week 0: 1-2 -1U
probably an overreaction to a single game- but interested in how helmet coms will impact totals this year... was on the tech fsu with 2 QBs who put the ball in danger historically and two offenses I thought could have success. But through the course of the game it seemed both teams were taking full advantage of the headset comms and running the play clock down to 15 seconds. I wonder if we'll see lower totals as coaches talk through pre snap with QBs and help limit turnovers and short fields resulting from them. Don't want to overreact to week 1- but something I'll be watching
probably an overreaction to a single game- but interested in how helmet coms will impact totals this year... was on the tech fsu with 2 QBs who put the ball in danger historically and two offenses I thought could have success. But through the course of the game it seemed both teams were taking full advantage of the headset comms and running the play clock down to 15 seconds. I wonder if we'll see lower totals as coaches talk through pre snap with QBs and help limit turnovers and short fields resulting from them. Don't want to overreact to week 1- but something I'll be watching
1U Miami -2.5
A road trip to the swamp to start the season is not an ideal way to start a season, but I’ll lay the 2.5 with the canes. I anticipate they can control the line of scrimmage, specifically offensively. If the offensive line can win the line of scrimmage they should be able to move the ball consistently and hit few big plays with against the gator defense that lost its top pass rusher. On the other side of the ball, I think FL is going to miss more than the line indicates with losing Pearsall and Etienne If Miami can get off to a hot start in this one, they can quickly take an anxious Gator crowd out of the game.
2U Miami/ FL Under 54
Based on the reasons above- I expect both teams to slow the game down and run the playclock down. I thought this number would be in the low-mid 40s, not the 50s.
2U TAMU -3
This line stinks to me, but trying not to overthink an early season line. The line essentially indicates a pick-em with the points for home field. I understand the Irish defense can make things difficult for the Aggies. However, I’m not sure that ND will be able to block the Aggies. Replacing two NFL tackles is a difficult task for any program.. but tack on an injury and all of a sudden you’re playing guys that would have been buried on last years depth chart. Now make that happen in a hostile road environment- I think this will be tough sledding for the Irish. Riley Leonard is going to be put into some difficult situations in his first start as the Irish QB and I don’t personally believe he’s great to begin with. This just feels like a tall order for the Irish and I’m laying the points. I lean under on this one as well and may play that.
1U GA -12
Under two TDs, I’ll lay it with the dawgs. Clemson has too many questions for me. Is Cade Clubnik get the job done? Can they hold up on the line of scrimmage? Can they get pressure on Beck? Do they have the talent and depth to hang in there for a 60 minute fight? I don’t think any of those land in their favor. Clemson will have a fine season- but GA should be stronger across the line of scrimmage, they have the better QB, and Etienne may be the best back they’ve had in a few years.
1U Mich -21
Fresno isn’t necessarily a push over and they’re a team Michigan can’t get caught looking past with Texas on deck. However, a few angles work in their favor. I don’t think Fresno can block michigan- they are undersized up front and going to play one of the nations top defensive lines- even if Graham is banged up this is a difficult task for Fresno. Second, Michigan has a QB battle on their hands- and they need to have QB figured out in a hurry. So i think even if they build a significant lead, they will run the offense to see their QBs get live reps and use it to assess the job going forward. I think MI will cover comfortably as Fresno will struggle to move the ball consistently and Michigan will not hesitate to continue to score late as they give their QBs quality reps.
few other potential plays
A road trip to the swamp to start the season is not an ideal way to start a season, but I’ll lay the 2.5 with the canes. I anticipate they can control the line of scrimmage, specifically offensively. If the offensive line can win the line of scrimmage they should be able to move the ball consistently and hit few big plays with against the gator defense that lost its top pass rusher. On the other side of the ball, I think FL is going to miss more than the line indicates with losing Pearsall and Etienne If Miami can get off to a hot start in this one, they can quickly take an anxious Gator crowd out of the game.
2U Miami/ FL Under 54
Based on the reasons above- I expect both teams to slow the game down and run the playclock down. I thought this number would be in the low-mid 40s, not the 50s.
2U TAMU -3
This line stinks to me, but trying not to overthink an early season line. The line essentially indicates a pick-em with the points for home field. I understand the Irish defense can make things difficult for the Aggies. However, I’m not sure that ND will be able to block the Aggies. Replacing two NFL tackles is a difficult task for any program.. but tack on an injury and all of a sudden you’re playing guys that would have been buried on last years depth chart. Now make that happen in a hostile road environment- I think this will be tough sledding for the Irish. Riley Leonard is going to be put into some difficult situations in his first start as the Irish QB and I don’t personally believe he’s great to begin with. This just feels like a tall order for the Irish and I’m laying the points. I lean under on this one as well and may play that.
1U GA -12
Under two TDs, I’ll lay it with the dawgs. Clemson has too many questions for me. Is Cade Clubnik get the job done? Can they hold up on the line of scrimmage? Can they get pressure on Beck? Do they have the talent and depth to hang in there for a 60 minute fight? I don’t think any of those land in their favor. Clemson will have a fine season- but GA should be stronger across the line of scrimmage, they have the better QB, and Etienne may be the best back they’ve had in a few years.
