at least a 50% chance of taking this back to Pittsburgh and a valid argument could be made that the Jackets have a better than 50% chance of winning. However, Pittsburgh is favored because the oddsmakers have all the data on which teams are taking all or the majority of the money. Pittsburgh remains a hugely popular public team and so the oddsmakers are forced to make them the favorite. If this same Columbus team were wearing Red Wings, Bruins, Maple Leafs or Canadiens jerseys, Pittsburgh would not be favored. That once again brings us to value. Pittsburgh can no doubt win this game, only a fool would think otherwise. However, all the value remains on the home team because like we mentioned earlier, the Jackets chances of winning may be better. That’s the way we’ve played this series throughout and we’re not about to change now.
LOS ANGELES -½ +153 over San Jose
Regulation only. Some teams can’t escape their ghosts. The Blue Notes were once again knocked out early in the playoffs after being the favorite to win the Cup for most of the year. Now it’s the Sharks’ turn. San Jose has been regular season giants for years but has always failed to get by a round or two in the playoffs, especially when the going got tougher. With a 3-0 series lead over the Kings and seemingly being ready to alleviate that choke label, San Jose lost game 4 in Los Angeles to give the Kings a little life. No big deal, as it was unreasonable to expect a sweep before the series began and they would surely finish them off back at the Shark Tank in Game 5. Didn’t happen. The Kings dominated play, made the Sharks uncomfortable and instilled some doubt in both the players and Antti Niemi’s fragile mind while proving to themselves that they can defeat this team again. Now the series shifts back to L.A. and we frankly have no idea how the Sharks are going to pull this one out. San Jose is wounded, they are scared, they are getting beaten physically and they are getting worn down. Poor offensive penetration, no drive and no killer instinct whatsoever has been seen in the Sharks last two games. Despite being up 3-2 in the series, the Sharks are on the ropes.
At the end of the day, San Jose just does not have the playoff mentality to knock off a giant in on the road (isn’t that the reason the Bruins got rid of Joe Thornton). Jonathan Quick has his confidence back while Niemi has been pulled in consecutive games. Darryl Sutter, to his credit, has stuck with Quick when other coaches would have panicked and switched. Todd McLellan is in panic mode. Yeah, the Sharks can still win this series but momentum has taken a huge shift and if San Jose does win this series, it’s not going to happen at the Staples Center. Prepare for Game 7.
MINNESOTA -½ +125 over Colorado
Regulation only. We have the Wild in the series for a rather significant wager but that’s not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. You see, for almost every shift, period and game, the Wild have been the better team by a wide margin but the Avalanche have gotten every bounce in this series and it’s actually mind-boggling to see them up 3-2 in the series. In the two games in Minnesota, Colorado looked like a minor-league team compared to the Wild. Truth is, this series should be over. When you look at puck possession, time in the offensive end, defense, shots on net and scoring chances, Minnesota should have swept this series. The good news is that they are not demoralized. Adversity makes teams stronger and Minnesota has looked better with each passing game. Had it not been for two tying goals with the net empty in Games 1 and 5, this series would be over. Furthermore, it’s not a case of weak goaltending hurting Minnesota either. Darcy Kuemper is rock solid in net but again, every bounce has gone the Avs way, as Kuemper has not allowed a soft goal and nothing suggests that he will.
You can’t keep getting outplayed by such a wide margin and expect positive results. In the two games in Minnesota, the Wild outshot the Avalanche 46-22 and 32-12 respectively. Nothing is going to change here except the margin of victory for Minnesota is likely going to be by two, three or four goals. Even the outstanding goaltending of Semyon Varlamov is not going to bail the Avs out in Minnesota because the Wild are so much better and they’re hungry like wolves. Bet with confidence here because Minnesota will not be denied a chance to win this series in Colorado in Game 7.
COLUMBUS +115 over Pittsburgh
OT included. Do we really have to go over this again? Do the Penguins really deserve to be favored in Columbus just because they finished much higher in the standings? The regular season proves nothing. Just ask St. Louis, who would have much rather finished eighth and played Anaheim instead of Chicago. We could write an entire book on why the NHL regular season and playoff format is a complete farce but that’s an argument for another time. The issue at hand here is this series and while Pittsburgh has deserved every win, so, too, have the Jackets and it would be unreasonable to think the Jackets can’t win this game.
In that respect, we have to play the value. Columbus has played better at home than they have at the Igloo. They have at least a 50% chance of taking this back to Pittsburgh and a valid argument could be made that the Jackets have a better than 50% chance of winning. However, Pittsburgh is favored because the oddsmakers have all the data on which teams are taking all or the majority of the money. Pittsburgh remains a hugely popular public team and so the oddsmakers are forced to make them the favorite. If this same Columbus team were wearing Red Wings, Bruins, Maple Leafs or Canadiens jerseys, Pittsburgh would not be favored. That once again brings us to value. Pittsburgh can no doubt win this game, only a fool would think otherwise. However, all the value remains on the home team because like we mentioned earlier, the Jackets chances of winning may be better. That’s the way we’ve played this series throughout and we’re not about to change now.
