+29.1 YTD Loudon 6/29 picks

[nascarphenom]

Yo fellas! Been MIA past few weeks with crashed computer at home. I am back in action now and LOVE this race coming up in New Hamphire!
There are some great dark horses available early!!

Early Pick

Truex Jr 18-1 (Sportsbook) 2 units

He had the car to beat here last year. Hamlin and Gordon took advantage of a late caution and took 2 tires to finish 1-2. Truex in 3rd had the field covered. Great value here at 18-1


Truex Jr 5-1 (Sportsbook) Top 3 Finish 4 units

My best bet of the week here!


Bowyer 5-1 (thegreek) Top 3 Finish 2 units

Bowyer DOMINATED and WON this race last year in the fall. Led 222 laps. I dont know how you cant take aguy at 5-1 to finish in the top 3 the following year at the same track.



Thats it for early picks. Ill take a look at practice speeds and go from there. More to come later, but do yourself a favor and invest in the early picks!!!

 

[nascarphenom]

Yo fellas! Been MIA past few weeks with crashed computer at home. I am back in action now and LOVE this race coming up in New Hamphire!
There are some great dark horses available early!!

Early Pick

Truex Jr 18-1 (Sportsbook) 2 units

He had the car to beat here last year. Hamlin and Gordon took advantage of a late caution and took 2 tires to finish 1-2. Truex in 3rd had the field covered. Great value here at 18-1


Truex Jr 5-1 (Sportsbook) Top 3 Finish 4 units

My best bet of the week here!


Bowyer 5-1 (thegreek) Top 3 Finish 2 units

Bowyer DOMINATED and WON this race last year in the fall. Led 222 laps. I dont know how you cant take aguy at 5-1 to finish in the top 3 the following year at the same track.



Thats it for early picks. Ill take a look at practice speeds and go from there. More to come later, but do yourself a favor and invest in the early picks!!!

correction to thread title....I am +21.9 YTD, not +29.1....little dyslexia kickin in. Want to correct it before one of you unit Nazi's bashed me for paddin stats

 

[Boxer22]

I bet on Nascar here and there. Any shot Vickers breaks out this week and wins his first? He has looked fast in the last couple of races (Not including last weeks road race). Im liking what I see right now at 35-1.

 

[BigPapaPat]

Vickers as a driver has been strong, I am concerned about his crew...just doesnt seem like his pit crew and team is keeping up with him

I personally wouldnt make that bet but I can see why you would want to

 

[Boxer22]

Vickers as a driver has been strong, I am concerned about his crew...just doesnt seem like his pit crew and team is keeping up with him

I personally wouldnt make that bet but I can see why you would want to

http://www.nascar.com/2008/news/hea...allenge/index.html?eref=/rss/drivers/jmontoya

 

[nascarphenom]

Vickers as a driver has been strong, I am concerned about his crew...just doesnt seem like his pit crew and team is keeping up with him

I personally wouldnt make that bet but I can see why you would want to

Agreed. Vickers team has shown great horsepower in recent weeks. But races are won and lost in the pits. This is the reason that Johnson and Kenseth turn shitty cars into top 5's and 10's each week.

I would take Vickers in some matchups, but wouldnt waste my time with winning odds. Could pay off, but unlikely

EVERYONE BET THE TRUEX JR TOP 3 FINISH AT +500!!

 

[Boxer22]

Agreed. Vickers team has shown great horsepower in recent weeks. But races are won and lost in the pits. This is the reason that Johnson and Kenseth turn shitty cars into top 5's and 10's each week.

I would take Vickers in some matchups, but wouldnt waste my time with winning odds. Could pay off, but unlikely

EVERYONE BET THE TRUEX JR TOP 3 FINISH AT +500!!

Didn't Vickers' pit crew win the pit challenge?

 

[BigPapaPat]

Pit Crew challange is different then actually going out and doing it...Kind of like a homerun derby, you maybe able to smack the shit out of a ball in a controled setting, but come gametime its alot harder...A buddy and I where talking about Vickers pits the week before last and if you watch them they are visually slower then some of the other teams

 

[nascarphenom]

Didn't Vickers' pit crew win the pit challenge?

yeah, the pit crew challenge also includes 8 men pushing the car 30 yards after putting on the tires....if vickers guys have to push the car 30 yards after every pit stop, ill give you 20000-1 odds he doesnt win the race

great comparison to the homerun derby

 

[Boxer22]

Pit Crew challange is different then actually going out and doing it...Kind of like a homerun derby, you maybe able to smack the shit out of a ball in a controled setting, but come gametime its alot harder...A buddy and I where talking about Vickers pits the week before last and if you watch them they are visually slower then some of the other teams

Okay I understand now. Any shot of Dale Junior winning this week?

