2nd half bet system (bowls)

[letsgohoosiers]

I've been doing this all season and had success. So let me share with you what I've been doing.

I love playing 2H bets. At halftime, you can gauge momentum, predict what teams are going to do much easier than before the game.

The key stat for me is yardage. Who is moving the ball? Who is controlling the game? I look at who has the more yardage and bet on that team.

Here's the halftime yardage numbers for the bowls so far, the spreads, and the results:

Wake Forest vs Navy
1H yards = 184-139
2H bet = Wake Forest +3 (WINNER)

Colorado St vs Fresno St
1H yards = 317-264
2H bet = Colorado St +1 (WINNER)

USF vs Memphis
1H yards = 283-197
2H bet = USF -3.5 (WINNER)

BYU vs Arizona
1H yards = 210-209
2H bet = No play due to even yardage

Southern Miss vs Troy
1H yards = 264-154
2H bet = Southern Miss +3 (WINNER)

TCU vs Boise State
1H yards = 246-124
2H bet = TCU -4 (WINNER)

Notre Dame vs Hawaii
1H yards = 330-98
2H bet = Notre Dame -2.5 (WINNER)

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Good looking out!

 

[ACEWHO]

Time of possesion usually would be a huge factor unless they have huge plays. But that is great information!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

90% of the time Vegas doesn't put much thought into their lines at halftime. They rush them and get them out there. The lines are always close to the initial line of the game, usually divided by half, and using 1H statistics/information you can figure out who the winner already is. Many times you can hedge your bet and hope for a middle. I hit that middle when I took Boise State +3.5 and the 2H line was TCU -4.

I'll use this thread to post my 2H plays the rest of the bowl season. I'm a lousy handicapper (picked Hawaii initially, picked Troy initially, absolutely blow at NFL/NBA/NCAAB) but have always been able to get back my initial bets with the 2H plays. Never thought I would end up "tracking" plays on this forum.

I also bet small units. Really small. So small you'll be asking why I gamble. I have no job currently, thousands of dollars in student loans, and a maxed out credit card. I don't have money to lose and cash out whenever I get to a decent balance.

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

90% of the time Vegas doesn't put much thought into their lines at halftime. They rush them and get them out there. The lines are always close to the initial line of the game, usually divided by half, and using 1H statistics/information you can figure out who the winner already is. Many times you can hedge your bet and hope for a middle. I hit that middle when I took Boise State +3.5 and the 2H line was TCU -4.

I'll use this thread to post my 2H plays the rest of the bowl season. I'm a lousy handicapper (picked Hawaii initially, picked Troy initially, absolutely blow at NFL/NBA/NCAAB) but have always been able to get back my initial bets with the 2H plays. Never thought I would end up "tracking" plays on this forum.

I also bet small units. Really small. So small you'll be asking why I gamble. I have no job currently, thousands of dollars in student loans, and a maxed out credit card. I don't have money to lose and cash out whenever I get to a decent balance.

Thanks for all the information & help you have & are providing, we all appreciate it very much! Keep your head up, things will turn around for you if you keep at it, good luck with finding a job!

 

[billbeater]

who knows hoosier, you could be the next smack-daddy-dizzle!!!!!!

jobs are overrated.... Best of Luck! :toast:

 

[sparticus]

lghoosiers, as asked above are you using total yards of rushing & passing combined ? What site do you use for halftime stats? Thanks in advance.

 

[DaDegenerate]

thanks for the info hoosier, just curious if kept any record of what this did in the games you bet during the season. Ill probably throw some money on this trend as it is looking nice so far

 

[billbeater]

total yards i believe, since either way they are moving the ball better....

 

[kingking]

looking forward to this! thanks man!!:toast::toast:d1g1t:wink:arty:ope:

 

[billbeater]

can somebody go back like 5 years and provide a breakdown of this system?
:toast:

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Oh crap, people are actually reading ths! :missingte

Ok, let me respond to the questions. Wow, I have a following? You guys should look at some of my recent picks before you hop aboard!

I am using total yards for the first half. How I am compiling the past statistics is clicking on the "Drive Chart" on ESPN, and just adding up the first half drives. The only time I don't add a drive is in a INT return or fumble return for TD. For some strange reason, ESPN doesn't record an INT return for TD as yardage but they do include a fumble return for TD as yardage. Still, when I'm placing bets, I want offensive output, and turnover yards isn't offensive output.

I wanted to check the "system" (sure, we'll call it that) on past weeks. It's been great in the bowls, great when I'm playing it. It is a pain in the rear end to compile the data, so I only did the last 2 weeks.

