2nd big play of season-Bengals?

[Matt24]

1-0 YTD +10 units +$500

Right now I am pondering another big play on the Cincinnati Bengals. It would be a for sure play if the line was +3, but only getting +2. Have to wait til sunday to see what it does.

The Cincinnati Bengals enter this game at 1-4, but shockingly, not out of the division race or the playoff picture. The Baltimore Ravens currently lead the division at 3-2, with the Browns at 3-3, and the Steelers at 2-4. If the Bengals are able to get by the Ravens, they will be at worst 1.5 games out of first place, with the Browns being 4-3, whom the Bengals hold a win over in Cleveland. So you see how the Bengals are still right in the race and they know that and will be ready to play, now for the unemotional reasons.

The Bengals enter this game ranked 9th defensively, while I believe the Ravens are #8. The Bengals are very strong against the pass, but havent played that well against the run at times. The Ravens did not look that great against the Cards and wouldn't have won the game if not for Jeff Blake's horrid play. (2 INTs inside the Ravens 30, one returned for TD, Ravens also scored TD from blocked punt)

As you can see, the offense hasn't been very special in Baltimore this year, Kyle Boller has been horrid and this week will not be any different as he goes up against the Bengals strong pass defense. CB Tory James has been a pro bowler so far this year and will be able to lock up 1 on 1 on his man(just like he did vs Rice, Ward, Burress, Moulds, -Moulds got away at the very end of the game and inflated his stats, but James played him strong) This will allow the Bengals to load up against the run and contain Jamal Lewis.

Corey Dillon will be highly motivated and will run very strong this game opening up Chad Johnson who will have a big day. The Bengals win this one in the end 20-16.

How bout some feedback from everyone, what do you guys think? Right now I plan on putting $300 on this most likely.

 

[THEBUFFROCK]

I tend to agree with you, but like you said, would LOVE to see a 3

 

[xpanda]

According to Covers.com, Bodog, WSEX, and BetCom have moved their lines to 2.5. Incidentally, the total (on covers main page) has moved from 37 to 36.5.

The home dog and the over may prove to be a decent play.

 

[lewis]

Matt

I already have Cincy +2 -102 as one of my top plays this week as I feel that if Cincy doesn't turn the ball over that they will win this game SU. Check my thread for other reasons that I have. Anyway good luck

lewis

 

[ChadC]

-Cincinnati are 7-14-0 ATS in their last 21 games
-Cincinnati are 1-9-0 ATS in their last 10 home games
-Cincinnati are 3-7-0 ATS in their last 10 home games against Baltimore
-Cincinnati are 1-6-0 ATS in their last 7 games against Baltimore

 

[lewis]

ChadC

Those are all great stats but those don't belong to a Marvin Lewis coached team. They belong to the Coach before him. If you are on Balt you might have a winner but here is something to think about. If you have those stats and everyone else has those stats and the Ravens are in 1st place in their division and the Bengals are in last place. Why is the line only Balt -2? I could be wrong about this game and have been many times but it looks way too easy! and usually when it looks too easy it isn't!

good luck either way

lewis

 

[ChadC]

I think the line is sitting on 2 because of an overreaction by the public. Because the Bengals last game was a tight one against Buffalo everyone thinks the Bengals are on the way back up. But I think Buffalo was finally exposed for the fraud team I called them in week 1 but everyone got mad at me. Oh, and they went to OT with the Raiders. The Raiders might be the worst team in football right now. You never do know what could happen from week to week, but I think their is a much bigger reason to take Baltimore then the Bungals.

 

[winkyduck]

line is now -1.5

gonna be on the ravens

 

[Oren1]

yeah I'm on the Ravens as well, as one of my rules of thumb is never bet on the Bungles. And getting a good line like this with a good team in the Ravens, I also like to bet against them. I'll admit their defense looks much improved this year, they might make it interesting. The Ravens specialize on capitalizing on their opponents mistakes, and the Bengles seem to specialize in making self-destructive mistakes in the 4th quarter.

 

[KMAN]

If the Bengals can stop Lewis than you guys on the Bengals are right, however I don't think they will be able to so I'll be on the Ravens.

GL,
KMAN

 

[Journeyman]

no way this goes to 3...

 

[Oren1]

yeah it's actually been going th eother way. Doesn't seem mlogical that the public would be on the Bengals, I mean come on, the Bills have looked like crap for a few weeks now..

 

[Matt24]

The Ravens have beaten the likes of the Browns, Cards, and Chargers, not exactly quality wins. They did play the Chiefs close but weren't able to generate any offense against the Chiefs defense. I don't know I just dont view the Ravens as that great of a team, if they had a passing game at all, they could be really good. I think the Ravens front office screwed up this year, with a decent QB, they are a super bowl contender possibly. With Boller, they aren't close.

 

[Oren1]

Boller is definitely the wild card in this match-up, as he is in all their games. If they had a more experienced Q.B. they probably would have beaten the Chiefs.

 

[Oorang]

I think the Ravens should make a move for Mark Brunell. An experienced QB could replicate Trent Dilfer's success and get this team a lot farther this year than Boller would. Baltimore was my top play last week over the Cardinals. But you have to admit that if Jeff Blake doesn't turn the ball over this game is close. Let's not forget the Cardinals are possibly the worst team in football. That being said, I don't see how the Ravens is a solid play unless their defense does it again. Boller looks too tight. In fact, Boller knows that to be successful he just needs to "run this offense" and not make any mistakes. Hard to grow if you can't make any mistakes.

The Ravens are the better team overall with their strong offensive line and strong running game, experience winning and coaching. The Bengals are still the Bungals but are showing improvements.

Good luck.

 

[winkyduck]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Oorang:
I think the Ravens should make a move for Mark Brunell. An experienced QB could replicate Trent Dilfer's success and get this team a lot farther this year than Boller would.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

only one problem - nfl trading deadline was tuesday - so getting brunell TY won't happen - and brunell is hurt, too. getting him for next season as a backup is OK - because boller will be fine by next season.

 

[ChadC]

Nothing gives a rookie QB more confidence then a trip to Cincinatti. He's probably lounging around all relaxed right now.

 

[Matt24]

would be odd to be lounging around going up against the #6 pass defense in the league, but who knows Kyle Boller is so great, he just might be. Bengals allowing one of the lowest completion % in the league(3rd) and 5th least TD passes. Boller will not do anything.

 

[baller123]

i feel that bet with the bengals u have there matt is very poor u have a better chance taking the vikings againest the a denver team with no qb bad pick have to be insane to take the bengels with a rusty running back like dillon who will be to tired to affect this game.

 

[Matt24]

Why would Dillon be tired?