2H Under System Plays

[WildGeneral]

As some of you know, I've been putting together an extensive spreadsheet on NCAABB over the past 3 weeks...

...over that time, I've discovered a pattern on 2H unders that is hitting at ~ 75%!

Today, I'll be posting them whenever they present themselves...I'm not always available to share them as they come in, so I'm hoping that today will yield similar results.

I will update as the day progresses with all picks...the window of opportunity is short due to them only being 2H lines, so check back often...

BOL to each of you and let's win some cash!

 

[WildGeneral]

First play of the day...thanks to upward line movement, this game became a late 2H play:

Pitt/Notre Dame: 2H, Under 80

BOL!

 

[WildGeneral]

Not a great way to start the day...but let's keep rolling:

Northern Iowa/Indiana State: 2H, Under 68.5

BOL!

 

[WildGeneral]

Next:

Memphis/Houston: 2H, Under 78.5

BOL!

 

[seanjohn007]

god job so far general. ill be looking for you later on today.

seanjohn007

 

[WildGeneral]

Doing OK so far at 2-1...need another winner to keep up the current winning percentage.

Next bet:

UCF/Tulane: 2H, Under 70.5

 

[WildGeneral]

Next play:

Kentucky/South Carolina: 2H, Under 77.5

 

[WildGeneral]

A little bad luck with that overtime game...won by 12.5 in regulation, but OT cost the win.

2-3 thus far today...not good, but the day isn't over just yet.

Nothing since Kentucky...I've been watching. I will update when there is a play.

 

[WildGeneral]

Been waiting awhile for one...here it is:

Wisconsin-Green Bay/Loyola-Chicago: 2H, Under 72

 

[WildGeneral]

Another one:

Middle Tennessee State/UL-Monroe: 2H, Under 73.5

BOL!

 

[WildGeneral]

Add another:

Southern Miss/UTEP: 2H, Under 76

 

[WildGeneral]

Another play:

New Mexico State/Hawaii: 2H, Under 75.5

 

[WildGeneral]

OK...that's a wrap. ...an abysmal day. Only one day worse that today in the past 3 weeks...it figures that I picked today to share all picks, as they happened.

Oh well, I can't be discouraged...the numbers are still quite far ahead.

Final tally today: 3-6 (-3.3 units)

 

[WildGeneral]

Two plays out of the first 3 games:

Penn State/Michigan State: 2H, Under 75

St. Joes/Dayton: 2H, Under 70

 

[WildGeneral]

2-0 today...more like what I've been experiencing, overall record is still WAY less than what I've been witnessing...

5-6 overall.

Fade if you wish...follow if you believe.

 

[Dolphins950]

2-0 today...more like what I've been experiencing, overall record is still WAY less than what I've been witnessing...

5-6 overall.

Fade if you wish...follow if you believe.

Please explain the system you are using.

 

[papicker]

it has to involve shooting %s of some sort

 

[WildGeneral]

Please explain the system you are using.

While I want to keep the exact details of the system to myself, I am happy to share what I've based it upon...

...essentially, I put special emphasis on the 'whole game' betting lines and analyze the differential at halftime. The spreadsheet generates a predicted half-time line for the over/under and I compare that to what is actually released. The line 'differential' is either a positive or negative value...I look for negative values that fall within a certain range (-10 to -15, in this case). If the numbers are less (< -10) or more (> -15), the winning percentage drops significantly...but this range of values has picked winners consistently.

As I've said in another thread, I've been looking at this system for nearly a month now and it is 44-21 over that time...which works out to about 66%.

 

[WildGeneral]

I'm also analyzing some other data that was generated from the same spreadsheet...

...I noticed another trend on 2H totals and that 'other' system is 49-30 (61%) over the same period of time. I'm still tweaking that system, though, because I think I can get more out of it, if I look a little more at the numbers.

If/When I get that one running, I'll continue to share picks.

 

[TheJackal]

I'm also analyzing some other data that was generated from the same spreadsheet...

...I noticed another trend on 2H totals and that 'other' system is 49-30 (61%) over the same period of time. I'm still tweaking that system, though, because I think I can get more out of it, if I look a little more at the numbers.

If/When I get that one running, I'll continue to share picks.

WildGeneral, here is something for you to consider. If you have two systems that generally are picking in the 60s, take a look at their consensus picks. What I've found, is that when you have two successful systems that agree on a pick you may get an increase of a few % on those picks. For example, the consensus picks for the 61% and 67% systems may produce 69% winners. There is your new system. If the consensus picks alone do not generate enough action, then continue to play all picks from the other systems but increase your units when there is a consensus.