New Mexico is an outstanding 11-3 ATS the last 14 times they have had extra time to prepare for a game!!! However, they are a poor 8-14-1 ATS vs non-conference foes under current HC Long. New Mexico is 1-1 ATS in bowl games under Long (both as dogs) and played in this same bowl game LY, 13-27 loss to UCLA as +10’ dogs. You have to love teams that can run the ball and defend the run and New Mexico does both extremely well. The Lobos rank in our Top 10 in both rush offense and rush defense, the only team to do so. The Lobo offensive line is huge (average 6’4” 320 lbs!!!) and RB Moore has breakaway ability, setting the school record for TD’s in a season this year. New Mexico will show a commitment to the run as they averaged 48 rush attempts per game, 223 ypg, and 4.6 ypc. However, the New Mexico rush offense will face a tough test here as the Oregon St. rush D allowed only 91 ypg rushing this season and 2.6 ypc. The Lobos play a 3-3-5 scheme defensively and Oregon St. did not face that type of D all season. HC Long’s defense loves to blitz and come at you from multiple angles out of multiple alignments; they have led the MWC in sacks for 4 straight seasons. Their defense puts a lot of pressure on the QB, can be tough to prepare for, and may cause problems for a QB who is prone to mistakes like OSU’s Andersen. In addition to pressuring the QB the Lobos can also stop the run and allowed only 80 ypg rushing, 2.5 ypc, and only 19.6 ppg TY. However, the Lobo defense will face a tough task as well because OSU running back Jackson is as good as any in the nation. The Beaver offense can be potent but QB Andersen completed only 50% of his passes and threw more INT’s (24) than TD’s (22) this season. His TO’s and poor play killed the Oregon St. offense all season. The key to this game will be the Beaver OL, if they can call the correct blocking schemes, pick up the blitz, and create running lanes for RB Jackson he’ll have a good day and their offense will be productive. If the running game gets shut down and they have to rely solely on QB Andersen, they may be in for a long day. The strength of the Oregon St. defense was their secondary. The Beavers finished in my Top 10 in pass defense and allowed only 44% completions and 21 TD’s with 19 INT’s vs a very tough schedule of opposing QB’s. They should have success vs a Lobo offense that struggled to throw the ball this season. Oregon St. is 1-2 ATS in bowls since ’99, all as a favorite, and were 0-3 ATS this year vs non-conference foes, all as a favorite. The Beavers went 1-4 SU on the road this season and play much better at home. They now must face a New Mexico team that should be very familiar with this environment as they played in this bowl last season and play in the same conference as the home team, UNLV. The Lobos were hot coming down the stretch (7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS to end the season) and now get to face a Oregon St. team that struggled vs quality oppenents TY. Those of you who have been with me all season know that I love this New Mexcio team and that I rode them all season, so why stop now? With extra time to prepare, excellent HC Long should have the Lobos ready to go and we’ll call the outright upset!!!
COACHING ADV. – NEW MEXICO SPECIAL TEAMS ADV. – NEW MEXICO FUNDAMENTAL ADV. – OREGON ST.
OFFENSIVE ADV. – OREGON ST. SITUATIONAL ADV. – NEW MEXICO INTANGIBLES – NEW MEXICO
DEFENSIVE ADV. – NEW MEXICO NUMERICAL ADV. – NEW MEXICO
PLAY – NEW MEXICO +3
COACHING ADV. – NEW MEXICO SPECIAL TEAMS ADV. – NEW MEXICO FUNDAMENTAL ADV. – OREGON ST.
OFFENSIVE ADV. – OREGON ST. SITUATIONAL ADV. – NEW MEXICO INTANGIBLES – NEW MEXICO
DEFENSIVE ADV. – NEW MEXICO NUMERICAL ADV. – NEW MEXICO
PLAY – NEW MEXICO +3