WEEK 14

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 389pt;" width="515" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 91pt;" width="121"> <col style="width: 83pt;" width="110"> <col style="width: 32pt;" span="2" width="42"> <col style="width: 26pt;" width="34"> <col style="width: 65pt;" width="86"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 91pt;" width="121" height="20">AWAY TEAM</td> <td style="width: 83pt;" width="110">HOME TEAM</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">A YDS</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">H YDS</td> <td style="width: 26pt;" width="34">DIFF</td> <td style="width: 65pt;" width="86">2H TEAM BET</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">SPR</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">RES</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Western Michigan</td> <td>Ball State</td> <td align="right">175</td> <td align="right">266</td> <td align="right">91</td> <td>Ball State</td> <td align="right">-3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Navy</td> <td>Northern Illinois</td> <td align="right">201</td> <td align="right">117</td> <td align="right">84</td> <td>Navy</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Texas A&M</td> <td>Texas</td> <td align="right">58</td> <td align="right">255</td> <td align="right">197</td> <td>Texas</td> <td align="right">-17</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">West Virginia</td> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td align="right">75</td> <td align="right">235</td> <td align="right">160</td> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Central Mich</td> <td>Eastern Mich</td> <td align="right">379</td> <td align="right">372</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Central Mich</td> <td align="right">-8</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Miss St</td> <td>Mississippi</td> <td align="right">24</td> <td align="right">314</td> <td align="right">390</td> <td>Mississippi</td> <td align="right">-7</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Ohio</td> <td>Miami (OH)</td> <td align="right">221</td> <td align="right">181</td> <td align="right">40</td> <td>Ohio</td> <td>PK</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">UTEP</td> <td>ECU</td> <td align="right">147</td> <td align="right">271</td> <td align="right">124</td> <td>ECU</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Kent</td> <td>Buffalo</td> <td align="right">215</td> <td align="right">162</td> <td align="right">53</td> <td>Kent</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">LSU</td> <td>Arkansas</td> <td align="right">272</td> <td align="right">167</td> <td align="right">105</td> <td>LSU</td> <td align="right">-3</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Bowling Green</td> <td>Toledo</td> <td align="right">262</td> <td align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">268</td> <td>BGSU</td> <td>PK</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Colorado</td> <td>Nebraska</td> <td align="right">226</td> <td align="right">236</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td>Nebraska</td> <td align="right">-10.5</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Fresno St</td> <td>Boise St</td> <td align="right">178</td> <td align="right">281</td> <td align="right">103</td> <td>Boise</td> <td align="right">-11</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">UCLA</td> <td>Arizona St</td> <td align="right">141</td> <td align="right">103</td> <td align="right">38</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
WK 15

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 340pt;" width="450" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 62pt;" width="83"> <col style="width: 68pt;" width="90"> <col style="width: 32pt;" span="2" width="42"> <col style="width: 26pt;" width="34"> <col style="width: 65pt;" width="86"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 30pt;" width="40"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 62pt;" width="83" height="20">AWAY TEAM</td> <td style="width: 68pt;" width="90">HOME TEAM</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">A YDS</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">H YDS</td> <td style="width: 26pt;" width="34">DIFF</td> <td style="width: 65pt;" width="86">2H TEAM BET</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">SPR</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">RES</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">MTSU</td> <td>La-Lafayette</td> <td align="right">215</td> <td align="right">205</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td>MTSU</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Louisville</td> <td>Rutgers</td> <td align="right">184</td> <td align="right">472</td> <td align="right">288</td> <td>Rutgers</td> <td align="right">-6</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Ball State</td> <td>Buffalo</td> <td align="right">214</td> <td align="right">241</td> <td align="right">27</td> <td>Buffalo</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Pittsburgh</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td align="right">36</td> <td align="right">97</td> <td align="right">61</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Tulsa</td> <td>East Carolina</td> <td align="right">241</td> <td align="right">171</td> <td align="right">70</td> <td>Tulsa</td> <td align="right">-7.5</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Navy</td> <td>Army</td> <td align="right">247</td> <td align="right">84</td> <td align="right">163</td> <td>Navy</td> <td align="right">-6</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">BC</td> <td>VT</td> <td align="right">157</td> <td align="right">152</td> <td align="right">5</td> <td>BC</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Washington</td> <td>Cal</td> <td align="right">67</td> <td align="right">325</td> <td align="right">258</td> <td>Cal</td> <td align="right">-14</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Alabama</td> <td>Florida</td> <td align="right">167</td> <td align="right">188</td> <td align="right">21</td> <td>Florida</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td>PUSH</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">USC</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td align="right">307</td> <td align="right">67</td> <td align="right">240</td> <td>USC</td> <td align="right">-17</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Arizona St</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td align="right">76</td> <td align="right">203</td> <td align="right">127</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td align="right">-7</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Missouri</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td align="right">137</td> <td align="right">356</td> <td align="right">219</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td align="right">-7.5</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">USF</td> <td>West Virginia</td> <td align="right">228</td> <td align="right">165</td> <td align="right">63</td> <td>USF</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Cincinnati</td> <td>Hawaii</td> <td align="right">202</td> <td align="right">177</td> <td align="right">25</td> <td>Cincinnati</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
BOWLS

