Virginia Tech -4
Virginia Tech -2.5 1st H
Middle Tennessee State +16
Middle Tennessee State +8.5 1st H
Marquette +3 -104
Marquette +1.5 1st H
Marquette +140
Marquette +110 1st H
Valparaiso +26.5
Valparaiso +14.5 1st H
My favorite is Marquette as imo should be laying 4-5 pts in this spot. Old Dominion's record looks nice but they play in a weak conference & padded their record against inferior competition while Marquette played in the super tough Conf USA & handled themselves quite well. They should win by 5-10 points so any points are an added bonus in my eyes.
Middle Tennessee State is one of these teams no one really knows about but they've played some decent competition & hung with some bigger teams so they won't be intimidated by the Lady Tar Heels & should hang around quite easily & possibly pull an upset. I wouldn't be surprised if they did.
Valparaiso is a team that in my opinion is getting too many points. The Big 12 bias is showing with some of these ridiculous lines. I've been betting against the Big 12 so far & it has proved profitable. Valpo comes out of a weak conference but is battle tested against some quality teams including one of my picks to win the whole tournament Purdue when they lost by 11 to them. They played some decent games against the likes of Oregon, Villanova, Notre Dame, & Depaul & all covered this # & some of those teams imo are on par with Kansas State if not better. I think they stay within 20 the whole game.
Virginia Tech -2.5 1st H
Middle Tennessee State +16
Middle Tennessee State +8.5 1st H
Marquette +3 -104
Marquette +1.5 1st H
Marquette +140
Marquette +110 1st H
Valparaiso +26.5
Valparaiso +14.5 1st H
My favorite is Marquette as imo should be laying 4-5 pts in this spot. Old Dominion's record looks nice but they play in a weak conference & padded their record against inferior competition while Marquette played in the super tough Conf USA & handled themselves quite well. They should win by 5-10 points so any points are an added bonus in my eyes.
Middle Tennessee State is one of these teams no one really knows about but they've played some decent competition & hung with some bigger teams so they won't be intimidated by the Lady Tar Heels & should hang around quite easily & possibly pull an upset. I wouldn't be surprised if they did.
Valparaiso is a team that in my opinion is getting too many points. The Big 12 bias is showing with some of these ridiculous lines. I've been betting against the Big 12 so far & it has proved profitable. Valpo comes out of a weak conference but is battle tested against some quality teams including one of my picks to win the whole tournament Purdue when they lost by 11 to them. They played some decent games against the likes of Oregon, Villanova, Notre Dame, & Depaul & all covered this # & some of those teams imo are on par with Kansas State if not better. I think they stay within 20 the whole game.
Northwestern State +50
Northwestern State +28 1st H
This might sound weird but I think Northwestern State might have a slight advantage in this game. They played Duke on their home floor & lost by 52 earlier in the season. They caught Duke at a bad time since they had just come off a 16 pt loss which was closer then that to a good team in Arkansas 2 nights before. Since that Duke loss, they have gone 19-3 after starting out the season 2-3.
Lets be serious here, these ladies know they don't have a chance in winning this game but having played them earlier this year & getting blasted by 52, I think they will show some pride & atleast better that & all I need is a bucket improvement for a push. Unlike earlier this season when these teams met up, Duke has no motivation to blow these ladies out. They will have a tough game in the 2nd rd against the Marquette-Old Dominion winner & aren't going to mess around going all out for this game which is a lock for them.
Northwestern State +28 1st H
This might sound weird but I think Northwestern State might have a slight advantage in this game. They played Duke on their home floor & lost by 52 earlier in the season. They caught Duke at a bad time since they had just come off a 16 pt loss which was closer then that to a good team in Arkansas 2 nights before. Since that Duke loss, they have gone 19-3 after starting out the season 2-3.
Lets be serious here, these ladies know they don't have a chance in winning this game but having played them earlier this year & getting blasted by 52, I think they will show some pride & atleast better that & all I need is a bucket improvement for a push. Unlike earlier this season when these teams met up, Duke has no motivation to blow these ladies out. They will have a tough game in the 2nd rd against the Marquette-Old Dominion winner & aren't going to mess around going all out for this game which is a lock for them.
Valparaiso +14 2nd H
I know technically I shouldn't do this as I have the dog +26.5 & this 2nd H line makes them +20 for the game but I can't pass it up. How shitty must K State feel, they are shooting 60% compared to Valpo's 37% & they only are up 5. This game is in Valpo's grasp & they imo are the more confident team going into the 2nd H. They are playing an ok game & easily hanging around with a top club & have a quality chance of winning outright. They are showing they are up for the challenge & won't be satisfied with just looking good out there. I like to back confident teams especially in the 2nd H & Valpo has that look to them. They also are hitting their FT's & have K-State in foul trouble. Good free throw shooting down is golden to have when on a dog.
