| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -0.78 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 39 | 0.00 | -3.38 |
| Season to Date | 65 | 79 | 0.00 | +11.66 |
EDMONTON +132 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. Since starting the year off with a misleading 16 wins in its first 21 games, it comes as no surprise to us that the Rangers have lost six of their last eight games. It comes as no surprise because New York’s analytical numbers said regression was inevitable. Analytics revealed the Rangers shooting % was off the charts but it has normalized recently. Their save % was off the charts too and that is beginning to normalize also. The Rangers were winning games despite spending most of the game in their own end and that, too caught up to them. Now, instead of winning after spending most of the game in its own end, New York is losing after spending most of the game in its own end. The Rangers rank 28 out of 30 teams in Corsi against. Incidentally, Corsi is the most popular advanced stat in the hockey blogosphere and it’s a possession metric. The Rangers two victories over their last eight games occurred against Ottawa and Carolina. Ottawa ranks dead last in Corsi against and Carolina ranks dead last in save %. Carolina outshot the Rangers 36-22. The Rangers are still 18-11 and the market considers them as a top-5 team in the East. The market is wrong.
By contrast, the market gives the Oilers little credit. To give you an example of that we need not look any further than last week’s back-to-back games by the traveling Sabres. On Saturday, Buffalo played in Edmonton and the Sabres were taking back +106. The next night, Buffalo was in Vancouver and taking back +184. Do you see how ludicrous that is? Edmonton is superior to Vancouver. The Oilers are winning games with great goaltending, hard work and some nifty playmaking. Edmonton deserves way more credit for stepping it up in the absence of Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot and Nail Yakupov. The Oilers have won four in row, five of six and have picked up points in six of seven. Edmonton ends a five-game home stand here. They are undefeated so far and could make it a perfect home stand with a win here so one can expect Rexall Place to be rocking tonight. These Oilers fans are greatly appreciative of hard work and the desire to win and these Oilers feed off it. This is a ridiculous line that has no merit whatsoever.
NEW JERSEY +102 over Detroit
OT included. This looks like a trouble spot for the Red Wings. Last Saturday, Detroit played Nashville in what was a highly intense affair that ended with the Red Wings scoring the last three goals of the game and winning it in OT, 5-4. The Red Wings would subsequently play two more intense games this week against Washington and Montreal. They lost to Washington in OT on Tuesday and defeated the Habs last night at the Joe, 3-2. Two late third period goals lifted the Red Wings to that victory. That’s three intense games in succession that all came right down to the wire and were full of emotion. Detroit will now travel to New Jersey to play its third game in four nights and they’ll have two full days off after it. No weekend games for the Red Wings means a rare easy weekend and it’s likely something they are all looking forward to. Petr Mrazek started last night which suggests Jimmy Howard likely starts tonight. Should this game go to OT, our chances increase because Howard has won just six of his last 25 games that have gone to a shootout.
The Devils are coming off a couple of sloppy games against Toronto and Florida in which they were outshot by a combined 73-45. That’s not Devils hockey and we can assure you that it has been addressed. Despite that, New Jersey picked up three out of a possible four points during that span and the main reason is because of the great goaltending by Cory Schneider every night. Devils hockey begins with their defense and its great attention to detail. They may have gotten away with sloppy play against Florida and Toronto but they will not against the speedy Wings. The Devils frustrate teams with their ability to limit scoring chances and wait for opportunities. They do not give the opposition much space to set up scoring opportunities or odd man rushes. The Devils rank second to the Kings in Corsi against, which reveals again just how difficult they can be to play against. The Devils are a rock-solid 4-3 against top-10 teams and they’re 8-5 against top-16 teams. The market does not realize just how tough the Devils have been to defeat this year and until an adjustment is made, we’re happy to play this team at home without having to lay anything in this favorable scheduling spot.
Philadelphia +215 over DALLAS
OT included. Philadelphia goes into St. Louis last night and plays a near flawless first two periods to take a 3-1 lead into the final frame. The Flyers played on their heels in the third, trying to protect the lead instead of going for the kill and it nearly cost them the game. The Flyers added an empty netter to make the final 4-2. Philly has now won six of its past eight road games. Philadelphia’s shooting percentage, which was at a league low 7.4% in mid-November is starting to get the same bounces as the other teams are getting. In other words, the Flyers early bad luck is starting to even out. Last night, Claude Giroux’s line had two goals and six points. Before last night’s game we had mentioned the improved play of Philly’s defense with Shayne Gostisbehere, Evgeny Medvedev and Michael Del Zotto. Well, you can add the physical play of Radko Gudas to that list of improved defensemen. Once again wins and losses have influence on the line. Philadelphia was grossly undervalued last night and they are undervalued again here. The Flyers are playing so well but get little credit for it.
Dallas has five regulation losses in 28 games. The Stars are a very good hockey team and maybe even a contender for the Cup but it takes a ton of luck to lose just five times in regulation in 28 games. What’s even more remarkable about that is that the Stars goaltending is weak so they have to be extra lucky to win that many games in this day of great parity. In its last game, Dallas was very lucky again when Cam Ward couldn’t stop a puck. Dallas scored four times on its first eight shots and it was 4-0 early. Carolina outshot the Stars, 30-20 and eventually tied it up, 5-5. With 18 seconds left and on a PP, Dallas scored the game winner. Six goals on 20 shots in a game they had no business winning. That’s just one game but there are a bunch more that Dallas won that has a similar ring to it. Don’t get us wrong. The Stars are offensively potent and very capable of outscoring any team that nets four on them. However, weak goaltending in this league is a killer and it’s not like the Stars have a great defense to compensate. Dallas ranks 24th in Corsi against. Its goaltenders save % percentages rank 23rd. The Stars defensive numbers and goaltending numbers are weak, which does not equate to a team playing .750. The Stars are very simply not going to maintain this winning pace with weak goaltending and with the amount of scoring chances that they allow. Dallas can absolutely win this game. Hell, they can even win it by a wide margin. However, we’re not in the prediction business. We are looking for undervalued and overvalued teams and in this case both we get both. Mismatches are priced in this range but this is not a mismatch.
All plays are for 2 units
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