2nd Half ML Plays on losing home favorites?

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

Anyone track the winning % of bets like these?

Take the 76ers tonight. Down 12 at halftime, despite being favored to win the game. (And playing at home).

At the Greek they were -280 ML for the 2nd half. I about took it, but backed out. But don't these seem like about the easiest winners one can find? They have to hit at least 75% of the time, no?

Anyway, just an angle I'm thinking about playing a lot this season...will track it a few games and see how it does...

 

[homedawg]

i actually took all the home teams yesterday ats as they were all losing. went 2-3, but would have went 4-1 on the ml. just don't think it would be profitable with that vig over the long run

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

What if you did it with home favs losing by double digits at half?

 

[homedawg]

What if you did it with home favs losing by double digits at half?

they would hit at a high percentage, but the juice will kill you in the long run

 

[Uno]

noles the key here is how much vig is on the wager... not that they may be big favorites but at the least i would imagine you are facing 20 cents of vig if not 30... that would make this a waste of your time.

with that said i have not looked into it.

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

Alright, another qualifier:

Combine this system with martingale? I really can't imagine home favorites losing by double digits at the half getting outscored in the 2nd half by their road underdog opponent more than say, 4 or 5 times in a row.