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 352pt;" width="467" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 63pt;" width="84"> <col style="width: 72pt;" width="96"> <col style="width: 32pt;" span="2" width="42"> <col style="width: 26pt;" width="34"> <col style="width: 72pt;" width="96"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 30pt;" width="40"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 63pt;" width="84" height="20">AWAY TEAM</td> <td style="width: 72pt;" width="96">HOME TEAM</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">A YDS</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">H YDS</td> <td style="width: 26pt;" width="34">DIFF</td> <td style="width: 72pt;" width="96">2H TEAM BET</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">SPR</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">RES</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Wake Forest</td> <td>Navy</td> <td align="right">184</td> <td align="right">139</td> <td align="right">45</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Fresno St</td> <td>Colorado St</td> <td align="right">264</td> <td align="right">317</td> <td align="right">53</td> <td>Colorado St</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Memphis</td> <td>USF</td> <td align="right">283</td> <td align="right">197</td> <td align="right">86</td> <td>USF</td> <td align="right">-3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Arizona</td> <td>BYU</td> <td align="right">209</td> <td align="right">210</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>BYU</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Troy</td> <td>Southern Miss</td> <td align="right">264</td> <td align="right">154</td> <td align="right">110</td> <td>Southern Miss</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">TCU</td> <td>Boise St</td> <td align="right">246</td> <td align="right">124</td> <td align="right">122</td> <td>TCU</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Notre Dame</td> <td>Hawaii</td> <td align="right">330</td> <td align="right">98</td> <td align="right">232</td> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Alright, I'll try to sum up the games I bet on and why.

Arizona -7 (Week 15). Was watching this game and Arizona was the much better team. They had some bad breaks. End zone INTs resulting in points off the board, punter taking a knee rather than punting it resulting in ASU points. The reason they trailed at half was all because of bad breaks. Yardage was heavily in favor of them and I doubled down since I initially took Arizona.

Southern Miss +3 (Bowl week). The second you tuned into this game you could tell that USM was going to win it. I actually bet Troy -4. However, USM was the much bigger team, was enthusiastic to be playing the game, and moved the ball well. They had a big yardage edge at halftime yet were tied. Vegas loves to put the line when they are tied slightly under the initial spread without putting thought into it, and I pounced on USM.

TCU -4 (Bowl week). Again, I started betting on Boise. Thought +3.5 was good value (turned out it was). Tuned into the game and after the first 2-3 drives, you could just see the talent disparity. TCU had much better lines. They ran all over Boise, Boise couldn't do anything on offense, and you figured it would be a shift in momentum for TCU in the 2h. The line was -4, again, putting it back at the first line and TCU had a huge edge in yards but was down. Ended up winning both bets and was really happy!

Notre Dame -2.5 (Bowl week). I was on the other side AGAIN! I liked Hawaii and was basing it on ND being bad in certain games this year, never showing up in bowls, and how Hawaii was able to get under the skin of their opponents with personal fouls, was tough at home, played Cincy well, etc. Was way off here. ND was so great running the ball and in the lines. I don't really like playing games where one team has a decided advantage at halftime, however I saw the line play and the lack of offense from Hawaii and figured playing with a lead ND would be safe. They were. Actually the much larger bet was on the OVER 24, which was just ridiculously low for the 2H. You know you have a winner in betting if you see the books shifting the juice right after the bet.

OKAY, now as I mentioned, I don't like to play blowouts because of one team allowing garbage points and not trying anymore, and I avoid games with even yardage where there's isn't value. I'll apply that to this "system".

If you take out the games with "even yardage" (games where the differential was less than 40 yards), then you would have gone 20-6 (77%) over week 14/week 15/bowls. Oddly, in even yardage games, the team with less yardage is 7-1-1, so some may want to fade.