Over 67.5 Valparaiso-Kansas State 2nd H
These two teams combined for 76 points in the 1st H with ok shooting from Valpo & great shooting by K State. I think the #'s will eventually even out & they should easily be able to put up 68 in the 2nd H. Plus another good thing on the over's side is the fact that both teams are racking up the fouls & hitting their FT's. If this game stays close late like I think it will, that will only help the cause even more.
I know technically I shouldn't do this as I have the dog +26.5 & this 2nd H line makes them +20 for the game but I can't pass it up. How shitty must K State feel, they are shooting 60% compared to Valpo's 37% & they only are up 5. This game is in Valpo's grasp & they imo are the more confident team going into the 2nd H. They are playing an ok game & easily hanging around with a top club & have a quality chance of winning outright. They are showing they are up for the challenge & won't be satisfied with just looking good out there. I like to back confident teams especially in the 2nd H & Valpo has that look to them. They also are hitting their FT's & have K-State in foul trouble. Good free throw shooting down is golden to have when on a dog.
Over 67.5 Valparaiso-Kansas State 2nd H
These two teams combined for 76 points in the 1st H with ok shooting from Valpo & great shooting by K State. I think the #'s will eventually even out & they should easily be able to put up 68 in the 2nd H. Plus another good thing on the over's side is the fact that both teams are racking up the fouls & hitting their FT's. If this game stays close late like I think it will, that will only help the cause even more.
Middle Tennessee State +12
I like the way the Blue Raiders are playing in the 1st H. They aren't shooting too well & still played good enough to have a 9 point lead at HT. I think the HT line looks too easy as it is asking a dd fav to just win by 3.
MTS is only shooting 41% & I think that can improve in the 2nd H. They also have the advantage of having 5 less fouls then the Tar Heels so they should get more chances at the FT line where they are a perfect 7-7.
If they play the same exact half they should be able to pull off the upset win like I said earlier wouldn't surprise me.
Over 68 Middle Tennessee State-North Carolina 2nd H
Both teams didn't shoot too well in the 1st H with MTS at 41% & NC at 33% & were still able to put up 61 points. I don't think it is far fetched to expect improved shooting in the 2nd H & we only need an additional 8 points for a win.
I like the way the Blue Raiders are playing in the 1st H. They aren't shooting too well & still played good enough to have a 9 point lead at HT. I think the HT line looks too easy as it is asking a dd fav to just win by 3.
MTS is only shooting 41% & I think that can improve in the 2nd H. They also have the advantage of having 5 less fouls then the Tar Heels so they should get more chances at the FT line where they are a perfect 7-7.
If they play the same exact half they should be able to pull off the upset win like I said earlier wouldn't surprise me.
Over 68 Middle Tennessee State-North Carolina 2nd H
Both teams didn't shoot too well in the 1st H with MTS at 41% & NC at 33% & were still able to put up 61 points. I don't think it is far fetched to expect improved shooting in the 2nd H & we only need an additional 8 points for a win.
Hampton +12 2nd H
Ok Hampton clearly looked nervous in the 1st H & the pressure got to them. It didn't help that they shot 18% & Penn State shot 61% I don't think this keeps up whatsoever. This # will give me Hampton +45 & I feel comfortable with that. The Nittany Lions know they will have a tough game against the Hokies in Blacksburg on Tuesday so I think they take it easy & be happy with the easy win. They did what they needed to do.
Northwestern State +22 2nd H
The same principle applies here. NW St looked nervous at first since this is their 1st nationally televised game. Duke shot 48% in the 1st H which I'm sure was helped by the fact they are playing on their home court but I'm not getting into that gripe right now. They have a tough game against Marquette on Tuesday so I think they coast in the 2nd H & take the 35-40 point win. This 2nd H # also puts Duke at -50 for the game & I've noticed that when a 2nd H line asks a favorite to cover the original game line, it falls short most times. I'm banking on that happening again.
Ok Hampton clearly looked nervous in the 1st H & the pressure got to them. It didn't help that they shot 18% & Penn State shot 61% I don't think this keeps up whatsoever. This # will give me Hampton +45 & I feel comfortable with that. The Nittany Lions know they will have a tough game against the Hokies in Blacksburg on Tuesday so I think they take it easy & be happy with the easy win. They did what they needed to do.
Northwestern State +22 2nd H
The same principle applies here. NW St looked nervous at first since this is their 1st nationally televised game. Duke shot 48% in the 1st H which I'm sure was helped by the fact they are playing on their home court but I'm not getting into that gripe right now. They have a tough game against Marquette on Tuesday so I think they coast in the 2nd H & take the 35-40 point win. This 2nd H # also puts Duke at -50 for the game & I've noticed that when a 2nd H line asks a favorite to cover the original game line, it falls short most times. I'm banking on that happening again.