1U Mich -21
Fresno isn’t necessarily a push over and they’re a team Michigan can’t get caught looking past with Texas on deck. However, a few angles work in their favor. I don’t think Fresno can block michigan- they are undersized up front and going to play one of the nations top defensive lines- even if Graham is banged up this is a difficult task for Fresno. Second, Michigan has a QB battle on their hands- and they need to have QB figured out in a hurry. So i think even if they build a significant lead, they will run the offense to see their QBs get live reps and use it to assess the job going forward. I think MI will cover comfortably as Fresno will struggle to move the ball consistently and Michigan will not hesitate to continue to score late as they give their QBs quality reps.
few other potential plays
Some early plays:
2U Clemson/APP Under 53.5- Clemson has offensive issues, not that a date with GA was helpful, but I do think the offense still has problems. While some might see this as an offensive get right opportunity, I expect App state to show up motivated and ready to give Clemson a fight, maybe not on the scoreboard, but they won't lie down like some programs. On the other side of the ball, I do think it'll be rough sledding for App.. so give me this to be a low scoring affair.
1U Iowa -3 &
1U Iowa State Under 16.5 points
I'll buy the Iowa offense for now- even though it took them a half to get things rolling against much less superior competition. However, the defense should continue to be elite and Iowa state doesn't scare me much on offense. I do think the Cyclones held a lot back last week in anticipation of this game, but I wouldn't anticipate them putting up multiple scores on Iowa. Therefore, I will take Iowa to cover and the under on Iowa state team total. Don't let me down again Cade.
1U Oregon -20.5
I'm anticipating a bounce back week for Oregon. Oregon had some guys held out for injury last week, specifically Bedford. While not guaranteed, it sounds like he may go this week... probably precautionary against Idaho. Boise looked like Swiss cheese defensively last week, so I don't imagine them stopping Oregon much- especially if Oregon can clean up penalties on 3rd down. While Boise impressed offensively last week- I don't think they'll have anywhere near the same success against oregons defense .. I think Oregon will be motivated to shut this one down early and remind people they should be part of the national championship conversation.
1U UCF -20.5 (-130)
bought the point here for some insurance. SH off a big upset might add some value to the line. However, they got ahead early and forced rice to be more one-dimensional, but still surrendered 4 YPC. I imagine UCF will be able to push them around and run the ball again this week and despite not needing to air it out last week, I believe they'll be able to push the ball downfield against a secondary that didn't look great minus a few ezy takeaways. I'll lay them under 3 tds
Eyeing a few more - I'll post more tomorrow
2U Clemson/APP Under 53.5- Clemson has offensive issues, not that a date with GA was helpful, but I do think the offense still has problems. While some might see this as an offensive get right opportunity, I expect App state to show up motivated and ready to give Clemson a fight, maybe not on the scoreboard, but they won't lie down like some programs. On the other side of the ball, I do think it'll be rough sledding for App.. so give me this to be a low scoring affair.
1U Iowa -3 &
1U Iowa State Under 16.5 points
I'll buy the Iowa offense for now- even though it took them a half to get things rolling against much less superior competition. However, the defense should continue to be elite and Iowa state doesn't scare me much on offense. I do think the Cyclones held a lot back last week in anticipation of this game, but I wouldn't anticipate them putting up multiple scores on Iowa. Therefore, I will take Iowa to cover and the under on Iowa state team total. Don't let me down again Cade.
1U Oregon -20.5
I'm anticipating a bounce back week for Oregon. Oregon had some guys held out for injury last week, specifically Bedford. While not guaranteed, it sounds like he may go this week... probably precautionary against Idaho. Boise looked like Swiss cheese defensively last week, so I don't imagine them stopping Oregon much- especially if Oregon can clean up penalties on 3rd down. While Boise impressed offensively last week- I don't think they'll have anywhere near the same success against oregons defense .. I think Oregon will be motivated to shut this one down early and remind people they should be part of the national championship conversation.
1U UCF -20.5 (-130)
bought the point here for some insurance. SH off a big upset might add some value to the line. However, they got ahead early and forced rice to be more one-dimensional, but still surrendered 4 YPC. I imagine UCF will be able to push them around and run the ball again this week and despite not needing to air it out last week, I believe they'll be able to push the ball downfield against a secondary that didn't look great minus a few ezy takeaways. I'll lay them under 3 tds
Eyeing a few more - I'll post more tomorrow
2U USC/Utah State Under 63.5
Going to take this one here- USC off a big win and a short week, I don't imagine they'll look to put much more on tape or be super motivated to run it up ahead of a bye week and trip to AA. USC defense looked improved and I think they'll be able to get stops on Utah State. I don't see USC pushing the pace here, more of a get in, put it away, get out.
Going to take this one here- USC off a big win and a short week, I don't imagine they'll look to put much more on tape or be super motivated to run it up ahead of a bye week and trip to AA. USC defense looked improved and I think they'll be able to get stops on Utah State. I don't see USC pushing the pace here, more of a get in, put it away, get out.
2U Nebraska -6.5
Line dropped to under a touchdown. If Nebraska can take care of the ball they should cruise to victory here. Colorado continued to look weak and inconsistent along the line of scrimmage, If Nebraska can force them to be one dimensional like NDSU did- it may be a long day for them. It was very unimpressive on the ground last week for the buffs and I would imagine the huskers will present more issues for them. On the other side of the ball, I think the buskers can get the run game going and control the pace on this one.
Line dropped to under a touchdown. If Nebraska can take care of the ball they should cruise to victory here. Colorado continued to look weak and inconsistent along the line of scrimmage, If Nebraska can force them to be one dimensional like NDSU did- it may be a long day for them. It was very unimpressive on the ground last week for the buffs and I would imagine the huskers will present more issues for them. On the other side of the ball, I think the buskers can get the run game going and control the pace on this one.