If you take out blowout games (games where the differential was 240 yards or more), then you would have gone 18-3 (86%) the past 3 weeks.

The key is to look for games that aren't too close in yardage, but not too large in yardage. Again, there's no substitute for watching it yourself and betting on the team with momentum.

I will post my plays here if you need help during the bowl games. Hope this was helpful to you all. BTW ACE WHO? your name is funny!

 

[BlindDate]

letsgohoosiers, took your numbers and crunched them a step further:

yardage that was 50 yards or less had a record of 3-7-1 (might be a good idea to layoff)

50-250 yard difference 16-4 record

250+ 2-2 record (another group worth giving more test time)

75-200 yards 11-1 (Impressive record!!!!)

Thanks for sharing and helping out - Happy Holidays!!

BD

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Thanks for the reply Blind Date! Great information.

miami sam, I've never really "tracked" myself, the only thing I really care about is my Sportsbook balance. I don't have a record, I'll start tracking here when I post plays.

Guys, I did week 13 today. Took about 2 hours to do this. Here's the table:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 417pt;" width="553" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 74pt;" width="98"> <col style="width: 75pt;" width="100"> <col style="width: 32pt;" span="2" width="42"> <col style="width: 26pt;" width="34"> <col style="width: 75pt;" width="100"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 78pt;" width="104"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 74pt;" width="98" height="20">AWAY TEAM</td> <td style="width: 75pt;" width="100">HOME TEAM</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">A YDS</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">H YDS</td> <td style="width: 26pt;" width="34">DIFF</td> <td style="width: 75pt;" width="100">2H TEAM BET</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">SPR</td> <td style="width: 78pt;" width="104">RES</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Northern Ill</td> <td>Kent St</td> <td align="right">226</td> <td align="right">134</td> <td align="right">92</td> <td>Northern Ill</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Ball State</td> <td>Central Mich</td> <td align="right">193</td> <td align="right">188</td> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Ball State</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Buffalo</td> <td>Bowling Green</td> <td align="right">64</td> <td align="right">195</td> <td align="right">131</td> <td>Bowling Green</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Fresno St</td> <td>San Jose St</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">113</td> <td align="right">93</td> <td>San Jose St</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">West Virginia</td> <td>Louisville</td> <td align="right">276</td> <td align="right">203</td> <td align="right">73</td> <td>West Virginia</td> <td align="right">-6</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NC State</td> <td>UNC</td> <td align="right">176</td> <td align="right">125</td> <td align="right">51</td> <td>NC State</td> <td align="right">7.5</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Army</td> <td>Rutgers</td> <td align="right">112</td> <td align="right">345</td> <td align="right">233</td> <td>Rutgers</td> <td align="right">-7</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Michigan</td> <td>Ohio St</td> <td align="right">79</td> <td align="right">162</td> <td align="right">83</td> <td>Ohio St</td> <td align="right">-10</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Clemson</td> <td>Virginia</td> <td align="right">150</td> <td align="right">113</td> <td align="right">37</td> <td>Clemson</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Tennessee</td> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td align="right">141</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">127</td> <td>Tennessee</td> <td align="right">-3</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">UCF</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td align="right">173</td> <td align="right">123</td> <td align="right">50</td> <td>UCF</td> <td align="right">-3</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Syracuse</td> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td align="right">159</td> <td align="right">165</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td align="right">-10</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Colorado St</td> <td>Wyoming</td> <td align="right">183</td> <td align="right">231</td> <td align="right">48</td> <td>Wyoming</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Tulane</td> <td>Tulsa</td> <td align="right">133</td> <td align="right">297</td> <td align="right">164</td> <td>Tulsa</td> <td align="right">-11</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Fla Atl</td> <td>Arkansas St</td> <td align="right">227</td> <td align="right">244</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td>Arkansas St</td> <td align="right">-3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Arkansas</td> <td>Mississippi St</td> <td align="right">208</td> <td align="right">228</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td>Mississippi St</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Washington</td> <td>Washington St</td> <td align="right">128</td> <td align="right">90</td> <td align="right">38</td> <td>Washington</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Illinois</td> <td>Northwestern</td> <td align="right">99</td> <td align="right">228</td> <td align="right">129</td> <td>Northwestern</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Stanford</td> <td>California</td> <td align="right">248</td> <td align="right">214</td> <td align="right">34</td> <td>Stanford</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Boston Coll</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td align="right">148</td> <td align="right">49</td> <td align="right">99</td> <td>Boston Coll</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Michigan St</td> <td>Penn St</td> <td align="right">125</td> <td align="right">272</td> <td align="right">147</td> <td>Penn St</td> <td align="right">-7</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Mississippi</td> <td>LSU</td> <td align="right">241</td> <td align="right">141</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>Mississippi</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Marshall</td> <td>Rice</td> <td align="right">198</td> <td align="right">147</td> <td align="right">51</td> <td>Marshall</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">UTEP</td> <td>Houston</td> <td align="right">261</td> <td align="right">333</td> <td align="right">72</td> <td>Houston</td> <td align="right">-10</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">North Texas</td> <td>MTSU</td> <td align="right">238</td> <td align="right">400</td> <td align="right">162</td> <td>MTSU</td> <td align="right">-6.5</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Iowa St</td> <td>Kansas St</td> <td align="right">314</td> <td align="right">306</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td>Iowa St</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Air Force</td> <td>TCU</td> <td align="right">59</td> <td align="right">306</td> <td align="right">247</td> <td>TCU</td> <td align="right">-8</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Boise St</td> <td>Nevada</td> <td align="right">313</td> <td align="right">133</td> <td align="right">180</td> <td>Boise St</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Louisiana Tech</td> <td>New Mexico St</td> <td align="right">224</td> <td align="right">297</td> <td align="right">73</td> <td>New Mexico St</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">BYU</td> <td>Utah</td> <td align="right">201</td> <td align="right">316</td> <td align="right">115</td> <td>Utah</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Duke</td> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td align="right">48</td> <td align="right">219</td> <td align="right">171</td> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td align="right">-7.5</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Oregon St</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td align="right">142</td> <td align="right">132</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td>Oregon St</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">East Carolina</td> <td>UAB</td> <td align="right">123</td> <td align="right">123</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td>East Carolina</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td>PUSH</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Iowa</td> <td>Minnesota</td> <td align="right">265</td> <td align="right">29</td> <td align="right">236</td> <td>Iowa</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Pittsburgh</td> <td>Cincinnati</td> <td align="right">96</td> <td align="right">188</td> <td align="right">92</td> <td>Cincinnati</td> <td align="right">-3</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">La-Lafayette</td> <td>Troy</td> <td align="right">176</td> <td align="right">251</td> <td align="right">75</td> <td>Troy</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">La-Monroe</td> <td>Fla Intl</td> <td align="right">224</td> <td align="right">225</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Fla Intl</td> <td align="right">-6.5</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">UNLV</td> <td>SDSU</td> <td align="right">139</td> <td align="right">244</td> <td align="right">105</td> <td>SDSU</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Florida St</td> <td>Maryland</td> <td align="right">165</td> <td align="right">136</td> <td align="right">29</td> <td>Florida St</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Idaho</td> <td>Hawaii</td> <td align="right">163</td> <td align="right">217</td> <td align="right">54</td> <td>Hawaii</td> <td align="right">-11</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Texas Tech</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td align="right">174</td> <td align="right">373</td> <td align="right">199</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td>WON</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Connecticut</td> <td>USF</td> <td align="right">80</td> <td align="right">142</td> <td align="right">62</td> <td>USF</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td>LOST</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
So currently, simply taking the team with the yardage edge at half, you will have won 63% of your games! That's a 47-28-2 record.