 

[nascarphenom]

Okay I understand now. Any shot of Dale Junior winning this week?

He seems to have a top 10 car each week, but not capable of winning. He won his race a couple weeks ago of fuel strategy. He is on pace to be in the running for a championship with great top 5's, but Ive yet to see him have the "dominate" car in a race.

Id only take Jr at 12-1+ He'll never be that though b/c too many rednecks bet Jr every week b/c hes the face of nascar and most fans adore him. I rarely even look his way unless it is at a restrictor plate race or his practice times are insanely good

 

[Boxer22]

He seems to have a top 10 car each week, but not capable of winning. He won his race a couple weeks ago of fuel strategy. He is on pace to be in the running for a championship with great top 5's, but Ive yet to see him have the "dominate" car in a race.

Id only take Jr at 12-1+ He'll never be that though b/c too many rednecks bet Jr every week b/c hes the face of nascar and most fans adore him. I rarely even look his way unless it is at a restrictor plate race or his practice times are insanely good

Yes I know he won his race due to strategy. If it wouldn't have went to caution I believe Kahne would have caught him, and if Nascar didn't screw Vickers and make him start behind Martin, I think he would have caught him. So that makes me want to bet Junior even more because i'm convinced he is going to win a race soon by having the best car. And not by luck.

 

[nascarphenom]

Yes I know he won his race due to strategy. If it wouldn't have went to caution I believe Kahne would have caught him, and if Nascar didn't screw Vickers and make him start behind Martin, I think he would have caught him. So that makes me want to bet Junior even more because i'm convinced he is going to win a race soon by having the best car. And not by luck.

He may very well win a race soon by having the best car....but I cant bet it at 5-1 or 6-1 if I have yet to see any signs pointing that way

Now is the time of year that ol Tony Stewart starts lighting it up. Hamlin and Busch have both had dominate cars many times this year....its about time for the other Toyota in Gibbs racing to get to victory lane. watch out for the #20 in the next couple months....he'll win 2-3 races

 

[Boxer22]

After watching qualifying anyone have any new drives they like? I dont think the winner will come from a top 10 starter.

 

[nascarphenom]

After watching qualifying anyone have any new drives they like? I dont think the winner will come from a top 10 starter.

Don't go off qualifying efforts in picking a winner. Those times are solely based off what they can do on a 2 lap "balls all out" run.....means nothing to when they have their car set up for race conditions. Average practice speeds are your best indicator for cars.

Dale Jr, Truex and Harvick look pretty good in race trim. Montoya does too, but im not sold on him

 

[bookieskatrina]

Anyone like kenseth? He has had such a great car this year but cannot get in the circle. Really thought if DE runs out of gas MK takes that race. Would have been close. Anyway, the number is good. I am rolling with MK.

 

[nascarphenom]

Anyone like kenseth? He has had such a great car this year but cannot get in the circle. Really thought if DE runs out of gas MK takes that race. Would have been close. Anyway, the number is good. I am rolling with MK.

I have to disagree a little bit there. MK hasn't had much of anything to drive this year. He finally had a decent run 2 weeks ago, and may have very well won if it wasn't for fuel strategy. The absense of his crew chief of years past has really affected his cars each week. MK is too talented of a driver to not win races, and he eventually will, but I just havent seen too much coming from changes in the pits to take him quite yet.

I will take him sometime when his car unloads of the truck and is flying. But until that time, not enough value in him yet

I think Sorenson will be good value in a top 3 finish. He has finished good here in years past and has a good car so far. He will be my value bet when odds come out later tonight

 

[NCSUFan333]

What do you think of Ryan Newman at 35-1? He's had many great runs at this track over the years. I believe this is where he picked up his first career win too. Just food for thought.

 

[nascarphenom]

What do you think of Ryan Newman at 35-1? He's had many great runs at this track over the years. I believe this is where he picked up his first career win too. Just food for thought.

other than the 2 races in 2007, you can throw all history out the door. These new cars are a different animal and handle completely different. Now some have a "nack" about this place, but if you have shitty equipment, nacks mean nothing


Looking like Jr and Harvick look to have the strongest cars going into the race tomorrow.....Kurt Busch has a good one as well....thats the best value play (not to mention he REALLY knows his way around Louden 2 time winner!!!)

ill post my final card later tonight or in the morning

 

[Boxer22]

other than the 2 races in 2007, you can throw all history out the door. These new cars are a different animal and handle completely different. Now some have a "nack" about this place, but if you have shitty equipment, nacks mean nothing


Looking like Jr and Harvick look to have the strongest cars going into the race tomorrow.....Kurt Busch has a good one as well....thats the best value play (not to mention he REALLY knows his way around Louden 2 time winner!!!)

ill post my final card later tonight or in the morning

I personally wouldn't waste my money on Kurt Busch.