2nd half basketball betting

[GoUH]

I'm wondering if there is an edge to be found here. A while back, I used to bet big favs 1st half. For example, for the game Duke might be -18, but -9 first half. So I'd take Duke -9 first half. Then if they don't cover, take Duke again the 2nd half. Well, I soon discovered that this is a quick way to loose your money. So now I think the opposite.

Take this past weekend. RI -3 against Xavier. RI was down 8 at the half, and 2nd half line was -3.5. The old me would take RI -3.5, because they were favored before the game, -3.5 now seems like a bargain. They can lose the game by 3 and I'll still win the bet! BUT, as it turned out (as with many games), Xavier covered.

Here is my theory. The line is skewed because of public betting.

Before the above game was played, you had 3 types of people. 1) Bet on Xavier +3, 2) bet on RI -3 and 3) didn't bet. At the half, Xavier was up by 8 and the line was RI-3.5. People #1 bet Xavier, so they'll probably sit on their bet. People #2 won't bet Xavier for fear of being middled, if anything, they will bet RI-3.5 (if they liked RI -3 before the game, they love RI -3.5 (or RI +4.5 for game) for 2nd half. People #3 weren't moved by the line before the game, but gamblers love a bargain. They don't take Xav 2nd half, since they could have had them +3 at the game, or +160 ML. If they take +3.5 at the half, Xav can still win the game and lose the bet. RI-3.5 is the bargain of deal, if anything they lay off, or take the bargain. SOOOOOOOOOO, you have all the motivation for all people on RI-3.5 2nd half, and what happens? Xavier covers. Really though, who is motivated to take Xavier +3.5 at the half???? Who is betting that side???? Besides the sharps...

I've seen it happen time and time again. So now, I go against the public. If I see a team that was favored by 5-9 points and they are down 5-9 points at the half, I take the dog. Yes, the line usually comes out such that the dog must win SU to cover, but you know what, it happens more often than not.

Appreciate thoughts and contructive criticism. It really is a play against public and against your own gut feeling.

 

[GoUH]

I think this is a truth that is too scary to state, it's like a little secret that no one wants to talk about, and even if you know it, it's still hard to place the bet.

It's happening again today.

Chat -7 vs App St.

Halftime Chat 33, App St. 56

2nd half line, Chat -7.

Everyone jumps on Chat-7 (esp those that had Chat-7 game). I had App St. +7 game, so I sit tight. 2nd half:

Chat 44 App St. 38 (it was about even the whole second half until the last minute). App St. covered and everyone ate it.

Anyone have any stats on this sort of stuff?? Comments?

 

[genosays]

Good post GoUH .... have been starting to watch 2nd halfs of games more lately and kind of noticed the same thing you were discussing .... like Syr/MU game tonight everyone figured Missouri would come back and slice into Cuse lead but it didn't happen .... will have to watch these more carefully to try and get a feel for 2nd half plays. Thanks.

 

[jwunderdog]

I would be interested to know if anyone has run #s for a couple of seasons what the results would be?

 

[GoUH]

I don't know of anyone with #'s, but if there were anyone, I'd love to see them. I don't think people keep numbers on this sort of thing, it would be too time consuming since you would have to sit on a computer and see what the 2nd half lines were for each game. But because there aren't numbers on this sort of thing, that's why I think there is opportunity.

It's like betting favs or dogs. You bet a fav, they win but don't cover and it was a good pick, but bad luck. You bet a dog and they get blown out and don't cover, you're an idot.

People bet the 2nd half fav to come back and make ground to cover, when it comes in you feel pretty smart. If they don't, you feel like bad luck. BUT, to take the dog to win outright, and then when the fav comes back (as everyone expects them to) and wins, you're an idiot. Ergo, like betting dogs, the tougher bet is the right bet, or at least so I think.....

 

[NYSE]

I have this information for last season's games. Kept a large database...will check it out later this week and let you know what I come up with.

 

[sammythesage]

I think home teams down the 2nd half; regardless if fav. or esp. dogs are the play. look at kent/miss.st game. from tues. night.

 

[maxdemo]

I love to play halves....I have noticed that I have won more on 2nd halves. I think there is more value in betting the 2nd half than the first....good topic.

 

[GoUH]

NYSE, look forward to the data.

Max, questions is, do you bet the team that's down, or up? Again most people would bet the favorite that is down, I don't know many people that would bet the dog that is winning at the half. Most people would feel it's just dumb luck and the favorite team will come back in the 2nd half (which comes true alot of the times). But I think the books must shade the line some, so that the dog that is winning at the half has an edge.

I took Orlando +6 today at the half, they were beating Philly at the half by 10, as 6.5 point dogs.

 

[maxdemo]

GOUH;
I usually bet a fav that is down in the second half...but it matters which team. There are teams that are down..that are not good comeback teams. Since I play 80% of my wagers on 1st and 2nd half betting I also know team trends. I will track certain teams and their lines for the half and will make my plays based upon performance of that team. If I lose on a team than I am more likely to hit it hard the next time. It not the best method but for some reason it works for me.

 

[564837jk]

I've ben watching this for a couple of weeks, and at least for that time your post has been correct most of the time. Maybe you are on to something. Good thinking on your part. Thanks

 

[maxdemo]

The past week i have really been on a roll with 2nd halfs...10-2. The trend of playing a fav that is down at half time or a dog that is close at half time has been doing well for me...I use statfox and they have great half time info and trends.

 

[GoFSU]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sammy the sage:
I think home teams down the 2nd half; regardless if fav. or esp. dogs are the play. look at kent/miss.st game. from tues. night.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

i agree sammy. i love to bet on teams at home that are down. they tend to come out pumped up