But we can do better!

If we eliminate the blowouts (50% when differential is 233 or above) and the even yardage (63% when differential is 70 or below - still not bad!), then we will have gone 27-8 the past 4 weeks which is 77%!

I've also noticed something else looking at the stats. You really want to find games where both teams are moving the ball. When both teams are above 188 yards, the team with the yardage edge covers in the 2nd half 92% of the time (12-1)!

Want a larger sample size? Take the formula from earlier, where we ignore the blowouts and ignore the even yardage. Take out the games where there is a team 64 yards or below, and we are 26-3 (90%)!

Lets get ready for CMU-FAU tonight!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Don't know why my post isn't editing correctly, probably server problems, but additional info is here. Underdogs who have the yardage edge at halftime are 21-4 (84%)!

 

[seanjohn007]

looking forward to this system. has anyone done test to c if this works for the nfl also? i could even see how this could work for other sports like basketball with shooting percentage.

when you say underdog, do you mean underdog for the game or underdog for the second half? since some games the underdog switched at half time.

seanjohn007

 

[QuittingWork]

Post it in this fau/cmu tilt.

Ty

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Owls 207 to 177.

+5.5 then?

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

line is C Michigan -5.5 for 2nd half

 

[aderol]

where did you get those numbers? you shouldn't count the -42 yards from the interception...